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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Morning Consult polls every state
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Author Topic: Morning Consult polls every state  (Read 4716 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: July 14, 2016, 09:15:25 am »
« edited: July 16, 2016, 12:07:16 am by Castro »

So, it looks like Morning Consult polled every state from April through June using 57,000 RV responses. The full results can be found from the link below, which has some obvious head-scratchers like Blue Georgia and Red Maine. These are the states that shifted from their last poll.



https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 09:19:58 am »

To be fair, flip Georgia and Maine and that looks... reasonable.
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2016, 09:21:42 am »

Damn they polled all 50 states lol.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2016, 09:22:58 am »

Plus DC... though Trump getting 20% there is the least believable number on that page.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2016, 09:30:43 am »

Plus DC... though Trump getting 20% there is the least believable number on that page.

LOL. Maybe a typo. They meant 2.0%.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2016, 09:47:03 am »

To be fair, 51 polls means a couple are likely to fall outside of the MoE. There ought to be a couple of wacky results.

New Mexico being that close seems unlikely.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2016, 09:49:27 am »

Not terrible all things considered, even though I still have no clue what a Morning Consult is.

It is a long data collection process from April-June though.
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Bland Neoliberal Consensus Democrat
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2016, 10:07:21 am »

If there is a realignment, this is pretty in line with what I would expect it to look like (although GA without AZ is odd).

I'll be ready to declare a NE-SW realignment if polls support that in September.  If it does happen, I have a feeling it will be a one-off thing.  Or two-off, if Trump is running for re-election in 2020.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2016, 10:10:10 am »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!
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mds32
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2016, 10:34:21 am »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2016, 11:11:02 am »

Well, at least they tried to get every state. Some of those numbers are definitely laughable, though.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2016, 11:22:05 am »

Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Carolina? Maine going R?

I'm not using any of this except where I have no poll. And then... no.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2016, 11:23:38 am »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

It has nothing to do with the pollster, but everything to do with their methodology.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2016, 11:24:04 am »

Wow! Dominating!
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nyquil_man
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« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2016, 12:32:45 pm »

Do we have any numbers on these polls, other than the 57,000 figure? The link only offers percentages. The poster adding them to the polling database is offering figures like 200 and 300, but I can't find a source for these.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #15 on: July 14, 2016, 12:45:02 pm »

Hey MDS... can you enter all of them, or none of them? Thanks!
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Wells
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« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2016, 12:47:57 pm »

What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.
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nyquil_man
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« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2016, 01:19:14 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2016, 01:29:30 pm by nyquil_man »

What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.

I plugged the percentages into my own turnout model and got

Clinton - 42.9%
Trump - 40.1%
Other/Undecided - 17.0%

Interestingly, the model predicted that ME-2 would go to Trump and NE-2 would go to Clinton. But the  calculated sample sizes were so small that I'd hardly give them any credence.

It would be nice if Morning Consult would cough up the actual numbers

Edit: Should have proofread. I incorrectly entered a couple of percentages.
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nyquil_man
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« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2016, 01:52:28 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2016, 02:05:21 pm by nyquil_man »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

I would be fine with these polls being entered -- and grateful that some states are finally being polled -- if there were any evidence that those states were actually polled.

From Morning Consult's methodology: "Morning Consult asked more than 44,000 registered voters nationally over the past three months who they would support in a series of hypothetical general election matchups. We used a statistical technique called multilevel regression and poststratification
(MRP) to construct state-level estimates from the national survey data."

estimates from the national survey data is the operative phrase there. It's an election model from national polling. Not state polling.

Where are you getting the number of respondents for these "polls" you're entering? Are you just making them up?
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mds32
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« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2016, 01:57:17 pm »

Hey MDS... can you enter all of them, or none of them? Thanks!


I took a break I will get there not to worry!
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Wells
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2016, 02:00:18 pm »

What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.

I plugged the percentages into my own turnout model and got

Clinton - 42.9%
Trump - 40.1%
Other/Undecided - 17.0%

Interestingly, the model predicted that ME-2 would go to Trump and NE-2 would go to Clinton. But the  calculated sample sizes were so small that I'd hardly give them any credence.

It would be nice if Morning Consult would cough up the actual numbers

Edit: Should have proofread. I incorrectly entered a couple of percentages.

Cool, thanks.
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Bland Neoliberal Consensus Democrat
Beef
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« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2016, 02:13:03 pm »

Quote
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lulz.
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Anybody But Kamala for VP
semocrat08
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« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2016, 02:20:54 pm »

LoL at Maine going red and Georgia going blue.
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cinyc
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« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2016, 02:49:23 pm »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

I would be fine with these polls being entered -- and grateful that some states are finally being polled -- if there were any evidence that those states were actually polled.

From Morning Consult's methodology: "Morning Consult asked more than 44,000 registered voters nationally over the past three months who they would support in a series of hypothetical general election matchups. We used a statistical technique called multilevel regression and poststratification
(MRP) to construct state-level estimates from the national survey data."

estimates from the national survey data is the operative phrase there. It's an election model from national polling. Not state polling.

Where are you getting the number of respondents for these "polls" you're entering? Are you just making them up?

I don't think these are polls in the tradition sense, either.  Morning Consult is using regression on a large, multi-state poll response database to try to model what the results might be in each state.   The variables they chose include state age, education and income along with state-specfic economic variables, like unemployment.  Morning Consult claims this is more accurate than actual state-based polling, based on a 2012 study, but it is not polling in the traditional sense.  It might be the wave of the future, though.

Back in April, Morning Consult also separated state-specific interviews and stratified the data to create something that would approximate a state poll with special sauce, albeit one taken from January to April.   But doesn't appear that they did that here.  The April state special sauce poll results differed from the MRP estimates in some states.

I'm not sure that we should be including these "polls" in the database, but that's not up to me.
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cinyc
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« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2016, 02:52:58 pm »

Test
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