Official Canada elections result thread
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October 27, 2021, 07:45:32 PM

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The Duke
JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #75 on: January 24, 2006, 03:44:37 AM »

I have a hard time getting worked up over the Harper win.  I know I'm supposed to be worked up, but I'm just not.  I never had the great dislike for Martin that I had at times for Chretien.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #76 on: January 24, 2006, 04:10:31 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2006, 06:10:08 AM by Jean Chrétien »

See, for me it's the other way round. I never had any of the sympathy for Martin that I always had for Chrétien.

Seat changes and electionprediction correctness. No time to do Onto, maybe someone can add that.

Nfld
Lib 4 (-1)
Con 3 (+1)
Avalon only change; Avalon only ep error

Nova
Lib 6
Con 3
Dip 2
No change; no error; Dippers outpolled Tories across the province.

PEI
Lib all 4
No change; no error

NB
Lib 6 (-1)
Con 3 (+1)
Dip 1 (0)
Net result as predicted; but 2 riding errors. electionprediction had Saint John switching, instead Tobique-Mactaquac did.

Québec
BQ 51 (-3)
Lib 13 (-8)
Con 10 (+10)
i 1 (+1)
Cons outpolled Grits across the province. Seat changes -
Liberals to Bloc - Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber*, Papineau, Brôme-Missiquoui, Brossard-La Prairie*, Gatineau
Liberals to Tories - Pontiac, Beauce
Bloc to i - Portneuf
Bloc to Tories - Beauport*, Charlesbourg*, Louis Hébert*, Louis St Laurent, Lévis-Bellechasse*, Lotbinière*, Mégantic-L'Erable*, Jonquière-Alma*
* represent electionprediction errors. All errors were on the side of caution, ie prediction was for no change.

Manitoba
Con 8 (+1)
Lib 3 (0)
NDP 3 (-1)
Churchill went from Dip to Lib, Winnipeg S from Lib to Con. electionprediction predicted no changes.

Saskatchewan
Con 12 (-1)
Lib 2 (+1)
Dip 0 (0)
We still outpolled the Liberals, although I think our vote share went down. electionprediction failed to spot Liberals gaining Churchill River, and falsely predicted Regina-Qu'Appelle to go Dipper.

Alberta
Con 28 (+2)
Lib 0 (-2) Yeah I know, -1, and i -1. Anyways, electionprediction was right. Sad

Territories
Lib 2 (-1)
Dippers 1 (+1)
Con 0
Dippers took Western Arctic. No changes were predicted.

BC
I'll do this in the following format-
incumbent party - prediction - winner
Con Con Con 17: Delta - Richmond E, Fleetwood - Port Kells, Port Moody etc, S Surrey etc, Abbotsford, Chilliwack - Fraser Canyon, Langley, Pitt Meadows etc, Kamloop etc, Kelowna, Kootenay - Colville, Okanagan - Coquille, Okanagan - Shuswap, Prince George - Peace River, Cariboo - Prince George, Nanaimo - Alberni, Saanich - Gulf Islands
Con Con Lib 1: W Vancouver - Sunshine Coast
Con Dip Dip 3: New Westminster - Coquitlam, S Interior, Island N
Con Dip Lib 1: Newton - North Delta
Dip Dip Dip 4: Vancouver E, Burnaby - Douglas, Skeena, Nanaimo - Cowichan
Dip Lib Dip 1: Burnaby - New Westminster
i Dip Dip 1: Surrey N
Lib Con Lib 1: N Vancouver
Lib Dip Dip 1: Victoria
Lib Dip Lib 1: Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca
Lib Lib Lib 5: Vancouver C, Kingsway, Quadra, Vancouver S, Richmond
So that the result is
Con 17 (-5)
Dip 10 (+5)
Lib 9 (+1)
i 0 (-1)
the prediction had been
Con 19 (-3)
Dip 11 (+6)
Lib 6 (-2)
i 0 (-1)
and the number of prediction errors is 4.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #77 on: January 24, 2006, 04:37:44 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2006, 05:25:36 AM by Al the Sleepy Bear »

See, for me it's the other way round. I never had any of the sympathy for Martin that I always had for Chrétien.

Same here; despite his blatently crooked ways I always liked (and will always like) Johnny Christian.

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Ah, so they won Avalon then? Interesting...

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I must admit liking the results in Central Nova; we'll take down that ****er MacKay next election methinks... and it seems that the voters of Halifax decided that they'd rather not send Alexa back to her knitting...

I've just looked at Stoffer's numbers. Wow. Just wow...

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Neither should have ever voted Grit

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This is a rare occasion that I'm genuinely delighted to see Tories do well... the BQ were held to just 42% across the province! Smiley

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None are at all suprising; Papineau was closer than I thought it'd be though. I think you forgot Gatineau, btw

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Have you seen the Tory % in Beauce? Jesus...

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Jonquiere going is a big blow for the Bloc. Did the Tories win the most seats in Quebec City? Looking at the above they mightave done...

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Damn fraud on reservations Tongue And damn the stupid local NDP as well actually...
Alcock lost?

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Dippers took 24% across the province... up on 2004... you know I think it's time for something to be done about that bloody gerrymander (and it's so obviously one...).
If history repeats itself the NDP will win two seats in Sask next election Wink [last time they were locked out of federal representation from Sask it was in the '60's... for two elections in a row...].
I wishful-thinking predicted Regina-Qu'Appelle as well...

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Landslide Anne just got hit by a landslide Tongue

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So the one result I were hoping for more than any others happend? YES!!!!!!! Cheesy
Nunavut shockingly close as well...

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Seriously?

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Newton-N.Delta seems to have gone Liberal. Other than that... yay! Especially about North Island! Cheesy

You haven't done Ontario yet Tongue
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #78 on: January 24, 2006, 04:49:33 AM »

Some interesting Toronto results... Ignatieff (who I'll admit to liking *prepares to be hit by rocks*) won, that crooked piece of **** Bulte lost in Parkdale-High Park (yay!)... Chow *finally* beat Tammany (er... Tony...) Ianno, Churley failed to win Beaches-East York (seems as though gentrification hath doomed the Dippers out there). Wappel won easily. Bugger.

*looks at Earl's map*

NDP sweep Hamilton? Smiley Finally win London Fanshawe? Hey... is that *blue* I see for Glengarry-Prescott-Russell? Huh
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #79 on: January 24, 2006, 06:07:44 AM »

NDP sweep Hamilton? Smiley Finally win London Fanshawe? Hey... is that *blue* I see for Glengarry-Prescott-Russell? Huh
Yes.
Liberals won a bare majority of seats, 54 to Tories' 40 to Dippers' 12.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #80 on: January 24, 2006, 06:14:25 AM »


Good Lord... you know part of that riding had had a Liberal M.P from the 19th century onward... I guess it completes the death of the Liberals in rural Eastern Ontario then. Amazing to think that seats like Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke and Stormont-Something-South Something were once Liberal strongholds... two of them even refused to budge in 1984...

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Next provincial election should be fun then Cool
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #81 on: January 24, 2006, 06:16:29 AM »


Good Lord... you know part of that riding had had a Liberal M.P from the 19th century onward... I guess it completes the death of the Liberals in rural Eastern Ontario then.
No, there's still a Last Grit Standing in ...what's it called? Kingston & The Islands?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #82 on: January 24, 2006, 06:25:17 AM »

No, there's still a Last Grit Standing in ...what's it called? Kingston & The Islands?

Which doesn't count as it's a) largely urban b) a university town and c) traditionally Tory (albeit in a High Red Tory sort of way).

Odd... the NDP crossed the deposit (ie; 15%) level in a couple of rural Eastern ridings (the traditionally Tory ones rather than the old Red Belt ones).

===

Interestingly the NDP didn't do so badly in the "Saskatoon" ridings; nearly cracked 40% in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (most blue collar riding in Saskatchewan, btw) and finished a decent second in Blackstrap (something that suprises me a lot). I suppose demographically Saskatoon is naturally *much* more Dipper than Regina...
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afleitch
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« Reply #83 on: January 24, 2006, 06:35:53 AM »

For me it's a day. Not a good day, nor a bad day, just a day. I always take sides in every election big and small but not in this one Sad
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #84 on: January 24, 2006, 06:36:31 AM »

Ontario
Grit 54. Down 20 from pre-election. 1 less than predicted, but 7 errors actually.
Tory 40. Up 17 from pre-election. 1 less than predicted, but 5 errors actually.
Dipper 12. Up 5 from pre-election. 2 more than predicted, but 4 errors actually.
i 0. Down 2 from pre-election. As predicted.

Changes -
Con (from Lib) - Ancaster etc, Barrie, Burlington, Chatham - Kent - Essex, Glengarry - Prescott - Russell, Halton, Kitchener - Conestoga, Lambton - Kent - Middlesex, Northumberland - Quinte West, Ottawa - Orleans, Ottawa West - Nepean, Parry Sound - Muskoka, Peterborough, St Catherines, Sarnia - Lambton, Simcoe N, Whitby - Oshawa
NDP (from Lib) - Hamilton E - Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mtn, Parkdale - High Park, Trinity - Spadina
NDP (from i) - London - Fanshawe
Lib (from i) - Mississauga - Erindale

Prediction errors -
Con gain instead of Lib hold - Ottawa - Orleans, Sarnia - Lambton. (Yes, that's right. They predicted Glengarry.)
NDP gain instead of Lib hold - Hamilton Mtn, Parkdale - High Park
NDP gain instead of Con gain - London - Fanshawe
Lib hold instead of Con gain - Newmarket - Aurora, Brent
Lib hold instead of NDP gain Sad - Kenora
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #85 on: January 24, 2006, 06:44:32 AM »

Prediction errors -
Con gain instead of Lib hold - Ottawa - Orleans,

Another old Liberal stronghold gone then. Mind you it's completely changed demographically...

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Interesting...

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One of their worst calls IMO; balanced out by their very good call for neighbouring Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

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Eastern London is the more working class and Socialist inclined part of the city Wink

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Yeah; a tight three way race. NDP candidate came third. Dippers did better than expected in the two Thunder Bay ridings though... came close to ending the since-Confederation rule of the Liberals in Algoma as well. Angus took 50% in Timmins-James Bay...
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #86 on: January 24, 2006, 06:46:31 AM »

279/308. 90.7%. Good night for electionprediction.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #87 on: January 24, 2006, 06:54:52 AM »

It's sort of funny really. Last time the Dippers increased their vote share by ... like ... 50% and added a smattering of seats. Now their vote just went up a notch or two and they gained ten seats.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #88 on: January 24, 2006, 07:03:35 AM »

True Grin
NDP won Skeena by a lot as well Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #89 on: January 24, 2006, 07:41:15 AM »

The following ministers lost...

Deputy PM Anne McLellan
Foreign Affairs Pierre Pettigrew
House Leader Tony Valeri
Canadian Heritage Liza Frulla
Northern Development Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Treasury Board President Reg Alcock
International Cooperation Aileen Carroll
Families and Caregivers Tony Ianno
Quebec Econ. Development Jacques Saada

And possibly Agriculture Minister Andy Mitchell (who lost to Milhouse by 21 votes. There will be a recount).
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #90 on: January 24, 2006, 08:57:23 AM »

The following ministers lost...

Deputy PM Anne McLellan
Foreign Affairs Pierre Pettigrew
House Leader Tony Valeri
Canadian Heritage Liza Frulla
Northern Development Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Treasury Board President Reg Alcock
International Cooperation Aileen Carroll
Families and Caregivers Tony Ianno
Quebec Econ. Development Jacques Saada

And possibly Agriculture Minister Andy Mitchell (who lost to Milhouse by 21 votes. There will be a recount).
Yeah, that was the closest election. Also very close -
Desnethé - Missinippi - Churchill River, 106 votes
Winnipeg South, 120 votes
Glengarry - Prescott - Russell, 210 votes.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #91 on: January 24, 2006, 09:15:11 AM »

Desnethé - Missinippi - Churchill River, 106 votes

I smell fraud with that one; from both sides... Roll Eyes
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #92 on: January 24, 2006, 09:23:29 AM »

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Gabu
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« Reply #93 on: January 24, 2006, 02:49:46 PM »


You're just jealous that our province is so interesting. Tongue
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Storebought
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« Reply #94 on: January 24, 2006, 03:52:25 PM »

I trust that the 10 "ridings" in Quebec that voted Conservative were concentrated in the English-speaking Anglo-Irish parts of the province?

And I thought Manitoba, in federal elections, was much more Liberal than just 3 seats from the previous election.

But, really, what does this election even matter? The Liberals + Blocquistas + the Socialists form an absolute majority and can continue their policy, only without Martin.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #95 on: January 24, 2006, 03:58:59 PM »

I trust that the 10 "ridings" in Quebec that voted Conservative were concentrated in the English-speaking Anglo-Irish parts of the province?

Nope. Only one (Pontiac; rural riding north of Ottawa) has a large Anglo population. The really big concentration is in Quebec City.

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The Liberals, the Bloc and the NDP all hate either other
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« Reply #96 on: January 24, 2006, 04:03:18 PM »


The Liberals, the Bloc and the NDP all hate either other

The NDP has given the Liberals support before.
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« Reply #97 on: January 24, 2006, 04:12:23 PM »

I trust that the 10 "ridings" in Quebec that voted Conservative were concentrated in the English-speaking Anglo-Irish parts of the province?

Nope. Only one (Pontiac; rural riding north of Ottawa) has a large Anglo population. The really big concentration is in Quebec City.

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The Liberals, the Bloc and the NDP all hate either other

But what is a little hate when you can govern an entire country? [/cynicism]

I thought French Canadians only outside of Quebec voted Conservative, at least in provincial elections. I know that NB and Manitoba, in particular, have many French Tory MPs. You learn something everyday ...

Or, put in another way, that the two extant parties in Quebec were the Bloc and the Liberals -- one for "states rights" and the other for federalism.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #98 on: January 24, 2006, 04:19:50 PM »

The NDP has given the Liberals support before.

Yes, but only conditionally; last time they gave genuine support was back in the early '70's.

Like I've said before, Harper has about six months of safety. After that (and only if he messes up badly) they'll be a window period in the late summer/early autumn where he might be toppleable. If not then (and because no one wants to risk another winter election methinks) he'll last into 2007 at least. O/c if things go well, he'll call a snap election at some point and try to get himself a majority.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #99 on: January 24, 2006, 04:31:37 PM »

But what is a little hate when you can govern an entire country? [/cynicism]

The Bloc only want to run one part of the country Tongue

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The Tories doing well in Quebec is something that only started a few weeks ago... seriously... although Charest-PC's did do fairly well there in '97 (but in a different part of Quebec). And if you go back to the '80's, Mulroney pretty much swept the province in '84 and '88.

In New Brunswick the main Franco-Tory area is Madawaska (paired with Franco-Liberal Restigouche at the moment) which is much more like Quebec than it is the rest of NB... the Acadians were always Liberal though (federally anyway. Not quite so solid provincially). Past tense is important; since 1997 the most Acadian riding in NB (Acadie-Bathurst) has been represented by a Dipper (Yvon Godin; who's just beaten a Liberal star candidate by close to 10,000 votes).

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The Tories were good (very good) at attracting soft-nationalists (the hardcore Federalist ridings in Montreal all stayed Liberal; as did the city itself. Just...) this time round.
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