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Author Topic: latest Betfair odds  (Read 118492 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #675 on: March 25, 2016, 09:43:59 PM »

Up: Kasich
Down: Trump, Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 91.7
Sanders 7.5
Biden 1.8

Republicans
Trump 71.9
Cruz 12.8
Kasich 6.2
Ryan 2.8
Bush 0.6
Romney 0.4
Walker 0.3
Perry 0.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3243116#msg3243116

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1505062#msg1505062

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #676 on: March 27, 2016, 05:05:09 AM »

Sanders gets a bump out of his latest wins.

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 9.5
Biden 1.8

Republicans
Trump 71.4
Cruz 13.1
Kasich 6.4
Ryan 2.4
Bush 0.7
Romney 0.4
Perry 0.2
Walker 0.2
Rubio 0.2
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IceSpear
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« Reply #677 on: March 27, 2016, 02:12:34 PM »

So Hillary is 4 below what presumptive nominee McCain was. I take it this means the market doesn't think the odds of indictment are very high. but muh indictment right around the corner!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #678 on: March 30, 2016, 02:57:54 AM »

Susana-mentum.  Tongue

Up: Sanders, Kasich, Ryan, Martinez
Down: Clinton, Trump

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 10.7

Republicans
Trump 67.6
Cruz 13.4
Kasich 9.1
Ryan 3.4
Martinez 1.5
Romney 0.7
Bush 0.7
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #679 on: March 30, 2016, 03:07:38 AM »

#Clintonbelow90
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #680 on: March 30, 2016, 05:33:12 AM »

Well, there clearly isn't a 100% chance that either Hillary or Bernie will be nominated.
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #681 on: March 30, 2016, 08:22:13 AM »

Susanna Martinez in a brokered convention??

Hmmmm

Martinez / Kasich would be a very nice ticket for republicans, i understand there is zero chance she gets the nomination but that would likely result in a republican win in November.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #682 on: March 30, 2016, 04:48:08 PM »

On PredictIt Trump is crashing big time in the wake of his abortion comments.  Cruz is surging.

Trump 53
Cruz 30

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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #683 on: March 30, 2016, 05:05:46 PM »

On PredictIt Trump is crashing big time in the wake of his abortion comments.  Cruz is surging.

Trump 53
Cruz 30



LOL! Trump doesn't like abortion! Guess I'll vote for Cruz now Roll Eyes

The analysis on this site keeps getting worse and worse. This drop is from far before the comments.
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cinyc
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« Reply #684 on: March 30, 2016, 05:08:16 PM »

On PredictIt Trump is crashing big time in the wake of his abortion comments.  Cruz is surging.

Trump 53
Cruz 30



LOL! Trump doesn't like abortion! Guess I'll vote for Cruz now Roll Eyes

The analysis on this site keeps getting worse and worse. This drop is from far before the comments.

Trump is slightly down on Betfair today, too.  I can't give an exact calculation because I don't know how Mr. Morden does it, but Trump is down to about 63% if you take the average of the bid-ask spread.

What else did Trump do today to cause a decline?
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Matty
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« Reply #685 on: March 30, 2016, 05:10:49 PM »

I think it has more to do with MU poll than the abortion stuff.

If trump only wins 6 0r 9/42 dels there, that's tough for him.

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cinyc
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« Reply #686 on: March 30, 2016, 05:45:26 PM »

I think it has more to do with MU poll than the abortion stuff.

If trump only wins 6 0r 9/42 dels there, that's tough for him.



I would be more interested in whether he could finally be acting ridiculous enough to implode nationally than reading anything into WI.  Thus far, there is no momentum in this race.  See Nate Cohn's recent tweet.  Demographic models have him badly disfavored in WI, along with NE and mildly disfavored in SD, but they also have him favored to win literally every other remaining state that binds delegates in a primary.

The predictions markets tend to overreact to every little campaign event, so it's probably both.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #687 on: March 30, 2016, 05:58:00 PM »

Susanna Martinez in a brokered convention??

Hmmmm

Martinez / Kasich would be a very nice ticket for republicans, i understand there is zero chance she gets the nomination but that would likely result in a republican win in November.

If the GOP-e rigs this thing with someone other than Trump or Cruz, I walk. Not playing their RINO games. Realistically, they will not be able to broker this to some squishy establishment candidate if Trump and Cruz get over this spat they are having.

As far as Martinez goes, wasn't there some sort of police scandal with her allegedly getting trashed in a hotel room a few months back?

Kasich is as useless as a Democrat to me as a Republican. I think he's to the left of that other RINO, Mitt Romney, if that's even possible. I sat out in protest to the grandfather of Obamacare in 2012 and will do the same in 2016. We've had enough GOP-e losers elected as the nominee.

And if another GOP-e loser is selected, you might as well not even have primaries. The party will be irrevocably broken.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #688 on: March 30, 2016, 10:17:17 PM »


It must be tough to be a Bernie supporter if this is the kind of stuff that gets you excited. Wink

#Hillaryonly5belowunopposedpresumptivenomineeMcCain
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #689 on: March 31, 2016, 09:00:44 AM »

Trump has been taking a beating this last few days, as Cruz surges.

Up: Cruz, Kasich
Down: Trump, Martinez

Democrats
Clinton 88.5
Sanders 10.9

Republicans
Trump 62.1
Cruz 19.0
Kasich 10.5
Ryan 3.8
Rubio 1.1
Bush 0.6
Romney 0.6
Martinez 0.2
Walker 0.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3250177#msg3250177

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1506306#msg1506306

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #690 on: March 31, 2016, 09:08:19 AM »

Let's pretend that the online betting markets existed arbitrarily far back in time.  When would have likely been the last time that we got to the end of March, and the frontrunner for one of the two parties was still below 65% to win the nomination?  I think you'd have to go back to one of the races in the 80s, though I'm not sure which one.
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Lurker
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« Reply #691 on: March 31, 2016, 10:34:23 AM »

It seems strange that they would still give a 17% chance to the candidate being neither Cruz nor Trump. I'm very unsure about each of their individual chances, but their combined odds should be way more than 80%.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #692 on: March 31, 2016, 10:38:32 AM »

I don't know.  I might even put Paul Ryan in double digits.

Something like:

Cruz 35
Trump 30
Kasich 10
Ryan 10
Romney 5
Rubio 5
Walker 2
Haley 2
Other 1
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cinyc
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« Reply #693 on: March 31, 2016, 01:45:49 PM »

Trump is even further down on Betfair today, currently somewhere around 55%.  He's currently meeting with the RNC about something - nobody knows what.  I'm not sure if that has anything to do with Trump falling at Betfair.
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Vosem
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« Reply #694 on: March 31, 2016, 02:40:09 PM »

The chance of someone being drafted at the Convention is generally overstated, because I think there's no way trump loyalist delegates+Cruz loyalist delegates aren't a majority, and neither group will ever acquiesce to a draftee. They'd rather have the whole thing go to Ballot 40. The remainder of delegates will most likely be Kasichian/Rubian/establishmentarian uncommitted types, and will be much more sympathetic to Cruz than trump. They may hold out to get something out of Cruz (a change to the party platform, a VP choice they approve of), but they're not going to back trump and they won't have the strength to advance their own candidate to the nomination. Again, unless trump is very close (and how "very" is necessary is unclear but depends in large part on the result in PA; if he wins strongly there the uncommitted delegates there may feel pressured to vote for him; if Kasich wins there outright trump will get very few uncommitted) it's very difficult to see the Convention not nominating Cruz.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #695 on: March 31, 2016, 04:28:54 PM »

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #696 on: March 31, 2016, 05:00:59 PM »

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.

He doesn't have much of a chance if there are multiple ballots, and it is increasingly likely that he will fail to meet the majority threshold on the first ballot.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #697 on: March 31, 2016, 05:08:11 PM »

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.

He doesn't have much of a chance if there are multiple ballots, and it is increasingly likely that he will fail to meet the majority threshold on the first ballot.

Because people actually care about the abortion comments, because Cruz is surging in Wisconsin, or simply because he already peaked and is coming back down to earth?
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Vosem
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« Reply #698 on: March 31, 2016, 05:21:52 PM »

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.

He doesn't have much of a chance if there are multiple ballots, and it is increasingly likely that he will fail to meet the majority threshold on the first ballot.

Because people actually care about the abortion comments, because Cruz is surging in Wisconsin, or simply because he already peaked and is coming back down to earth?

The latter two, I think.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #699 on: March 31, 2016, 05:22:43 PM »

Trump's crash in betting markets looks like a big overreaction to me.  Somebody play devil's advocate and convince me that I'm wrong.

He doesn't have much of a chance if there are multiple ballots, and it is increasingly likely that he will fail to meet the majority threshold on the first ballot.

Because people actually care about the abortion comments, because Cruz is surging in Wisconsin, or simply because he already peaked and is coming back down to earth?

Putting aside his recent comments or theories about him peaking, looking at concrete data and numbers alone in Wisconsin is worrying for his nomination prospects. Wisconsin is one of several states that Trump isn't necessarily favored in but that he needs to do somewhat well in. At the moment, it looks like he could get fewer than 10 delegates out of the state. That does not bode well going forward.
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