Pew: Clinton +9
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  Pew: Clinton +9
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Author Topic: Pew: Clinton +9  (Read 4540 times)
Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
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« Reply #75 on: July 12, 2016, 01:38:52 AM »

Yeah, unfortunately I don't see turnout of whites w/o a college degree *dropping* under Trump.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #76 on: July 16, 2016, 09:12:15 PM »

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/vote-preference-over-time/
http://www.businessinsider.com/libya-to-resume-oil-exports-but-analysts-skeptical-2016-7

Just read this Business Insider article and the Pew poll came to mind.

It noted Romney led whites 18-49 by 7. Trump is only leading this group in Pew (white nonhispanic) by 1.

Specifically white women 18-49 have gone from R+2 in 2012 to D+17. White men 18-49 have moved insignificantly from R+14 to R+17.

White men 50+ have swung 8 points to Trump while white women 50+ have swung 15 to Clinton.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #77 on: July 16, 2016, 09:38:49 PM »

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/vote-preference-over-time/
http://www.businessinsider.com/libya-to-resume-oil-exports-but-analysts-skeptical-2016-7

Just read this Business Insider article and the Pew poll came to mind.

It noted Romney led whites 18-49 by 7. Trump is only leading this group in Pew (white nonhispanic) by 1.

Specifically white women 18-49 have gone from R+2 in 2012 to D+17. White men 18-49 have moved insignificantly from R+14 to R+17.

White men 50+ have swung 8 points to Trump while white women 50+ have swung 15 to Clinton.
All signs point to a large Clinton win, but the headline numbers. Weird.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #78 on: July 16, 2016, 10:04:33 PM »

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The only state that affects is Louisiana.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #79 on: July 16, 2016, 11:29:24 PM »

Pew poll for June 2004 indicates a 48-46 advantage for Bush, once again nailing the margin of victory. Obviously, past success is no gurantee of future success, but this is a solid trend over the past three cycles.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #80 on: July 17, 2016, 05:03:11 PM »

Even shifts might be rough approximations for elections differing in the national margin by 4% or less. Obama 2008 is the max-out for Democratic performance in a binary election in many states. so should Hillary Clinton win in 2012 by something like a 10% in a binary election, then she wins about everything that Obama won in 2008 (Indiana is a possible exception because 2008 was the Perfect Storm to wreck Republican chances of winning the state that year. Replicating that would require a credit crunch, exorbitant petroleum prices, and an economic meltdown with a Republican incumbent. With a Democratic incumbent? The Democrat would lose Indiana about 65-35 and the US as a whole about 55-45).

A number as Pew has suggests the possibility of a Trump collapse. If he is getting 68-20 with the votes of under-educated white people, practically breaking even with white people, and losing badly with Asians, Hispanics, an blacks, then he stands to lose about like Stevenson did to Eisenhower... twice. Under-educated white people are not going to convince any other people  to go their way.  It is more likely that such people will meet someone who disabuses them of their hollow reasons for voting for Donald Trump.

I look at the overlay between the electoral maps of Eisenhower and Obama and I see Obama winning practically nothing (North Carolina, once, and barely in 2008) that Eisenhower didn't win. Ike won the ranching states that Obama did not win...  

Could it be that Barack Obama and Dwight Eisenhower have similar temperaments (cautious, trusting legal precedent over fickle opinion, scandal-avoiding)? Maybe that is reflected in the states. Where educational standards were highest in the 1950s, Eisenhower did well.  Those are roughly the same states today. At least one historical pattern suggests that Barack Obama acts like a 60-something member of the Lost Generation, like Harry Truman or Dwight Eisenhower.      

What happens if the pattern of "solid education, vote against Trump" holds?  I can see Hillary Clinton winning some states that Eisenhower won but Obama didn't.
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