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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections  (Read 22964 times)
ag
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« Reply #175 on: September 17, 2007, 09:23:01 PM »

St. Hyacinthe gap is closing - it's just over 6% now (43.0% to 36.8%) and most polls are still to report.  So, this is where the night will be long.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #176 on: September 17, 2007, 09:29:47 PM »

The seeming celebration at Liberal HQ and chants of "Dion! Dion!" are pathetic, IMHO.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #177 on: September 17, 2007, 09:35:28 PM »

Did Dion say September 11 or was that a translation error?
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #178 on: September 17, 2007, 09:45:10 PM »

No idea. I've just been getting info directly from Elections Canada (http://enr.elections.ca/enr_v2/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx).
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #179 on: September 17, 2007, 09:59:20 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2007, 10:01:27 PM by Verily »

Bloc will hold Saint-Hyacinthe, albeit narrowly. Only 22 polls left and a 5% lead; that should be enough.

The NDP victory in Outremont is much bigger than I expected, over 20 points currently, and will probably have major ramifications in the landscape of Quebec politics (not to mention internal Liberal Party problems).
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #180 on: September 17, 2007, 10:11:49 PM »

One word: WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoo


Sorry for not posting. I invited fellow poster cp to watch the results Smiley
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #181 on: September 17, 2007, 10:37:29 PM »

Outremont
166/168 reporting

Thomas Mulcair (NDP): 11,156 (48.4%)
Jocelyn Coulon (LIB): 6,554 (28.4%)
Jean-Paul Gilson (BQ): 2,490 (10.8%)
Gilles Duguay (CON): 1,907 (8.3%)
Francois Pilon (GRN): 504 (2.2%)
Others below 1%
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #182 on: September 17, 2007, 10:55:37 PM »

Well, as for the other by-elections; they won't have to be called until January 2nd at the earliest, so we wont be hearing about them for a while.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #183 on: September 17, 2007, 10:56:31 PM »

Talk is that Harper may try for an election this fall with the Liberals in turmoil and the Bloc clearly suffering as well. There may not be more by-elections.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #184 on: September 17, 2007, 11:23:32 PM »

Jeez, I'll be in campaign mode for the rest of the year if that happens.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #185 on: September 18, 2007, 01:53:11 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2007, 03:49:46 AM by Dic Penderyn »

Outremont

NDP 47.5%
Lib 29.0%
BQ 10.9%
Con  8.6%
Green 2.2%
Oths.  1.8%

NDP maj. 18.5%

NDP gain from Liberal

Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean

Con  59.4%
BQ    27.0%
Lib     9.6%
NDP   2.3%
Green 1.7%

Con maj. 32.4%

Conservative gain from Bloc Quebecois

Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot

BQ  42.1%
Con 37.5%
NDP  7.9%
Lib    7.4%
Green 3.7%
Oths.  1.6%

BQ maj. 4.6%

Bloc Quebecois hold
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #186 on: September 18, 2007, 03:32:24 AM »

Glory now, Dippers all!
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #187 on: September 18, 2007, 04:58:38 AM »

Outremont: NDP 48% (+30%) Lib 29% (-6%) BQ 11% (-18%) Con 9% (-4%) Green 2% (-3%) Others 2% (+2%). NDP GAIN from Lib on a swing of 18% from Lib to NDP

Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: Con 59% (+22%) BQ 27% (-18%) Lib 10% (+2%) NDP 2% (-4%) Green 2% (-2%) Con GAIN from Bloc on a swing of 20% from Bloc to Con

Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot: BQ 42% (-14%) Con 38% (+13%) NDP 8% (+3%) Lib 7% (-3%)  Green 4% (n/c) Others 2% (+2%) Bloc HOLD on a swing of 13.5% from Bloc to Con

This reminds me rather a lot of the Blaenau Gwent / Bromley by-election results. One incredible result and one that staggered belief! Overall, what I think we can tell is that the Bloc are losing support to the Conservatives and given that the Conservatives need 30 gains for an overall majority and that on these swings 31 Bloc seats would go down, I think that the Conservative PM must fancy his chances at an election (but do you really think Canada would appreciate another winter election?)
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #188 on: September 18, 2007, 06:08:22 AM »

Talk is that Harper may try for an election this fall with the Liberals in turmoil and the Bloc clearly suffering as well. There may not be more by-elections.

Considering the Conservatives are operating as a minority government, why would the Liberals and the Bloc vote for the government to end if they're suffering? Harper would still need a majority of votes to support dissolution, right?
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Hash
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« Reply #189 on: September 18, 2007, 07:11:02 AM »

Damn, the Greens did very badly. Damn Quebec!
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #190 on: September 18, 2007, 08:48:27 AM »

Talk is that Harper may try for an election this fall with the Liberals in turmoil and the Bloc clearly suffering as well. There may not be more by-elections.

Considering the Conservatives are operating as a minority government, why would the Liberals and the Bloc vote for the government to end if they're suffering? Harper would still need a majority of votes to support dissolution, right?

Ah, I was thinking under old terms. It used to be that the PM could dissolve Parliament whenever he wanted, but the Harper government passed a law last year fixing election dates, which I think prevents the PM from arbitrarily dissolving Parliament (though theoretically the Conservatives and NDP could vote no confidence and get it over with).
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #191 on: September 18, 2007, 01:05:59 PM »

The NDP might not mind an election if we get a bump in the polls from this by-election, but that might go down if we force an election.
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Verily
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« Reply #192 on: September 18, 2007, 02:01:46 PM »

The NDP might not mind an election if we get a bump in the polls from this by-election, but that might go down if we force an election.

The NDP would have great spin, though... "The Liberals voted to prop up the Harper government. Only the NDP was willing to work to tear down conservativism in this country!"
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Hash
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« Reply #193 on: September 18, 2007, 05:17:33 PM »

Average vote of all 3 constituencies:

Conservative 31,475; 36.92% (+12.18%)
Bloc Quebecois 23,983; 28.13% (-16.15%)
New Democratic Party 14,587; 17.11% (+7.93%)
Liberal 12,118; 14.21% (-2.95%)
Green 2,197; 2.58% (-1.74%)
Other Parties (Neorhino.ca, CAP, Ind) 895; 1.05% (+0.72%)
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #194 on: September 18, 2007, 06:16:43 PM »

Average vote of all 3 constituencies:

Conservative 31,475; 36.92% (+12.18%)
Bloc Quebecois 23,983; 28.13% (-16.15%)
New Democratic Party 14,587; 17.11% (+7.93%)
Liberal 12,118; 14.21% (-2.95%)
Green 2,197; 2.58% (-1.74%)
Other Parties (Neorhino.ca, CAP, Ind) 895; 1.05% (+0.72%)

As Peter Snow would say "This is just a bit of fun". Forecast House of Commons based on those three by-elections.

Con 191 (+61)
Lib 62 (-40)
NDP 29 (n/c)
Bloc 25 (-26)
Ind 1 (n/c)
Con majority of 74
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Hash
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« Reply #195 on: September 18, 2007, 06:28:02 PM »

That's a bit extended, basing results in 308 constituencies based on 3 seats is ... you know Tongue
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #196 on: September 19, 2007, 04:55:18 AM »

That's a bit extended, basing results in 308 constituencies based on 3 seats is ... you know Tongue

True, but it's what the BBC did after every by-election between 1992 and 1996 (most famously in Dudley West where the swing to Lab was so big, no Conservative MP's would have been elected so they had to add a Conservative MP for the computer model to work!)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #197 on: September 19, 2007, 01:00:23 PM »

That's a bit extended, basing results in 308 constituencies based on 3 seats is ... you know Tongue

True, but it's what the BBC did after every by-election between 1992 and 1996 (most famously in Dudley West where the swing to Lab was so big, no Conservative MP's would have been elected so they had to add a Conservative MP for the computer model to work!)
Cheesy

I think they did it before 92 as well... although maybe only where there was a major swing. I recall reading that for the 86 Fulham by-election, it showed Labour one seat short of a majority.

Re Harry - what's the distribution just for Quebec?
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #198 on: September 19, 2007, 01:17:16 PM »

Average vote of all 3 constituencies:

Conservative 31,475; 36.92% (+12.18%)
Bloc Quebecois 23,983; 28.13% (-16.15%)
New Democratic Party 14,587; 17.11% (+7.93%)
Liberal 12,118; 14.21% (-2.95%)
Green 2,197; 2.58% (-1.74%)
Other Parties (Neorhino.ca, CAP, Ind) 895; 1.05% (+0.72%)

Quebec only Forecast:

Con GAIN from Bloc: Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean, Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Saint-Maurice--Champlain, Québec, Chicoutimi--Le Fjord, Trois-Rivières, Richmond--Arthabaska, Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia, Montmorency--Charlevoix--Haute-Côte-Nord, Berthier--Maskinongé, Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier, Brome--Missisquoi, Shefford, Compton--Stanstead, Brossard--La Prairie, Beauharnois--Salaberry, Gatineau, Alfred-Pellan, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques, Saint-Lambert, Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou, Laval, Ahuntsic,
Joliette, Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup, Drummond

Con +30
Lib n/c
Bloc -29
NDP n/c
Ind -1
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #199 on: September 19, 2007, 04:23:44 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2007, 08:40:37 PM by Verily »

And, in the post-by-election rundown, Decima says... Quebec goes crazy!

http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/070919BE.pdf

Con: 32 (+1)
Lib: 29 (-2)
NDP: 17 (+2)
Green: 14 (!!!) (+2)
BQ: 5 (!!!!!) (-3)

Quebec
Con: 26
BQ: 22 (!!!!!)
Lib: 16
NDP: 16 (!!!!!)
Green: 15 (!!!!!)

The other interesting (but not all that surprising, given the situations in NL and NS) part:

Atlantic Canada
Lib: 50
Con: 18
NDP: 17
Green: 12

Of course, the margin of error is large.

For completeness:

Ontario
Lib: 36
Con: 34
NDP: 16
Green: 12

BC
Lib: 30
Con: 29
NDP: 21
Green: 19

No breakdown for the Prairies, but presumably the Conservatives are somewhere between 60 and 70% in Alberta and around 40% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan with the NDP and Liberals about tied and the Greens more or less on their national average.
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