2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[The Free North]

If Trump was going to rig the latino vote, why didnt he do it in Arizona? A state he needed far worse than Texas? Arizona hispanics were much more inelastic than Rio Grande ones. Couldn't have anything to do with cultural and economic differences between the two.....

[The Free North]

Any ideas where the vote in Maine is going to come from? Is Collins a lock there?

[The Free North]

I think Trump might squeak by in Georgia. Doesn't really matter but it will make the map look cleaner.

Still, the fact that Florida is going to vote like 2-3% to the right of GA is eye opening.

[The Free North]

Regardless of how this turns out I am so done with this country after last night. For an open white supremacist to almost win re-election because Blacks and Latinos voted for him should show you that we really are the land of the stupid and the home of the uneducated.

Or maybe, just maybe, the world is a lot more complicated than woke culture makes its seem and lecturing other groups on how to vote because you don't agree with it is massively arrogant.

[The Free North]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

[The Free North]

Here's a question- why are Cubans who came into this country ILLEGALLY on boats allowed to stay here and no one questions it? Why hasn't ICE been crawling the streets of Miami deporting all illegal Cubans?

Dems in 2020: Why isn't ICE getting rid of all the people who voted against my candidate?

Remind me how you're approach to border security and immigration is principled and not entirely self serving again?

[The Free North]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609

People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

Massive push to drive up turnout across the country? And those counties have had atrocious turnout for years.

[The Free North]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609

People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

Massive push to drive up turnout across the country? And those counties have had atrocious turnout for years.

Told ya that lo turnout would reveal some shocks in areas with traditionally low turnout

Texas exit polls for hispanics were 59-40 Biden, if you assume urban hispanics voted Biden at a higher rate, you can easily get to 55-45 in rural south texas.

Unless you think the exit polls were fabricated as well.

[The Free North]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

I think in the long-term, Hispanics will mirror the journey of Irish- and Italian-Americans, i.e. they will come to be seen as white, and accordingly vote in line with the white average.

This is the point i've been making for years. There will be variance as there was in prior groups, but the further you get away from the 1st generation of immigrants, the more fragmented the vote becomes as people vote instead on religiosity, economics, etc

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324046952682704896?s=21

So Arizona is going to be the only state that swings right late on?

Doubt

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324052435271405568

Dread from it...
Run from it....

She is headed back boys!

[The Free North]

Maine Sen had probably the worst polling of the entire cycle.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/DrPaulGosar/status/1324028306916700161?s=19

What margin is he looking at.

[The Free North]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

Because it was called last night at like 10 PM by Fox News of all people.

[The Free North]

The one thing that worries me about Arizona is Santa Cruz is almost 100% in and is 67-31 Biden, was 71-23 Clinton. Ok, makes sense if Trump is better with hispanics.

Maricopa was 48-44 in 2016, and is now 52-46. Assuming Trump is doing a little better with Latinos, did he really lose whites by that much there? Maybe, but that seems like a massive flip to Biden? Even if it comes in a little, Biden will still be ahead I think.

[The Free North]

Here is whats left in AZ, take it fwiw

248,000 early ballots that arrived on Monday and Tuesday.
160,000 to 180,000 early ballots that were dropped off on Election Day.
29,000 provisional ballots, about 10,000 of which are from Election Day and the remainder from early voting.


https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/

[The Free North]

Arizona was called.

Yeah but so was Florida in 2000 and this is kind of a unique situation with the virus. Not saying Biden loses it, but his current margin in Maricopa makes 0 sense. Its going to get tighter for sure. Just not sure how much. Either way, it remains unlikely Trump wins the states he needs given WI is done.

[The Free North]

Well guess its still a little interesting. Trump needs a flush of AZ/PA/GA to win. Doubt that happens but who knows.

[The Free North]

Trump closed the gap in Clark County, NV from 11% to 7%

Either thats real or theres a lot of Dem vote left that makes NV not an issue.

[The Free North]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Even Nevada, Georgia and Arizona?

Percent Trump will win:

Georgia: 99%
Arizona: 90%
Nevada: 75%

Trump has a 0% chance in Nevada.

[The Free North]

BLM cost Long Island Democrats big time..........

Tom Suozzi looks like he is going down.

Told you. I know the NYC area. The NYPD is a cult following here. Even in Jersey.

Max Rose, Tom Suozzi, all moderate Democrats, gone.

https://twitter.com/coochievuitton/status/1324053802618658816

New York always looks like that, yes some gains were made by reps near NYC, but its clear this person hasn't looked at an NY electoral map ever. Besides likely being racist, the twitter poster's grammar leaves a lot to be desired as well.

[The Free North]

I hope this doesnt turn ugly.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324086031591886850?s=19

I have won Pennsylvania too!

*Poof*

Thats how it works right?

[The Free North]

Anyone know how much of the vote is left in GA Perdues at 50.2% and Trump is only, 37k ahead of Biden!

It was like 175k before, but I believe were much less than that now.

Unhelpful I know.

[The Free North]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?