LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[RogueBeaver]

So that's probably one runoff slot. To get the other requires some sort of geographic or ideological base. I'd have thought Dietzel would go for the ficon slot with socons as a bonus, dunno about geography.

[Miles]

David Rouzer has a new campaign manager, Tyler Foote. Foote has most recently managed Rep. Tim Murphy's campaign (Safe R seat) seat and Trey Grayson's in 2010.

Ugh. We don't need this:

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Barfield has been in the race for a while. It could be worse though; black groups ran a liberal write-in challenger against Kissell last cycle in the general election. It wouldn't have made the difference, as it could here, but it didn't help.

[JacobNC]

The issues section of Barfield's website has literally dozens of grammatical errors.  Lol.

[publicunofficial]

Baucus' resignation might help in Louisiana.


Baucus' chairmanship of the Senate Finance Committee will fall to Ron Wyden, who is currently chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. When Wyden moves, Landrieu will be the new chair of Energy.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-6: Dietzel is a Paulist on FP, and got endorsed by the same PAC which was so prominent in Massie's election last year.

[Dancing with Myself]

Well, Coble just started representing Surry this year and at least has a staffer there.

Glad to hear about Hagan!

Coble didn't come around until when he started back and it's a shame he's going.  If we could have had the Coble of 10 or 20 years back I would be thrilled. Just wrong place wrong time deal.

I hope whoever runs will come my way and have a big candidates debate so I could at least know where they stand.

I just hope for no tea partier. I started leaning Independent once they gained traction.

[illegaloperation]

Baucus' resignation might help in Louisiana.


Baucus' chairmanship of the Senate Finance Committee will fall to Ron Wyden, who is currently chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. When Wyden moves, Landrieu will be the new chair of Energy.

Being the chairwoman Energy and Natural Resources Committee is huge for Landrieu.

That will definitely be a top talking point for her.

[RogueBeaver]

Except in that SMOR poll, voters said electing someone new was more important, 56-37. Were I Cassidy I'd also use Landrieu's "indispensable" quote.

[RogueBeaver]

NJ on LA-Sen, noting Landrieu has to nearly match her '08 performance. Which Pinsonat already said isn't happening.

[Miles]

Which Pinsonat already said isn't happening.

He said it was contingent on Obamacare and her share of the white vote.

Pinsonat's poll only had her at 24% but PPP had 30% and Harper 31%. It needs to be around 33-37%.

[Miles]

Which Pinsonat already said isn't happening.

He said it was contingent on Obamacare and her share of the white vote.

Pinsonat's poll only had her at 24% but PPP had 30% and Harper 31%. It needs to be around 33-37%.

Actually, with an electorate in between 2010 and 2012 in terms of its racial composition, she can probably get away with 30-33% of the white vote.

The article suggests that 2010 will be a template for 2014. I don't think thats right, as the DNC ignored poor ol' Melancon in 2010.

[RogueBeaver]

Which Pinsonat already said isn't happening.

He said it was contingent on Obamacare and her share of the white vote.

Pinsonat's poll only had her at 24% but PPP had 30% and Harper 31%. It needs to be around 33-37%.

Actually, with an electorate in between 2010 and 2012 in terms of its racial composition, she can probably get away with 30-33% of the white vote.

Which changes in the runoff, I'm guessing.

[Miles]

Which changes in the runoff, I'm guessing.

Maybe, but possibly in a good way. Believe it or not, in 2002, the runoff electorate was two points less white than the primary electorate. Between black voters moving back into the state and her GOTV operation, a runoff may not be as much of a travail as it may seem.

For a more recent example, the 2010 LG race was the only other somewhat competitive (two-party) race I can think of. Looking over the stats, the makeup of the primary and runoff electorates was almost identical.

[Miles]

I happened to read this article in the paper today.

The author, James Varney, makes its pretty clear that he's not a fan of Mary. The crux of his criticism is that he finds her Obamcare antics, err, questionable:

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He goes on to say, though,that Republicans should underestimate her at their own risk.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy should keep his eyes peeled for localized Bouncing Betties, since an agricultural one (sugarcane) took out Terrell 11 years ago. National v. local.

[Miles]

Cassidy should keep his eyes peeled for localized Bouncing Betties, since an agricultural one (sugarcane) took out Terrell 11 years ago. National v. local.

There was their little competition over the flood insurance rate hike delays. From the publicity she's getting from it, I'd say Landrieu is winning that battle though.

[RogueBeaver]

RRH reporting St. Rep. Paul Hollis has jumped into LA-Sen. Miles: I'm guessing he's a TP guy?

[Miles]

Wow, no kidding. I didn't think he'd actually go for it.

Yeah, he'll certainly be running to Cassidy's right; he could likely emerge as the socon candidate.

Its probably a wash in terms of its impact. While this makes it harder for Cassidy to get primary votes around New Orleans, as RRH says, he'll probably pull more support from Maness.

[RogueBeaver]

Either way Landrieu's probably at the 42-44% range for the jungle right now, I'd guess.

[Miles]

Its closer to 45%-ish IMO. She's gonna surely be able to do just 1-3% better than Obama. Hollis isn't going to be pulling New Orleans area votes from Landrieu.

[Miles]

Ahead of his Gov run Vittersays he's hoping Mary is defeated. Not surprising given their antagonistic relationship, but not very classy, IMO.

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I'm assuming he's talking about the nuclear option; actually, if the Cassidy campaign just came out and said something like, they could have had a point. Instead, they had the whole MussoLandrieu debacle which Cassidy never condemned. Very sloppy.

[Miles]

Baucus' resignation might help in Louisiana.


Baucus' chairmanship of the Senate Finance Committee will fall to Ron Wyden, who is currently chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. When Wyden moves, Landrieu will be the new chair of Energy.

The Energy chairmanship would be big:

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[Morning in Atlas]

Ahead of his Gov run Vittersays he's hoping Mary is defeated. Not surprising given their antagonistic relationship, but not very classy, IMO.

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I'm assuming he's talking about the nuclear option; actually, if the Cassidy campaign just came out and said something like, they could have had a point. Instead, they had the whole MussoLandrieu debacle which Cassidy never condemned. Very sloppy.

Wow. What a f***ing asshole. Here's hoping her brother knocks Diaperman out of politics.

[RogueBeaver]

LA Times article on Landrieu.

[Miles]

FWIW, the R primary to replace Tillis in NC HD98 might be mildly interesting.

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The district is in northern Mecklenburg County. Democrats have a candidate but the district was 56/43 Romney and is inelastic.