HI-1 special election results

[Torie]

Last-minute poll (no pollster mentioned) says it's a little tighter than originally thought. Djou 36, Case 31, Hanabusa 17. I don't know how there are undecideds at this point, but whatever.

Ah the suspense!  If the poll is perfect, with only 16% undecided, Case would need to get two thirds of the 16% to win.

He could get 55% of the 16% and still win.  

That posits however, Djou getting about 25%, and Hanabasa getting 30%.  With Hanabusa at 17% of those who have made a decision, that would be a near doubling of strength of both Dems with the those undecided as compared to those who have.

[Mr.Phips]

Last-minute poll (no pollster mentioned) says it's a little tighter than originally thought. Djou 36, Case 31, Hanabusa 17. I don't know how there are undecideds at this point, but whatever.

Ah the suspense!  If the poll is perfect, with only 16% undecided, Case would need to get two thirds of the 16% to win.

He could get 55% of the 16% and still win.  

That posits however, Djou getting about 25%, and Hanabasa getting 30%.  With Hanabusa at 17% of those who have made a decision, that would be a near doubling of strength of both Dems with the those undecided as compared to those who have.

Undecideds usually break pretty heavily to the Dem in Hawaii so I wouldnt expect Djou to pick up much from them.  And Hanabusa appears to be sinking, so Case getting 55% of the undecideds is not out of the question.

[memphis]

I'm going to throw up win the GOP wins with 40% and the talking heads start with OMGZ Republicans win in Obama's best state.

[cinyc]

The number of votes cast looks like it's going to top 150,000:

Already 159,000

163,000 - and still trickling in.  That's about the same number of votes as were cast in the 2006 off-year HI-1 election (162,794).

[Torie]

The number of votes cast looks like it's going to top 150,000:

Already 159,000

163,000 - and still trickling in.  That's about the same number of votes as were cast in the 2006 off-year HI-1 election (162,794).

How many registered voters are there I wonder. That last minute poll said that over half the registered voters had already voted.

Addendum: Registered voters are 317,337. So doing the math, I don't think many of the undecideds voted after the late poll, if at the time of the poll, more than half had already voted.

[Lunar]

Djou, it must be said, is quite the campaigner and has been carefully controlling his profile for years and  years to run for higher office.   I would bet on him overperforming before I would bet on the opposite.  I have this gut feeling that Hanabusa and Djou will overperform while Case will underperform.   Djou has been running an excellent campaign.

And Djou is a pretty darn likeable guy, I mean, every time I glance at his website, I feel compelled to vote for him, and I'm someone who'd vote for Hanabusa as a protest vote over Case.  

[Meeker]

Fortunately a Djou victory can be pretty easily spun by simply pointing out that Democrats got a majority of the vote in the district. And bringing up PA-12 again. I'm not really worried about this anymore.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Fortunately a Djou victory can be pretty easily spun by simply pointing out that Democrats got a majority of the vote in the district. And bringing up PA-12 again. I'm not really worried about this anymore.

Oh, there you go with your liberally biased........ facts.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nothing yet.

[Meeker]

Djou: 39.5%
Hanabusa: 30.8%
Case: 27.6%

100% reporting. That's a wrap folks.

[cinyc]

That was fast - Djou with 39.5% of the vote:

Printed on: 05/22/2010 at 05:12:52 pm
U.S. REP DISTRICT I SPECIAL VACANCY ELECTION - State of Hawaii - Statewide
May 22, 2010
**NUMBER 1**
SUMMARY REPORT
Page 1
Congressional District I
98 of 98
(R) DJOU, Charles 67,274 39.5%
(D) HANABUSA, Colleen 52,445 30.8%
(D) CASE, Ed 47,012 27.6%
(D) DEL CASTILLO, Rafael (Del) 654 0.4%
(N) STRODE, Kalaeloa 489 0.3%
(N) BREWER, Jim 269 0.2%
(D) LEE, Philmund (Phil) 254 0.1%
(R) COLLINS, Charles (Googie) 192 0.1%
(R) AMSTERDAM, C. Kaui Jochanan 169 0.1%
(D) BROWNE, Vinny 149 0.1%
(N) TATAII, Steve 123 0.1%
(R) CRUM, Douglas 107 0.1%
(R) GIUFFRE, John (Raghu) 82 0.0%
(N) MOSELEY, Karl F. 79 0.0%
Blank Votes: 134
Over Votes: 880 0.5%
0.1%
REGISTRATION AND TURNOUT
****************************************
****************************************
SPECIAL
TOTAL REGISTRATION
TOTAL TURNOUT
ABSENTEE TURNOUT
317,337
52.9%
0.7%
PRECINCT TURNOUT
170,312 53.7%
168,010
2,302
OVERSEAS TURNOUT
****************************************
****************************************
OVERSEAS BALLOTS CAST
1ST CONGRESSIONAL
2ND CONGRESSIONAL
285
0
285 0.0%
(C) - CONSTITUTION (D) = DEMOCRAT (G) = GREEN (I) - INDEPENDENT (L) = LIBERTARIAN (N) = NONPARTISAN (R) - REPUBLICAN

[xavier110]

LOL! Hanabusa did really well.

[Torie]

Case didn't live up to expectations I guess.

[cinyc]

Djou: 39.5%
Hanabusa: 30.8%
Case: 27.6%

100% reporting. That's a wrap folks.

There could be a few late straggler walk-in absentees in between 5:12:52pm and 6:00pm.  But that should be all she wrote.

Turnout exceeded the 2006 off-year election.

[Ebowed]

Head Case can return to the hole from which he came now.  Cracker cost us a seat for no good reason.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good, this puts Hanabusa in a great position for November.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Djou: 39.5%
Hanabusa: 30.8%
Case: 27.6%

100% reporting. That's a wrap folks.

Epic fail for out of touch DC Democrats running the DCCC. It's time to throw the deadwood like Case out.

[Tender Branson]

Ok, the polls were right after all ...

Now on to November ...

(Can go sleeping again)

[Torie]

Good, this puts Hanabusa in a great position for November.

Has she secured the nomination for November somehow?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Djou: 39.5%
Hanabusa: 30.8%
Case: 27.6%

100% reporting. That's a wrap folks.

BTW, is there some sort of link to this?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/HI_US_House_0522.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

AP still has nothing. lol.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/HI_US_House_0522.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

AP still has nothing. lol.

Now it says 92 out of 96 precincts reporting.

[Meeker]

http://hawaii.gov/elections/

Click the results link for a PDF

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good, this puts Hanabusa in a great position for November.

Has she secured the nomination for November somehow?

No but this probably makes her the favorite.

[ajc0918]

MUAHAHAHAHA