latest Betfair odds

[RaphaelDLG]

Can you derive the betfair super tuesday primary odds?  I'm too ignorant to be literate at reading any sportsbook that's not done American/Vegas-style.

[Mr. Morden]

Can you derive the betfair super tuesday primary odds?  I'm too ignorant to be literate at reading any sportsbook that's not done American/Vegas-style.

The amount of money in those individual state markets is so small that the numbers are pretty meaningless.  On the GOP side, the only one that has a decent amount of money in it is Texas, where it's:

Texas
Cruz 88.5
Trump 16.7

On the Dem. side, it's a bit better, and you've got:

Colorado
Sanders 65.8
Clinton 41.3

Massachusetts
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 16.7

Oklahoma
Sanders 71.4
Clinton 41.3

Unfortunately, the $ in the Minnesota market for both parties is pretty paltry, so nothing much of value there.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think Rubio will shoot back up into the 30s after a decent performance tonight

[Volrath50]

I think Rubio will shoot back up into the 30s after a decent performance tonight

I think Rubio will crash into the single digits after a terrible performance tonight.

[mencken]

I think Rubio will shoot back up into the 30s after a decent performance tonight

What is a decent performance? It would obviously have to include Minnesota, possibly Alaska. Considering 11 states are voting today, a decent performance by any objective measure should have Rubio tie Trump in number of states won, if only to make up for his deficit heading into the contest. So, I would think wins in three of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, Virginia, and Vermont (all states he is behind by double digits) would be necessary for a decent performance as well. If we were talking about Kasich then we could grant more forgiveness for the number of Southern states he has to win, but unlike Kasich, Rubio has proven that he can't compete against Trump any better in the Northeast than in the South. I would say that that doesn't matter if he is doing well in the delegate count, but given the urban-rural divide in these states, I think outright wins would be easier objectives than delegate leads.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

GOP PredictIt
Massachusetts: Trump 99, Rubio 2
Alabama: Trump 99, Rubio 3
Tennessee: Trump 98, Cruz 3, Rubio 3
Oklahoma: Trump 97, Cruz 7, Rubio 5
Georgia: Trump 96, Rubio 5
Vermont: Trump 94, Rubio 7, Kasich 5
Alaska: Trump 91, Cruz 10, Rubio 5, Kasich 2
Virginia: Trump 90, Rubio 10
Arkansas: Trump 80, Cruz 22, Rubio 6
Minnesota: Trump 65, Rubio 34, Cruz 5
Texas: Cruz 87, Trump 17

Still some free money out there on Virginia and Vermont

Vermont: Bernie 100, Hillary 1
Oklahoma: Hillary 58, Bernie 48
Colorado: Hillary 64, Bernie 35
Minnesota: Hillary 77, Bernie 29
Massachusetts: Hillary 84, Bernie 20
Arkansas: Hillary 98, Bernie 1
Texas: Hillary 100, Bernie 3
Virginia: Hillary 100, Bernie 2
Georgia: Hillary 100, Bernie 1
Tennessee: Hillary 100, Bernie 2
Alabama: Hillary 100, Bernie 1

100 indicates there are no ask offers as there is no risk in waiting one day for the guaranteed payout.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Super Tuesday update: Other than Cruz’s share price doubling, not much movement.

Up: Clinton, Cruz
Down: Trump, Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 96.2
Sanders 4.0

Republicans
Trump 77.5
Rubio 15.8
Cruz 5.3
Kasich 2.5
Ryan 0.9
Romney 0.8
Bush 0.8
Perry 0.5
Carson 0.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 64.9
Trump 26.3
Rubio 5.4
Sanders 2.9
Cruz 1.9

[jaichind]

Rubio's numbers looks too high. 

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Lots of movement among the brokered convention crowd on PredictIt, however.

Trump 75 (-5)
Rubio 13
Cruz 11 (+7)
Ryan 5
Kasich 5
Romney 3

[Mr. Morden]

Update:

Democrats
Clinton 94.3
Sanders 5.0
Biden 2.9

Republicans
Trump 75.2
Rubio 14.5
Cruz 6.0
Kasich 2.6
Romney 1.2
Ryan 1.1

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Romney speech/post-debate update: Trump shares taking a hit, drop back into the 60s.

Up: Rubio, Cruz, Kasich
Down: Clinton, Trump

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 5.8
Biden 2.6

Republicans
Trump 66.2
Rubio 18.0
Cruz 8.8
Kasich 5.5
Ryan 1.9
Romney 1.8

[mencken]

LOL at Cruz's quadrupling after the complete market overreaction.

[Mr. Morden]

Big changes on the GOP side, as Cruz’s share price more than doubles and Rubio’s share price drops by 65%.  Trump also takes a significant hit.  Cruz’s price was just 2.5 on the morning of Super Tuesday, and now it’s 21.7.

Up: Cruz, Sanders
Down: Trump, Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 92.6
Sanders 6.9
Biden 2.5

Republicans
Trump 58.8
Cruz 21.7
Rubio 6.2
Kasich 5.4
Ryan 1.8
Romney 1.7
Bush 0.7

Dem. VP nominee
Castro 33.3
Kaine 16.7
Booker 12.5
Warren 11.1
Biden 10.0

GOP VP nominee
Kasich 28.6
Cruz 21.7
Christie 16.7
T. Scott 16.1
Haley 13.2

[Eraserhead]

I'll try to enjoy this mini-Bernie surge before he gets knocked back down on Tuesday.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich surges past Rubio into 3rd place…

Up: Trump, Kasich
Down: Sanders, Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 93.5
Sanders 5.4
Biden 2.8

Republicans
Trump 61.0
Cruz 16.7
Kasich 9.1
Rubio 6.7
Ryan 1.7
Romney 1.4

Winning Individual
Clinton 65.4
Trump 20.0
Cruz 4.0
Kasich 3.7
Sanders 3.4
Rubio 2.8

[eric82oslo]

What are the latest odds after last night? I suppose that Rubio's odds have dropped further and Sanders odds have increased slightly.

[cinyc]

What are the latest odds after last night? I suppose that Rubio's odds have dropped further and Sanders odds have increased slightly.

I'm not sure what Mr. Morden uses to calculate the odds, but if you use the average of the bid and ask, it's currently:

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 8.0
Biden 2.0

Republicans
Trump 68.5
Cruz 13.2
Kasich 6.2
Rubio 4.3
Ryan 1.5
Romney 1.2


So Trump and Sanders are up and everyone else is down.  That's only true if I'm using Mr. Morden's method to compute the percentages, though.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 8.3
Biden 2.4

Republicans
Trump 69.9
Cruz 15.2
Kasich 6.9
Rubio 4.0
Ryan 1.5
Romney 1.3
Bush 0.4

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, Rubio at 4%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'll be laughing my ass off when Rubio gets crushed in the next contests and the dupes who bought him lose their money.   

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Trump above 70 again (for the first time since Romney’s speech last week):

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.5
Biden 1.7

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 14.3
Kasich 6.9
Rubio 4.0
Romney 1.1
Ryan 1.1
Bush 0.3

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

LOL, Rubio at 4%.

Marco.

Marco!

MARCO!!

I think he's gone.

[elcorazon]

Post-debate update: Trump above 70 again (for the first time since Romney’s speech last week):

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.5
Biden 1.7

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 14.3
Kasich 6.9
Rubio 4.0
Romney 1.1
Ryan 1.1
Bush 0.3

Bernie, like the tortoise, is slowly inching up the charts. He could hit double digits with a good showing next week.

[Lyin' Steve]

RNC
Trump, outright - 29.4%
Cruz, outright - 7.9%
Rubio, outright - 0.2%
Trump, convention - 39.1%
Cruz, convention - 22.2%
Rubio, convention - 0.5%
John P. Yob, convention - 0.2%
Other, convention - 0.6%

DNC
Clinton - 61%
Sanders -39%

What is this nonsense

[Mr. Morden]

RNC
Trump, outright - 29.4%
Cruz, outright - 7.9%
Rubio, outright - 0.2%
Trump, convention - 39.1%
Cruz, convention - 22.2%
Rubio, convention - 0.5%
John P. Yob, convention - 0.2%
Other, convention - 0.6%

DNC
Clinton - 61%
Sanders -39%

Yob's victory in the Virgin Islands is a sure sign that he's set to be the consensus nominee for the presidency.