HI-1 special election results

[cinyc]

The number of votes cast looks like it's going to top 150,000:

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http://www.starbulletin.com/news/20100520_vote_counting_begins_as_candidates_make_final_pleas.html

[ag]

The number of votes cast looks like it's going to top 150,000:

Already 159,000

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The inevitable AP results site.

I won't be staying up to watch the results, though. Have fun, left coasters.

[Lunar]

Unfortunately, the national committees haven't been involved in this race that much, the DCCC pulled out a couple weeks ago, and its Repblican counterpart hasn't been involved in this race nearly as enough as would be necessary to sabotage itself like it has repeatedly in every other special election thus far.  I mean, in PA-12, they hilariously spent over $900k.

djou gets about 40%.  Other 2 dems get about equal.

Djou is a solid candidate, I'd put it at 44, and the two dems about equal.

Polling Hawaii isn't the same.

[Holmes]

Ahh that's right, their polls close later for us... and I have a 9 hour shift today and an early one tomorrow so I don't think I'll be staying up too.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Unfortunately, the national committees haven't been involved in this race that much, the DCCC pulled out a couple weeks ago, and its Repblican counterpart hasn't been involved in this race nearly as enough as would be necessary to sabotage itself like it has repeatedly in every other special election thus far.  I mean, in PA-12, they hilariously spent over $900k.

The candidates themselves have been spending quite a bit -- Hanabusa has spent $900k, while Djou has spent $830k and Case $670k (as of 5/2, anyway). I guess with no GOTV campaigns to coordinate, all their money is probably going towards ads.

[yougo1000]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/HI_US_House_0522.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yes, the AP site is here.

[Rowan]

What time should we start getting results?

[Torie]

What time should we start getting results?

Per Meeker, Midnight EST, is when results of previously counted ballots start to be released.

[ajc0918]

Unfortunately, the national committees haven't been involved in this race that much, the DCCC pulled out a couple weeks ago, and its Repblican counterpart hasn't been involved in this race nearly as enough as would be necessary to sabotage itself like it has repeatedly in every other special election thus far.  I mean, in PA-12, they hilariously spent over $900k.

The candidates themselves have been spending quite a bit -- Hanabusa has spent $900k, while Djou has spent $830k and Case $670k (as of 5/2, anyway). I guess with no GOTV campaigns to coordinate, all their money is probably going towards ads.

Is the Hawaii GOP solidified behind Djou? Who are the Hawaii Dems supporting them, how are they supporting this race with two candidates?

[ajc0918]

What time should we start getting results?

Per Meeker, Midnight EST, is when results of previously counted ballots start to be released.

Looks like a late night tonight...

[Verily]

Unfortunately, the national committees haven't been involved in this race that much, the DCCC pulled out a couple weeks ago, and its Repblican counterpart hasn't been involved in this race nearly as enough as would be necessary to sabotage itself like it has repeatedly in every other special election thus far.  I mean, in PA-12, they hilariously spent over $900k.

The candidates themselves have been spending quite a bit -- Hanabusa has spent $900k, while Djou has spent $830k and Case $670k (as of 5/2, anyway). I guess with no GOTV campaigns to coordinate, all their money is probably going towards ads.

Is the Hawaii GOP solidified behind Djou? Who are the Hawaii Dems supporting them, how are they supporting this race with two candidates?

The Hawaii Democrats all back Hanabusa. Case is backed by the DC Democrats.

There isn't much of a Hawaii GOP (in terms of organization or membership), but I suppose they're united behind Djou.

[cinyc]

The inevitable AP results site.

I won't be staying up to watch the results, though. Have fun, left coasters.

I think the results are going to come in fairly quickly.  They started counting earlier in the week.  We might know who won by midnight or so Eastern time.

[cinyc]

Looks like a late night tonight...

Doubtful.  Most of the votes have been in for weeks and Hawaii has been counting the votes this week.  The Hawaii elections page promises results at 6PM HST (12 Midnight Eastern Daylight Time).

http://hawaii.gov/elections

The Hawaii election page is excellent, by the way - providing precinct-level results way back.  It's almost on par with Louisiana's, which I think is the gold standard in elections pages (even providing maps).

[Torie]

It seems that the last time a Republican won a special election to Congress was before the light bulb was invented. When was it? Oh well, the GOP looks set to win a couple now, certainly the Deal seat, where the final is between two Republicans I think.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that the last time a Republican won a special election to Congress was before the light bulb was invented. When was it? Oh well, the GOP looks set to win a couple now, certainly the Deal seat, where the final is between two Republicans I think.

Actually it was in December 11 of 2007 when Bob Latta won the special election for Ohio's 5th district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

May 3, 2008 actually when the GOP retained Jindal's seat. They won a lot of other specials for safe seats in the meantime too.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Last-minute poll (no pollster mentioned) says it's a little tighter than originally thought. Djou 36, Case 31, Hanabusa 17. I don't know how there are undecideds at this point, but whatever.

[xavier110]

Last-minute poll (no pollster mentioned) says it's a little tighter than originally thought. Djou 36, Case 31, Hanabusa 17. I don't know how there are undecideds at this point, but whatever.

Well, with two Democrats in the race, I can see why over 15% of voters may be undecided; I probably would have a hard time choosing between Case and Hanabusa if I thought Case happened to have a better shot at winning.

[Lunar]

weird: http://thecaseisclosed.com

[Torie]

weird: http://thecaseisclosed.com

Isn't the internet fun?  I am glad I lived long enough to enjoy it.

[Lunar]

weird: http://thecaseisclosed.com

Isn't the internet fun?  I am glad I lived long enough to enjoy it.

I tried to find Ed Case's site to listen to what his messaging was, and I saw that Google ad and got distracted

[Torie]

Last-minute poll (no pollster mentioned) says it's a little tighter than originally thought. Djou 36, Case 31, Hanabusa 17. I don't know how there are undecideds at this point, but whatever.

Ah the suspense!  If the poll is perfect, with only 16% undecided, Case would need to get two thirds of the 16% to win.

[Mr.Phips]

Last-minute poll (no pollster mentioned) says it's a little tighter than originally thought. Djou 36, Case 31, Hanabusa 17. I don't know how there are undecideds at this point, but whatever.

Ah the suspense!  If the poll is perfect, with only 16% undecided, Case would need to get two thirds of the 16% to win.

He could get 55% of the 16% and still win.