2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[forsythvoter]

Yeah, Biden's NV margin will increase if it follows the trajectory of other mail-in ballots.

Talcum X is worried:

https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/1324037740334338048?s=20

Nevada will go Biden, especially since it's more mail-in ballots.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Control of the senate will likely hinge on the runoff in Georgia glad its Warnock vs Loeffler Cunningham looks toast and its looking really hard for Gideon to pull off a win in Maine but theirs a lot of votes left to count their so lets see

Warnock will win imo no matter who wins the GE Pres.
It’s a bold claim, but I have been saying it for a while now.
Him going against Loeffler of all people will make it even better.

It seems like it should be a slam dunk given how terrible a candidate Loeffler is; however, Warnock was one of the biggest underperformers of the entire map.  He got 32% when polls had him in the 40s.

Loeffler+Collins also underperformed. And he should inch upwards as Atlanta comes in. Looks like all the other random candidates overperformed.

[RI]

I really hope James wins just so the GA runoffs don't have any impact on who controls the Senate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I gotta say, I cannot believe voters still split their ballots for Susan Collins after all this.

I think we sometimes forget who the average voter is

[Person Man]

If PA and GA are good, it’s actually a plausible result given the polls. It would be similar to what happened in 2016 but this time it’s not enough.

[MillennialModerate]

One thing is for sure, we're about to get blitzed with money. College ends early due to COVID I'm pretty sure, so I'm going to be pounding the pavement. Georgia was unexpectedly good for Dems, so maybe Ossoff and Warnock could squeak it out.

Tell me you have Venmo. I’ll give you 3 to 1 odds.

[kwabbit]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Is John James going to win?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Control of the senate will likely hinge on the runoff in Georgia glad its Warnock vs Loeffler Cunningham looks toast and its looking really hard for Gideon to pull off a win in Maine but theirs a lot of votes left to count their so lets see

Warnock will win imo no matter who wins the GE Pres.
It’s a bold claim, but I have been saying it for a while now.
Him going against Loeffler of all people will make it even better.

It seems like it should be a slam dunk given how terrible a candidate Loeffler is; however, Warnock was one of the biggest underperformers of the entire map.  He got 32% when polls had him in the 40s.

Loeffler+Collins also underperformed. And he should inch upwards as Atlanta comes in. Looks like all the other random candidates overperformed.

Loeffler and Collins performed about the same as their polls.

[GALeftist]

Is there any chance at all that Gideon wins? I can't figure out who the remaining vote in Maine will favor.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324033062754160643

So we have a 4/5 shift in Northampton, 5pt in Lackawanna, and 4pt i Believe in Dauphin.

Seems like based on the numbers thus far there is overall a small shift in PA towards Biden in the rural areas from 2016

Yeah, in all the rurals that are done it appears that Trump either kept pace with 2016 or Biden got a little shift. Meanwhile in the bigger counties that are completed, Biden's at a 4/5 pt shift. Should be enough for a 1-2pt win.

[UncleSam]

I really hope James wins just so the GA runoffs don't have any impact on who controls the Senate.

Looks like Peters will win narrowly? I think there's a counting error in Antrim that will help James but pretty sure there's just enough vote left in Detroit to swing things to Peters anyway (plus possibly some Grand Rapids city vote to boot).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

I don’t want to insinuate anything, but Southern TX was infamous for voter fraud back in the day.

I don't believe it and we don't have any actual evidence to imply it. Let's not start throwing around allegations, okay? Ya know...for the sake of democracy.

[wbrocks67]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

[politics_king]

I really hope James wins just so the GA runoffs don't have any impact on who controls the Senate.

I would think James loses by a narrow margin and depends on what happens to North Carolina. It would be crazy if the Democrats get 51-49 through all this madness. They'll have to be smart with how they legislate because 2022 could swing back to the GOP in the Senate but these are all big if's. I can't believe we may have Mitch & Nancy still in power. Like WTF.

[Alcibiades]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

I don’t want to insinuate anything, but Southern TX was infamous for voter fraud back in the day.

I don't believe it and we don't have any actual evidence to imply it. Let's not start throwing around allegations, okay? Ya know...for the sake of democracy.

Sorry, it was more a historical tidbit. In case my original post didn’t imply it, I don’t really believe there’s anything fishy going on there either.

[7,052,770]

Is there any chance at all that Gideon wins? I can't figure out who the remaining vote in Maine will favor.

You gotta think Collins needs to be in the 47-48 range for that to be likely for Gideon to win on IRV, although I'll defer to anyone who knows more

[The Free North]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609

People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

Massive push to drive up turnout across the country? And those counties have had atrocious turnout for years.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Trump's betting odds are collapsing.

[EliteLX]

Pardon my french but, what the f*** is the hold up? Let's get a move on already it's 1 PM the following day with almost a complete stall since 3 AM last night.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609

People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

Massive push to drive up turnout across the country? And those counties have had atrocious turnout for years.

Told ya that lo turnout would reveal some shocks in areas with traditionally low turnout

[charcuterie]

Pardon my french but, what the f*** is the hold up? Let's get a move on already it's 1 PM the following day with almost a complete stall since 3 AM last night.

I agree. It's good that WI is almost done, but I was really expecting GA to have updates by now!

[Agonized-Statism]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record here with Puerto Rico, but seriously, we just saw the first step toward a 51st state. It's a "piss or get off the pot" referendum, statehood or independence. Statehood is leading right now. The government can't be forced to act, but surely Democrats will want to get behind this to improve their position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. Why is no one talking about it?

[Canis]

Control of the senate will likely hinge on the runoff in Georgia glad its Warnock vs Loeffler Cunningham looks toast and its looking really hard for Gideon to pull off a win in Maine but theirs a lot of votes left to count their so lets see

Uhh are you bad at math

If Gideon and Cunningham loses the Senate is over

Ah sorry I should have clarified I also meant hoping the remaining mail ins drag Perdue down to a runoff

[wbrocks67]

Pardon my french but, what the f*** is the hold up? Let's get a move on already it's 1 PM the following day with almost a complete stall since 3 AM last night.

I agree. It's good that WI is almost done, but I was really expecting GA to have updates by now!

and AZ, too. They haven't updated since late last night