Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

How much of Tel Aviv is still outstanding?  If it is done then probably good news for Bibi, if not could mean BW has a chance.

It's either mostly or entirely in. The problem for Bibi is that even though the Likud may even net an extra seat or two, it will probably come at the expense of the Haredim (or possibly Joint List).

[danny]

With more votes counted it's looking more like the exit polls, with right bloc on 60 and Joint List with 15.

[Walmart_shopper]

With more votes counted it's looking more like the exit polls, with right bloc on 60 and Joint List with 15.

Yeah it entirely depends on where the last 20 percent is coming from. And to a lesser extent the double envelopes.

I would guess that Bibi will end up with 59 because there is no way the Haredim will maintain the 18 mandates they currently have.

[Walmart_shopper]

Indeed with 90% in UTJ just lost a seat to KL. So mow it's 59-54 for the Likud.

I suspect that's the difference between a government of some sort and a fourth election.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Indeed with 90% in UTJ just lost a seat to KL. So mow it's 59-54 for the Likud.

I suspect that's the difference between a government of some sort and a fourth election.

Shas at 10 seems too much as well. Hopefully they lose a seat to the JL.

[danny]

The double envelopes are usually good for KL, Likud, and the Joint List, and obviously those will he last to get counted.

The Joint List is the biggest loser from double envelopes, Yamina is the biggest gainer (or were last time).

Share of the double envelope vote compared to the overall vote in September (%):
Yamina +51
Otzma +25
BW +16
Meretz +14
Likud +11
Labour -2
Shas -16
Beitenu -28
UTJ -31
Joint List -60

Of course, double envelopes were only about 6.3% of the vote so it might not actually change any seats.

[Hnv1]

Orly levy is going to defect, I can feel it

[Walmart_shopper]

Orly levy is going to defect, I can feel it

 Bibi needs two defectors, not one.

I honestly feel like a Gantz minority government is a hugely underrated possibility. If we go to fourth elections Liberman could drop even further (and run out of money). Propping up a left wing government would be crazy, but also new elections would be, for him, politically crazy.

But Gantz was pretty firmly rejected last night, so anything he tries to form will he weighed down heavily by the baggage of his loss. Maybe they'll run Gabi Ashkenazi first on the list in a new election.

[Hnv1]

Orly levy is going to defect, I can feel it

No, she made a pretty blistering atrack on Bibi this morning. And Bibi needs two defectors, not one.

I honestly feel like a Gantz minority government is a hugely underrated possibility. If we go to fourth elections Liberman could drop even further (and run out of money). Propping up a left wing government would be crazy, but also new elections would be, for him, politically crazy.

But Gantz was pretty firmly rejected last night, so anything he tries to form will he weighed down heavily by the baggage of his loss. Maybe they'll run Gabi Ashkenazi first on the list in a new election.

It is both unlikely due the Lieberman comment, and if the gap between him and Likud is larger than 2 it will look very bad.

I also would rule out Bibi working against such government in an undemocratic manner

[Zinneke]

Orly levy is going to defect, I can feel it

No, she made a pretty blistering atrack on Bibi this morning. And Bibi needs two defectors, not one.

I honestly feel like a Gantz minority government is a hugely underrated possibility. If we go to fourth elections Liberman could drop even further (and run out of money). Propping up a left wing government would be crazy, but also new elections would be, for him, politically crazy.

But Gantz was pretty firmly rejected last night, so anything he tries to form will he weighed down heavily by the baggage of his loss. Maybe they'll run Gabi Ashkenazi first on the list in a new election.

Yeah how can any of these parties afford 4 elections in a row?

[Walmart_shopper]

Orly levy is going to defect, I can feel it

No, she made a pretty blistering atrack on Bibi this morning. And Bibi needs two defectors, not one.

I honestly feel like a Gantz minority government is a hugely underrated possibility. If we go to fourth elections Liberman could drop even further (and run out of money). Propping up a left wing government would be crazy, but also new elections would be, for him, politically crazy.

But Gantz was pretty firmly rejected last night, so anything he tries to form will he weighed down heavily by the baggage of his loss. Maybe they'll run Gabi Ashkenazi first on the list in a new election.

It is both unlikely due the Lieberman comment, and if the gap between him and Likud is larger than 2 it will look very bad.

I also would rule out Bibi working against such government in an undemocratic manner

I agree. It's not likely. But I'm just commenting on the certainty on the right that they can form a government. I see that roughly in the same way that I see a Gantz minority government--not likely but still not implausible. I just find the "Bibi won" narrative utterly odd given the fact that he has no obvious path to form a government. He can chatter about "defections" on the left but that is actually very unlikely to happen. A fourth election is probably most likely, which is funny because everyone seems so positive that we WON'T have a fourth election.

[Velasco]

I have to admit Bibi's mastery in trolling an entire nation alongside its biggest foes and allies. Only Putin can compete against him. Ecce Homo

[Hnv1]

So as it stands:

Labour and Meretz are both dead, whether they merge or seperate and join other parties, they have no right of existence alone. I heard that if Golan ends up in he's going to demand a primaries for the entire party.

Yamina is again proven to be a bluff. JH 2013 isn't going to happen again. a party of 6 seats, 3 factions, 4 chairmen, 17 egos.

Odeh is making anti Gantz noises this morning, I wouldn't rule out the JL avoiding the confidence vote with a promise to a lot of investment in the Arab sector and sorting some land issues. Bibi at this point will give them a second lien on his wife if needed.

[Hnv1]

how vindictive was Freg?

Kfar Qassam April 2019 3623 votes for Meretz, yesterday 717 votes
Foreidis April 2019 1555 votes, yesterday 33!

both are places where he has a lot of people on the ground.

[Hnv1]

Otzma lost the Sephardi and the Chabad voters, so their core boils down to 20K.

Now finally we can put them aside.

Though I do suspect that May Golan from Likud will operate on behalf for them

[Walmart_shopper]

Haaretz is reporting that Omer Yankelovitch was blackmailed by the Likud to defect, threatening to pubkish a tape with compromising material


But please tell me, noble right wing Israeli voters, how  your vote was born neither of malice nor ignorance but rather of a deep, abiding love of country. Gantz needs to do whatever he needs to do to put together enough votes to put a nail in Netanyahu's political coffin. This is so grotesque.

[danny]

Haaretz is reporting that Omer Yankelovitch was blackmailed by the Likud to defect, threatening to pubkish a tape with compromising material


But please tell me, noble right wing Israeli voters, how  your vote was born neither of malice nor ignorance but rather of a deep, abiding love of country. Gantz needs to do whatever he needs to do to put together enough votes to put a nail in Netanyahu's political coffin. This is so grotesque.

I don't see the connection between the two right wing voters think that there world view would be best for the country. The exact tactics the Likud uses to achieve this doesn't change that, shady as they may be.

In the same manner, the left genuinely supported the Oslo accords and thought it was best for the country even though Rabin had to bribe Gonen Segev to pass it.

[Hnv1]

Haaretz is reporting that Omer Yankelovitch was blackmailed by the Likud to defect, threatening to pubkish a tape with compromising material


But please tell me, noble right wing Israeli voters, how  your vote was born neither of malice nor ignorance but rather of a deep, abiding love of country. Gantz needs to do whatever he needs to do to put together enough votes to put a nail in Netanyahu's political coffin. This is so grotesque.

Everybody and his sister already heard the gossip about her and Gantz, boring.

[Oryxslayer]

Had to take a nap there, since I am also pulling a long night again for Super Tuesday.

Anyway, since we are at the point of discussing the double envelopes, does anyone know if the Corona booths are treated as double's or are they counted regularly?

[Hnv1]

Had to take a nap there, since I am also pulling a long night again for Super Tuesday.

Anyway, since we are at the point of discussing the double envelopes, does anyone know if the Corona booths are treated as double's or are they counted regularly?

double envelopes
some 4K

[jaymichaud]

Whew my anger/frustration has just turned into second hand embarrassment this morning... you giys need to press the left, center and Lieberman to block him forming a coalition NOW

[Hnv1]

I wonder why they stopped dumping more votes at 90% counted.

[Walmart_shopper]

Whew my anger/frustration has just turned into second hand embarrassment this morning... you giys need to press the left, center and Lieberman to block him forming a coalition NOW

I'm relieved there will not be a right wing government. I'm extremely disappointed that it was maybe a half percent away from happening, and that Bibi will almost certainly remain PM for at least another six months.

[Walmart_shopper]

I wonder why they stopped dumping more votes at 90% counted.

Apparently 20 boxes will only be counted on Sunday and there are all the double envelopes left. I think that might be it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's actually quite incredible to see something like Duverger's Law operating in a system of nearly pure proportional representation - a testament to quite how astonishingly polarising the incumbent PM is.