latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz is back above 20, and Trump is below 60.  Will Trump drop below 50 at some point between now and the end of primary season in June?

Up: Cruz, Kasich, Ryan
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 87.7
Sanders 11.1

Republicans
Trump 59.5
Cruz 22.2
Kasich 11.9
Ryan 5.4
Rubio 0.9

[Matty]

Cruz is back above 20, and Trump is below 60.  Will Trump drop below 50 at some point between now and the end of primary season in June?

Up: Cruz, Kasich, Ryan
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 87.7
Sanders 11.1

Republicans
Trump 59.5
Cruz 22.2
Kasich 11.9
Ryan 5.4
Rubio 0.9

I would love to see these numbers if/when wolf blitzer makes the projection right at 7 (8?)- "we can project that ted cruz has won the WI primary"

[Vosem]

Cruz is back above 20, and Trump is below 60.  Will Trump drop below 50 at some point between now and the end of primary season in June?

Heck, considering how extreme some of the oscillations have been, the actual act of losing Wisconsin may be enough to do it. If he loses a state the day of the mid-Atlantic primary (Kasich should have a real shot in PA and MD), he'll probably be below 50 permanently.

[Matty]

If trump loses WI bigly and gets 0 delegates, gets less than 50% in NY, loses Pa to kasich, loses MD to kasich, loses CT to kasich......would he drop below 40?

[Lord of the Dome]

If trump loses WI bigly and gets 0 delegates, gets less than 50% in NY, loses Pa to kasich, loses MD to kasich, loses CT to kasich......would he drop below 40?

I wouldn't be surprised that would be absolutely catastrophic for the Trumpster

[Doimper]

If trump loses WI bigly and gets 0 delegates, gets less than 50% in NY, loses Pa to kasich, loses MD to kasich, loses CT to kasich......would he drop below 40?

That's the absolute worst-case scenario for him, so yeah.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If trump loses WI bigly and gets 0 delegates, gets less than 50% in NY, loses Pa to kasich, loses MD to kasich, loses CT to kasich......would he drop below 40?

That's the absolute worst-case scenario for him, so yeah.

He'd crash to single digits.  But the chances of this happening are... in the single digits :-).

[yankeesfan]

On PredictIt this morning:

Trump 45
Cruz 34

If Cruz sweeps Wisconsin, I wouldn't be surprised to see these converge at 40.

[dax00]

On PredictIt this morning:

Trump 45
Cruz 34

If Cruz sweeps Wisconsin, I wouldn't be surprised to see these converge at 40.

If Cruz sweeps Wisconsin, which won't happen due to Trump's strength in the northern and western parts of the state, I wouldn't be able to project any reasonable way for Trump to secure nomination on the first ballot

[RaphaelDLG]

Predictit has the benefit of being more liquid than Betfair but also seems to consistently overvalue Sanders and whomever is the underdog in the Republican race, or at least just makes the odds much narrower than they should be from my observations.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump just keeps on dropping…

Up: Cruz
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 88.5
Sanders 11.4
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 56.2
Cruz 23.6
Kasich 11.9
Ryan 5.3
Romney 1.0
Rubio 0.8
Bush 0.7

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3251987#msg3251987

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[cinyc]

By my math, Trump fell below 50% on Betfair this evening.  On Predictit, Trump is only 8 cents ahead of Cruz, 44 cents to 36 cents.

[RaphaelDLG]

Sanders is at a pretty insane 18c on PredictIt and 11% at the jointly derived Predictwise

[RaphaelDLG]

By my math, Trump fell below 50% on Betfair this evening.  On Predictit, Trump is only 8 cents ahead of Cruz, 44 cents to 36 cents.

https://www.betfairpredicts.com/

He's currently at 54% to Cruz's 29%.

Interestingly, they put the chances of a "contested convention" at 77%.  Now, I haven't read their contracts, which might define "contested" as one where Trump comes in at less than a majority but is close enough that he wins on first ballot anyways.

[Ronnie]

Sanders is at a pretty insane 18c on PredictIt and 11% at the jointly derived Predictwise

http://youtu.be/JSHf1svbQrA

[cinyc]

https://www.betfairpredicts.com/

He's currently at 54% to Cruz's 29%.

Interestingly, they put the chances of a "contested convention" at 77%.  Now, I haven't read their contracts, which might define "contested" as one where Trump comes in at less than a majority but is close enough that he wins on first ballot anyways.

I'm using the Betfair Exchange numbers here, and taking the inverse of the last price matched.  Trump's last price was 2.08, which translates to 48.1%.  Cruz's last price was 3.8, which translates to 26.3%.  That's different than the 53% Trump/29% Cruz at the betfairpredicts.com website you linked to.  I'm not sure why.  

I'm not sure what methodology Mr. Morden is using.  He can't just be taking the betfairpredicts.com numbers because he's using decimals and they don't.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not sure what methodology Mr. Morden is using.  He can't just be taking the betfairpredicts.com numbers because he's using decimals and they don't.

I just use the latest number for Betfair Exchange listed on Oddschecker:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

which currently has Trump at 1.95 in decimal mode, which translates to 51.3 in percentage terms.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump drops some more…

Up: Cruz
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 87.7
Sanders 11.9

Republicans
Trump 52.4
Cruz 26.0
Kasich 11.1
Ryan 5.3
Romney 1.1
Rubio 0.8

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 86.2
Sanders 12.5
Biden 2.6

Republicans
Trump 52.1
Cruz 26.6
Kasich 12.2
Ryan 5.8
Rubio 1.1
Romney 1.0
Bush 0.5

[Ronnie]

One anonymous Republican strategist who has a strong record of accurately predicting the nominee places the odds of Paul Ryan emerging as the nominee at a brokered convention at 54%:

http://www.politico.com/playbook/2016/04/ryan-rising-why-top-rs-increasingly-see-him-as-savior-the-other-gop-fight-well-funded-push-to-get-platform-to-accommodate-gay-marriage-fec-filing-trump-has-94-staffers-hillary-765-new-phones-for-west-wing-213548

[Torie]

Ryan desperately needs to clone himself.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, as it seems, the Drumpf momentum is over.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ryan desperately needs to clone himself.

So that he can save the GOP as Speaker and as Presidential nominee?

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan desperately needs to clone himself.

So that he can save the GOP as Speaker and as Presidential nominee?

And Vice President.  We could have a State of the Union address by President Ryan, flanked by Vice President Ryan and Speaker Ryan.  That would be Torie's dream. 

[Ronnie]

Can someone remind me why Torie's avatar is red?