Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Hnv1]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

Turnout in Umm Al Fahm was 51% in September. I have learnt to ignore these election day turnout for specific towns or sector, and just assume that they are made up.

The September number was just my mistake. The 33% turnout number for 1400 turnout appears to be real, which would put Umm al Fahm well above the September.

Also, reports from the Haredi sector are that turnout is flacid. That would honestly surprise me.

Maybe the synagogues are more concerned with Purim than calling people and getting out the vote as they usually do?

Purim is a minimal holiday. 1 day off to get drunk.

[Hnv1]

56.3% turnout as of 18:00, 3% more than last time. I don't have a good feeling. Apparently KL think that it's either from the Arabs or Likud, and are "very worried".

Could be both as I predicted and tomorrow morning is going to be very very odd

[Hnv1]

Leaked exit polls show big lead to likud but majority

[Hnv1]

Leaked exit polls show big lead to likud but majority

Link?

WhatsApp and twitter. But let’s wait and see. So far I hear the right are on 59-60

[Hnv1]

I did warn you lot that Likud are planning a massive ground game campaign...

I suspect it will be 60 seats in the end as the JL and YB have no “leftover agreements”

[Hnv1]

Looking through some of the results, it seems the JL did gain among Jewish voters but not so much. Maybe one Jewish seat, so it’s mainly Arab turnout behind the surge

[Hnv1]

Orly levy is going to defect, I can feel it

[Hnv1]

Orly levy is going to defect, I can feel it

No, she made a pretty blistering atrack on Bibi this morning. And Bibi needs two defectors, not one.

I honestly feel like a Gantz minority government is a hugely underrated possibility. If we go to fourth elections Liberman could drop even further (and run out of money). Propping up a left wing government would be crazy, but also new elections would be, for him, politically crazy.

But Gantz was pretty firmly rejected last night, so anything he tries to form will he weighed down heavily by the baggage of his loss. Maybe they'll run Gabi Ashkenazi first on the list in a new election.

It is both unlikely due the Lieberman comment, and if the gap between him and Likud is larger than 2 it will look very bad.

I also would rule out Bibi working against such government in an undemocratic manner

[Hnv1]

So as it stands:

Labour and Meretz are both dead, whether they merge or seperate and join other parties, they have no right of existence alone. I heard that if Golan ends up in he's going to demand a primaries for the entire party.

Yamina is again proven to be a bluff. JH 2013 isn't going to happen again. a party of 6 seats, 3 factions, 4 chairmen, 17 egos.

Odeh is making anti Gantz noises this morning, I wouldn't rule out the JL avoiding the confidence vote with a promise to a lot of investment in the Arab sector and sorting some land issues. Bibi at this point will give them a second lien on his wife if needed.

[Hnv1]

how vindictive was Freg?

Kfar Qassam April 2019 3623 votes for Meretz, yesterday 717 votes
Foreidis April 2019 1555 votes, yesterday 33!

both are places where he has a lot of people on the ground.

[Hnv1]

Otzma lost the Sephardi and the Chabad voters, so their core boils down to 20K.

Now finally we can put them aside.

Though I do suspect that May Golan from Likud will operate on behalf for them

[Hnv1]

Haaretz is reporting that Omer Yankelovitch was blackmailed by the Likud to defect, threatening to pubkish a tape with compromising material


But please tell me, noble right wing Israeli voters, how  your vote was born neither of malice nor ignorance but rather of a deep, abiding love of country. Gantz needs to do whatever he needs to do to put together enough votes to put a nail in Netanyahu's political coffin. This is so grotesque.

Everybody and his sister already heard the gossip about her and Gantz, boring.

[Hnv1]

Had to take a nap there, since I am also pulling a long night again for Super Tuesday.

Anyway, since we are at the point of discussing the double envelopes, does anyone know if the Corona booths are treated as double's or are they counted regularly?

double envelopes
some 4K

[Hnv1]

I wonder why they stopped dumping more votes at 90% counted.

[Hnv1]

I'll wait with the verdict. Double envelopes and surpluses might lead to 61 in the end

[Hnv1]

Lieberman is a secuar rightwinger and a racist who believes Arabs and Palestinians are the enemy. The fact that he's at odds with Bibi doesn't mean he will be for a real political change. Accepting the participation of the Joint List would entail a real democratic revolution and I get the impression most of Jewish Israelis are not for democracy, far from that.

On a side note, out of gloomy forecasts for democracy in the Middle East, I am curious to know the results of the coronavirus ballot box. The votes will be counted tomorrow, right? Shas landslide, perhaps?

there were 18 corona precincts, and you won't get a result for them specifically. A friend of mine voted in one in the Sharon, but there were others in Likud areas. so I suppose it's an even spread.

[Hnv1]

Likud temporarily down to 35 JL up to 16

[Hnv1]

Likud temporarily down to 35 JL up to 16

How do we know its only temporary?

Only 92% counted, still without the double envelopes

[Hnv1]

And back to 36 and 15

[Hnv1]

293k/340K double envelopes counted: Likud with 32.7% B&W 29.6% Yamina 8.4% LGM 7.4% Shas 7.1% JL 5. 4% YB 4.1% UTJ 3.9%

As usual the soldiers tilt it to the right, and to the "younger" parties.

[Hnv1]

And there it is. Blue and White flipped the Shas seat and so the Bibi bloc is down to 58 and the anti-Bibi bloc is at 62 seats. I suspect this is where it will finish unless Likud does really well in the last batch of votes.

hnv, do you know if there are any legal complications with passing a law without a coalition barring a PM from forming a government while under indictment? A lot of talk about the anti-Bibi bloc passing a law right away to bar Bibi from being able to form a government, but I suspect it may be a constitutionally close question.

I sometimes feel you're my friend Omer in disguise, as you always have the same talking points with me at the same time (literally asked me the same an hour ago)

Well... several issues:
a/ firstly, it's a change to the basic-law requiring three hearings and a majority of 61 in each. in order to get that change fast through the house you need to change the speaker first, meaning YB and JL would have to agree to a speaker by B&W to be sworn in on the first hour the Knesset seats. So basically, yes, the Knesset is sovereign to pass any legislation at any time, but the procedure is complicated,

b/ If Rivlin gives the mandate straight away then changing the law while Bibi has it is retroprospective (to all intent in purpose just read it as retroactive legislation) which is quite troubling and a notorious ground to void a law, on the other hand it is a basic-law, and nullifying a basic-law hasn't been done in Israel and it's quite murky whether it's constitutional viable (our Kelsenian theory of norms being the problem here). For years the right had been shouting that basic-laws are immune to judicial review, but now they will have to appeal to the SC against them. the SC would have to decide it with 13 justices.
 
c/ also, any of the complicated legal proceedings here would require a decision on whether you can appeal against the president (who is supposed to be immune of any legal proceedings). Another major constitutional question to decide.

d/ other big constitutional questions I'm not going to bore you with

e/ as I heard, Rivlin is pondering whether to give a mandate at all, and simply moving it to the Knesset (third phase) so whoever gets 61 signatures automatically gets the mandate. If this happens they have 21 days to change the basic-law. But if that does happen I don't expect Likud to play by the rules, the legitimacy of the democratic process will be questioned, and unrest and violence might ensue.

So either they somehow manage to do it fast but then the political backlash might be massive (don't rule out violence), or it will be too late and then the SC decision on the matter could take a while. Will the SC issue a writ postponing a fourth election to decide this entire bundle of questions?

In the realm of the constitutional crisis the legal answer is vague at best

[Hnv1]

And there it is. Blue and White flipped the Shas seat and so the Bibi bloc is down to 58 and the anti-Bibi bloc is at 62 seats. I suspect this is where it will finish unless Likud does really well in the last batch of votes.

hnv, do you know if there are any legal complications with passing a law without a coalition barring a PM from forming a government while under indictment? A lot of talk about the anti-Bibi bloc passing a law right away to bar Bibi from being able to form a government, but I suspect it may be a constitutionally close question.

I sometimes feel you're my friend Omer in disguise, as you always have the same talking points with me at the same time (literally asked me the same an hour ago)

Well... several issues:
a/ firstly, it's a change to the basic-law requiring three hearings and a majority of 61 in each. in order to get that change fast through the house you need to change the speaker first, meaning YB and JL would have to agree to a speaker by B&W to be sworn in on the first hour the Knesset seats. So basically, yes, the Knesset is sovereign to pass any legislation at any time, but the procedure is complicated,

b/ If Rivlin gives the mandate straight away then changing the law while Bibi has it is retroprospective (to all intent in purpose just read it as retroactive legislation) which is quite troubling and a notorious ground to void a law, on the other hand it is a basic-law, and nullifying a basic-law hasn't been done in Israel and it's quite murky whether it's constitutional viable (our Kelsenian theory of norms being the problem here). For years the right had been shouting that basic-laws are immune to judicial review, but now they will have to appeal to the SC against them. the SC would have to decide it with 13 justices.
 
c/ also, any of the complicated legal proceedings here would require a decision on whether you can appeal against the president (who is supposed to be immune of any legal proceedings). Another major constitutional question to decide.

d/ other big constitutional questions I'm not going to bore you with

e/ as I heard, Rivlin is pondering whether to give a mandate at all, and simply moving it to the Knesset (third phase) so whoever gets 61 signatures automatically gets the mandate. If this happens they have 21 days to change the basic-law. But if that does happen I don't expect Likud to play by the rules, the legitimacy of the democratic process will be questioned, and unrest and violence might ensue.

So either they somehow manage to do it fast but then the political backlash might be massive (don't rule out violence), or it will be too late and then the SC decision on the matter could take a while. Will the SC issue a writ postponing a fourth election to decide this entire bundle of questions?

In the realm of the constitutional crisis the legal answer is vague at best

I've also read that the basic law wouldn't allow Rivlin to expedite the process and just bypass the recommendations and appoint whomevervhe wants. So who knows.

I actually wouldn't rule out Bibi leaving politocs for good in exchange for immunity. I'm not sure KL would support that or not. The problem for Bibo is that he simply cannot get the country to give him a majority. This was really his strongest shot, and he fell three seats short. Obviously Gantz can't get a majority, either, so at some point the right and left will have to cooperate without totally sacrificing their principles. With Bibi at 10 Balfour that is impossible and everyone knows it. The right just doesn't know how to crawl out from under his thumb.

Well the basic-law says that he's allowed to notify the speaker that no one is fit to form a government and move to phase three directly (section 9(A))

I doubt Bibi will leave for a plea bargain, nor is it desirable to a democracy. Conviction will take years and I truly believe he thinks that he could get the majority in the end to get him out

[Hnv1]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

[Hnv1]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

It's hard to call 62 seats--a majority--losers. They wouldn't  have the votes if they had lost. If people wanted to keep Bibi in power they had several right wing parties to choose from that promised to do exactly that. A majority instead chose parties that oppose Bibi. That's how it goes.

That said, though, I would much prefer the opposition form a government before woreying about a legislation. Lawmaking should be uaed to better the country not get an advantage in post-election coalition negotiations. Grow up, form a Gantz-led coalition, and only then rewrite the law so that people like Netanyahu cannot subvert our democracy for personal gain.

all of that aside, you're not going to give mass constitutional theory lessons to the general public. it looks bad.

If they want they should declare a list of constitutional reforms going to the 4th election, and then it will be a quasi plebiscite

[Hnv1]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

What amendments are they proposing?

Unrelatedly, a strange point of comparison occurred to me this morning. This result is akin to the one a lot of pessimistic Labourites in the UK were hoping/expecting would happen last December: the right wing wins but too narrowly to break the deadlock, leading to at least the possibility of changes of leadership at the top of both parties.

Amending article 18 of the basic-law government saying an indicted MK cannot be given a manadate (or act) as a PM. beyond the legal and democratic complications this is just political suicide. think of impeachment times 20