LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Just seem the first NC Senate Ad of the year for a candidate, Thillis.

Sounded horrible and was scrunched up, not wide screen.

Also, if I were just watching the ad, I'd have no idea he was in the Assembly; let alone its Speaker

[Miles]

MCINTYRE RETIRING!!!

[Flake]

MCINTYRE RETIRING!!!

Came here to post that

[Miles]

Well, McIntyre's retirement may have adverse implications for Rouzer; there are several R state legislators who might now look at this race that otherwise wouldn't.

[Zioneer]

Well, McIntyre's retirement may have adverse implications for Rouzer; there are several R state legislators who might now look at this race that otherwise wouldn't.

Shades of Matheson and Mia Love; legislators over here are doing the same think.

In any case, dang, that's R+1 for sure.

[Miles]

Yeah, lots of parallels between them. There were several important House votes where McIntyre and Matheson were the only Democrats to side with Republicans. I figured after Matheson left, McIntyre wouldn't want to be the last one remaining.

[Miles]

Some names who might consider NC-07 now:

Republicans:

New Hanover Commissioner Woody White was gearing up for a run even before today.
Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick County)- His district is in the core of this CD.
Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover County)- PPP showed him to be in surprisingly bad shape and he may have a tough Senate race. This might be a good out for him.

Ilario Pantano has a job with the McCrory administration, so he might not be as inclined to run here for a third time.

Rouzer candidacy should give make other Republicans from Johnston County think twice, though.

Democrats:

Rep. Ken Waddell (Columbus County)
Sen. Michael Walters (Robeson County)
Rep. Susi Hamilton (New Hanover County)
Rep. William Brisson (Bladen County)- probably too old and I think he likes being a Blue Dog in the Assembly Dem leadership.

Bob Etheridge is from Sampson County and represented Johnston County his entire Congressional tenure...

Maybe Jason Thigpen (the candidate running for CD3 who changed from R to D) will consider switching races? He's from New Hanover County. Having a veteran run would be good in this military-heavy district.

Hat tip DKE. Thigpen apparantly helped McIntyre's campaign in 2012.

[Miles]

Woody White is apparently going forward with his challenge to Rouzer.

His timetable at the end of December was 10-15 days, so this is about on schedule anyway.

[Miles]

Since White is in, it might be worth dusting off this old map from 2012. The scenario will be the same; Rouzer will be facing a Republican from Wilmington:



I wasn't expecting Rouzer to win. Johnston County, his base, only makes up about 23% of the district. What worked in his favor, though, was that rural areas still have relatively few registered Republicans, giving Pantano less voters to draw from.

[Miles]

After just rolling out his NC-07 campaign, Woody White has a few noticeable endorsements:

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Also, Brunswick County Commissioner Frank Williams may also be eyeing this race. Almost every recent post on his Twitter feed has to do with NC-07 becoming open.

[smoltchanov]

Some names who might consider NC-07 now:

Republicans:

New Hanover Commissioner Woody White was gearing up for a run even before today.
Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick County)- His district is in the core of this CD.
Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover County)- PPP showed him to be in surprisingly bad shape and he may have a tough Senate race. This might be a good out for him.

Ilario Pantano has a job with the McCrory administration, so he might not be as inclined to run here for a third time.

Rouzer candidacy should give make other Republicans from Johnston County think twice, though.

Democrats:

Rep. Ken Waddell (Columbus County)
Sen. Michael Walters (Robeson County)
Rep. Susi Hamilton (New Hanover County)
Rep. William Brisson (Bladen County)- probably too old and I think he likes being a Blue Dog in the Assembly Dem leadership.

Bob Etheridge is from Sampson County and represented Johnston County his entire Congressional tenure...

Maybe Jason Thigpen (the candidate running for CD3 who changed from R to D) will consider switching races? He's from New Hanover County. Having a veteran run would be good in this military-heavy district.

Hat tip DKE. Thigpen apparantly helped McIntyre's campaign in 2012.

Miles, all Democrats you mention here (exception - Brisson) are rather substantially to the left of McIntyre. And that probably means that they have little or no chances.

[Miles]

Miles, all Democrats you mention here (exception - Brisson) are rather substantially to the left of McIntyre. And that probably means that they have little or no chances.

Thigpen is basically a libertarian with some liberal views. Both districts are about equally D down ballot, but another thing is that CD7 would be more expensive to run in.

[windjammer]

So no democrats will vote to repeal health care after 2014?

[Miles]

So no democrats will vote to repeal health care after 2014?

Yep; Matheson and McIntyre were the only Ds who routinely joined the Rs on that.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-6: Dietzel announces his endorsement by former Rep. Hanson Moore.

[Miles]

It looks like that was mentioned in a snippet of an article on CD6 from LaPolitics. He'll be at the kickoff with Cain next week and Dietzel raised 200K in 2013. I would have the full article, but its one of those just for subscribers; I love doing this, but I'm too cheap subscribe for the $83!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am going to be looking seriously at the other candidates who will be getting in. I voted for Rouzer last time, but was strongly considering defecting to McIntyre this time. 

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Is Tony Perkins still exploring a run?  I don't know how often the FRC endorses candidates, but maybe his Alex Mooney endorsement (albeit in another state) is a sign that he wants to gain prominence...?

[Miles]

Is Tony Perkins still exploring a run?  I don't know how often the FRC endorses candidates, but maybe his Alex Mooney endorsement (albeit in another state) is a sign that he wants to gain prominence...?

It was rumored he was looking at CD6 for most of 2013. Recently, though, national socons have encouraged him to go all-in and run for Senate instead.

Some Republicans say that having him in the race would help because it would fracture the anti-Cassidy vote. Possibly, but Perkins and Cassidy are both from the Baton Rouge area.

[Miles]

Whoah, I just happened to come across this. Last cycle, Thigpen was featured in Veterans for McIntyre:

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[Miles]

Dietzel gets a second ex-Congressman's endorsemnet with Bob Livingston.

[Miles]

Some updates from the NC Senate R side:

Rev. Harris gets a boost (with socons, at least) with an endorsement from Concerned Women of America.

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As the article below points out, Harris' candidacy doesn't fit neatly in the establishment vs. tea party dynamic, so locking in a niche with socons will be paramount for him.

FWIW, as with Tony Perkin's Family Research Council, the SPLC likewise designates CWA as an anti-gay hate group.


On the other side of this primary, Brannon is starting to turn the heat up on Tillis:

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[Miles]

Whoah, two State Senators who I listed as potential candidates for NC-07 announced Friday they won't run for their current seats. Thom Goolsby (R) and Michael Walters (D) won't be running for reelection.

Goolsby cited family, so it doesn't sound like he'll run in CD7. Walters just doesn't strike me as having the fire in the belly.

Goolsby leaves behind a slighty R-leaning New Hanover county seat. He endorsed his 2010 R primary rival Michael Lee. On the D side, ex-State Sen. Julia Boseman is running against county school board member Elizabeth Redenbaugh. Democrats need to win seats like this if they want to nibble away at the Republicans supermajority. Still, I'd say this is Tilt R.

Walters' seat is heavily Democratic, consisting of Robeson and Columbus counties.

[Miles]

Where Landrieu and Cassidy's fundraising is coming from. Much of Mary's comes from law firms and the oil/gas industry with Cassidy, a doctor, doing well with the health industry.

Landrieu has outraised Cassidy almost 3:1 with the oil/gas industry; I wonder how much it would increase should she chair the energy committee.

[Miles]

Add another Republican candidate to NC Sen. Its actually a semi-decent candidate in ex-Shelby mayor Ted Alexander, who served from 2003 to 2011.

Shelby is a small city in Cleveland County (ironically enough, Hagan's home county), in exurban Charlotte. Alexander is currently the chair of the Cleveland County GOP, but will step aside for this.

Also, I try to keep up with this on the original post of this thread, but here's a Senate/Congressional/Assembly candidate tracker from the NC Free Enterprise Institute.

According to their count, Democrats so far don't have candidates running CDs 5,8, 9, 10 (though I thought Asheville mayor Terry Bellamy is running) and 11. No Republican is running against Price.