HI-1 special election results

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

About what I expected.

On Djou, I agree with Torie.  He has talent - which is one of the reasons why I watch listed the race when Abercrombie retired (I saw him on TV a month or two after said point and thought such).  It's also why I'm leery of giving too much movement now also.

You pretty much nailed it at 40%.

I think the story to take away from this election is that the DCCC is filled full of idiots for backing Case.  Such a strange decision they made, and a borderline racially offensive one too to boot.  And despite all their backing, he couldn't even beat Hanabusa.  

Agree on Djou's talent.  Sometimes you gotta respect that.

Well, don't feel bad. Our committees have been full of idiots for years. Its about time the Dems also screwed up.

You GOPers really screwed up with Scozzafava. You should have nominated a conservative from the start. Tedisco also ran a bad campaign, but he was your best shot in that district. As for PA-12, you just got unlucky.

You're misinformed.  The NRCC had nothing to do with Scozzafava, she was picked by the local county chairs, as was Tedisco.

With Tedisco, they picked an establishment conservative and got burned for running someone from outside the district.  In NY-23, the county chairs tried to run a moderate who would run a local issues but instead go burned by Hoffman who, again, didn't live IN the district, and got burned for running a national campaign.

In HI-01, both Democrats didn't live in the district (#*&($#&@).

In all of these special elections, the candidate who lives IN the district wins.  I wish the national and local organizations could figure this out.

Why do people seem to think the NRCC picks the candidates in these special elections. It is so frustrating to have to correct that nonesense.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It seems that the last time a Republican won a special election to Congress was before the light bulb was invented. When was it? Oh well, the GOP looks set to win a couple now, certainly the Deal seat, where the final is between two Republicans I think.

Actually it was in December 11 of 2007 when Bob Latta won the special election for Ohio's 5th district.

Before Djou's victory, the several past House seats to change parties in a special election all went from Rep to Dem. Which actually broke a streak of the reverse.

Not really. Since 1994, only five Republicans have won seats that were Democratic held prior to there election. Four were in the 90's.

1994- Frank Lucas (R-OK) - still in office
1994- Ron Lewis (R-KY) - retired in 2008
1995- Tom Campbell (R-CA) - Ran for Senate in 2000 and lost.
1997- Bill Redmond (R-NM) -  retired
2001- J Randy Forbes (R-VA) - still in office

I'm not sure if you're interpreting my post the way I meant. I was saying that no Republican had won a special election in a Democratic-held district since 2001. Right before that, during the stretch that the five Republicans you list won, no Democrat had won a special election in a Republican-held district.

Anyway, I'm not sure if this is much more than a coincidence.

I thought you meant a much shorter period of time, certainly not 16 years.

[jimrtex]

Good, this puts Hanabusa in a great position for November.

Has she secured the nomination for November somehow?

Hawaii's primary is September 18.

September 11 actually. The legislature early this year moved it forward a week per the Green Papers site.

The legislature moved it to August, but they went back and forth on when it would be effective.  For a while one house had set an effective date of 2050 (sic), and the other for this year.  The version that passed changes it in 2012.

Both the Hawaii elections site and Green Paper say September 18.