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Author Topic: latest Betfair odds  (Read 118501 times)
Torie
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« Reply #725 on: April 04, 2016, 10:16:52 AM »
« edited: April 04, 2016, 10:18:34 AM by Torie »

Can someone remind me why Torie's avatar is red?

Local reasons, but I really consider myself more or less a true independent now. The GOP is in a bad place in general right now - a very bad place. The Dems are not any better. I like Ryan because he's smart, principled, issue focused, genial, works well with others, and relatively reasonable and pragmatic. That makes him sadly rather unusual in the Pub party these days, among those with much profile at least.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #726 on: April 04, 2016, 10:29:49 AM »

Can someone remind me why Torie's avatar is red?

Local reasons, but I really consider myself more or less a true independent now. The GOP is in a bad place in general right now - a very bad place. The Dems are not any better. I like Ryan because he's smart, principled, issue focused, genial, works well with others, and relatively reasonable and pragmatic. That makes him sadly rather unusual in the Pub party these days, among those with much profile at least.

The GOP is broken, and it's probably best for everyone if big business and mainstream members of the Republicans and Democrats started a new party.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #727 on: April 05, 2016, 01:19:54 AM »

Final pre-Wisconsin update: Ryan and Sanders are on the move….

Democrats
Clinton 85.5
Sanders 14.5
Biden 2.5

Republicans
Trump 51.3
Cruz 26.3
Kasich 12.5
Ryan 7.0
Romney 1.2
Rubio 1.2
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #728 on: April 05, 2016, 01:22:29 AM »

Nine days ago, Ryan's price was only 2.4, so anyone who put money on him then made a good deal of $.  How high will he go?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #729 on: April 05, 2016, 01:37:25 AM »

Nine days ago, Ryan's price was only 2.4, so anyone who put money on him then made a good deal of $.  How high will he go?


If Cruz sweeps Wisconsin, Ryan should start getting close to 10.
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cinyc
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« Reply #730 on: April 05, 2016, 07:03:47 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2016, 07:06:42 PM by cinyc »

Trump is down on the prediction markets in the hour before the polls close in Wisconsin.  On PredictIt, Trump's lead is down to 2 cents over Cruz, 39c to 37c.  Paul Ryan is at 18c, John Kasich at 9c and Mitt Romney at 5c.  Trump and Cruz have been bobbing up and down a lot on PredictIt, though.

On all of the Betfair Exchange websites, including Betfairpredicts.com, Trump is below 50%.  He is at 49% on betfairpredicts.com, 45.9% on Oddschecker and 45.5% on the actual Betfair Exchange (last purchase price).
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cinyc
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« Reply #731 on: April 05, 2016, 08:08:51 PM »

Cruz and Trump are now tied at 38c on PredictIt.  But trading there (and on Betfair Exchange) has been very volatile.
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cinyc
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« Reply #732 on: April 05, 2016, 11:20:09 PM »

PredictIt has calmed down a bit, and Trump regained his lead, 42c to 33c for Cruz.  Ryan is at 16c, Kasich 9c and Romney 3c. 

Trump is under 50% in all of the Betfair metrics, but not as much as he was as the early results were coming in.
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Matty
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« Reply #733 on: April 05, 2016, 11:22:33 PM »

PredictIt has calmed down a bit, and Trump regained his lead, 42c to 33c for Cruz.  Ryan is at 16c, Kasich 9c and Romney 3c. 

Trump is under 50% in all of the Betfair metrics, but not as much as he was as the early results were coming in.

what do you think changed as night went on?

I'm amazed frankly that he is so high on betfair still.
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cinyc
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« Reply #734 on: April 05, 2016, 11:39:38 PM »

what do you think changed as night went on?

I'm amazed frankly that he is so high on betfair still.

People on PredictIt came to their senses after panic selling, and figured the Wisconsin loss was already baked into the results.  The prediction markets always overreact to every little campaign event for a while after significant or insignificant events.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #735 on: April 06, 2016, 06:25:42 AM »

As noted upthread, Trump crashed pretty hard for a while and then partially recovered, but he is still below 50 now.

Up: Cruz
Down: Sanders, Trump, Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 85.5
Sanders 13.4
Biden 2.3

Republicans
Trump 49.8
Cruz 27.7
Kasich 10.5
Ryan 7.0
Romney 1.1
Rubio 1.1
Bush 0.8
Haley 0.5
Walker 0.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 65.8
Trump 12.5
Sanders 8.4
Cruz 6.2
Kasich 3.4
Biden 2.1

Four years ago today on Intrade (which was also just after the Wisconsin primary):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3255090#msg3255090

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #736 on: April 07, 2016, 05:55:19 AM »

Trump recovers enough to put him over 50 again, as Ryan takes a hit.

Up: Trump, Cruz
Down: Kasich, Ryan

Democrats
Clinton 86.2
Sanders 13.8
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 51.8
Cruz 30.5
Kasich 9.1
Ryan 4.5
Rubio 1.1
Romney 0.8
Bush 0.3
Haley 0.3
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°Leprechaun
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« Reply #737 on: April 07, 2016, 02:44:50 PM »

Sanders odds went up about 26% in just a week. If he continues to rise he could get the nomination. He is far behind but with a little more good news he could catch up with two months to go. We are at the half way point tomorrow. So there is a lot more reason to hope than most people realize. The fuzzy math showing his odds so low should not be trusted.

He is now about even with Clinton in national polls.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #738 on: April 07, 2016, 02:46:17 PM »

Sanders odds went up about 26% in just a week. If he continues to rise he could get the nomination. He is far behind but with a little more good news he could catch up with two months to go. We are at the half way point tomorrow. So there is a lot more reason to hope than most people realize. The fuzzy math showing his odds so low should not be trusted.

He is now about even with Clinton in national polls.

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #739 on: April 07, 2016, 02:48:02 PM »

Sanders odds went up about 26% in just a week. If he continues to rise he could get the nomination. He is far behind but with a little more good news he could catch up with two months to go. We are at the half way point tomorrow. So there is a lot more reason to hope than most people realize. The fuzzy math showing his odds so low should not be trusted.

He is now about even with Clinton in national polls.

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.
It's all guess work as far as I am concerned. Nobody really knows. Neither do I.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #740 on: April 08, 2016, 08:54:26 AM »

Kasich takes a hit...

Democrats
Clinton 87.0
Sanders 13.4

Republicans
Trump 52.1
Cruz 31.0
Kasich 7.5
Ryan 4.5
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #741 on: April 08, 2016, 08:59:55 AM »

Sanders odds went up about 26% in just a week. If he continues to rise he could get the nomination. He is far behind but with a little more good news he could catch up with two months to go. We are at the half way point tomorrow. So there is a lot more reason to hope than most people realize. The fuzzy math showing his odds so low should not be trusted.

He is now about even with Clinton in national polls.

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

I'm starting to think me making so much money this year has little to do with me being knowledgeable and much more to do with Sanders people (and establishment Republicans in the case of Bush) being so completely deluded that it's impossible not to make money.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #742 on: April 08, 2016, 02:37:23 PM »

I'm starting to think me making so much money this year has little to do with me being knowledgeable and much more to do with Sanders people (and establishment Republicans in the case of Bush) being so completely deluded that it's impossible not to make money.

Are they so deluded that they would bet their money on Sanders rather than donate to the campaign?

Not us.  Me.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #743 on: April 08, 2016, 02:45:06 PM »

Can someone remind me why Torie's avatar is red?

Local reasons, but I really consider myself more or less a true independent now. The GOP is in a bad place in general right now - a very bad place. The Dems are not any better. I like Ryan because he's smart, principled, issue focused, genial, works well with others, and relatively reasonable and pragmatic. That makes him sadly rather unusual in the Pub party these days, among those with much profile at least.

The GOP is broken, and it's probably best for everyone if big business and mainstream members of the Republicans and Democrats started a new party.

It won't be good for them.

If there is one thing made abundantly clear, it's that a status-quo party for the corporations and wealthy is going nowhere. When we had two of them, they could pretend to oppose each other, but if there's just one it will start losing.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #744 on: April 08, 2016, 02:52:36 PM »

I wonder why Cruz isn't higher at this point.  The odds of reaching a contested convention are greater than 50% and his chances of winning if that comes to pass are significantly greater than 50%.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #745 on: April 08, 2016, 03:11:28 PM »

The GOP is broken, and it's probably best for everyone if big business and mainstream members of the Republicans and Democrats started a new party.

It won't be good for them.

If there is one thing made abundantly clear, it's that a status-quo party for the corporations and wealthy is going nowhere. When we had two of them, they could pretend to oppose each other, but if there's just one it will start losing.

The way we got here is that they pretended to oppose each other using social wedge issues and race-baiting.  When the culture and demographics of the country shifted, 2/3 of the country ended up on one side of the wedge, 1/3 on the other.  Which destabilized the entire political ecosystem.

Add a whopper of a recession, an education bubble, a rapidly evolving jobs market, globalization, and wealth concentration, and you have a perfect storm of anger.  But what are the major parties supposed to do about it?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #746 on: April 09, 2016, 05:33:17 AM »

Democrats
Clinton 86.2
Sanders 13.8
Warren 2.4
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 52.6
Cruz 32.4
Kasich 6.4
Ryan 2.9
Rubio 1.1
Romney 0.6
Bush 0.4
Jindal 0.3
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President Johnson
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« Reply #747 on: April 09, 2016, 10:41:25 AM »

TRUMP will be back in the 70s after his decisive win in New York.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #748 on: April 10, 2016, 06:03:13 AM »

Up: Cruz, Ryan
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 86.3
Sanders 13.4
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 50.8
Cruz 34.7
Kasich 5.8
Ryan 4.0
Rubio 0.8
Romney 0.6
Bush 0.4
Haley 0.2
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cinyc
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« Reply #749 on: April 10, 2016, 07:12:03 PM »

Trump is back above 50c on PredictIt, after briefly flirting with a tie with Cruz in the 30s last week.  As of right now, Trump is at 51c, Cruz 32c, Ryan 11c and Kasich 10c.
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