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  Talk Elections
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  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Morning Consult polls every state (search mode)
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Author Topic: Morning Consult polls every state  (Read 4471 times)
nyquil_man
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Posts: 196


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -2.61

« on: July 14, 2016, 12:32:45 pm »

Do we have any numbers on these polls, other than the 57,000 figure? The link only offers percentages. The poster adding them to the polling database is offering figures like 200 and 300, but I can't find a source for these.
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nyquil_man
Rookie
**
Posts: 196


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -2.61

« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 01:19:14 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2016, 01:29:30 pm by nyquil_man »

What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.

I plugged the percentages into my own turnout model and got

Clinton - 42.9%
Trump - 40.1%
Other/Undecided - 17.0%

Interestingly, the model predicted that ME-2 would go to Trump and NE-2 would go to Clinton. But the  calculated sample sizes were so small that I'd hardly give them any credence.

It would be nice if Morning Consult would cough up the actual numbers

Edit: Should have proofread. I incorrectly entered a couple of percentages.
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nyquil_man
Rookie
**
Posts: 196


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -2.61

« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2016, 01:52:28 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2016, 02:05:21 pm by nyquil_man »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

I would be fine with these polls being entered -- and grateful that some states are finally being polled -- if there were any evidence that those states were actually polled.

From Morning Consult's methodology: "Morning Consult asked more than 44,000 registered voters nationally over the past three months who they would support in a series of hypothetical general election matchups. We used a statistical technique called multilevel regression and poststratification
(MRP) to construct state-level estimates from the national survey data."

estimates from the national survey data is the operative phrase there. It's an election model from national polling. Not state polling.

Where are you getting the number of respondents for these "polls" you're entering? Are you just making them up?
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