Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

"Interesting" take on where Jewish votes for JL might be coming from

That explains everything.

[Zinneke]

I know this a question that should have been asked two elections who, but what was Zehut 's position on the Palistinian question and Israel's borders?

[Oryxslayer]

Swing map from Election 2 with present votes counted. It essentially confirms the pre-results rumors. The biggest cities barely moved. Likud strongholds came out in droves. The Arab towns surged. This was less about voter transfer and swing and more about the Pro-Bibi parties not losing 2%+ to the threshold.

[BP🌹]

\the Palistinian question

I always wonder if the irony is lost on Zionists when they use this phrase, or if it's deliberate.

[America Needs R'hllor]

\the Palistinian question

I always wonder if the irony is lost on Zionists when they use this phrase, or if it's deliberate.

Why are you assuming they're a Zionist? Anyway:

I know this a question that should have been asked two elections who, but what was Zehut 's position on the Palistinian question and Israel's borders?

Zehut were far right on the issue, against a 2SS. Basically appartheid, like their fellows in Yamina and most of Likud.

[MaxQue]

What are double envelopes?

[Oryxslayer]

JL probably got that seat back for the moment from Likud since of these next 10K votes, the Joint list gained ~4.5K votes to 2K each for B&W and Likud.

[danny]

What are double envelopes?

All votes that aren't done in a normal polling place. The largest group of these is soldiers voting on their base, but it also includes prisoners (Israel doesn't disenfranchise anyone), hospital patients, embassy workers (but not just anyone travelling abroad), and new group this time which is people in quarantine because of potentially being exposed to Corona virus.

[Blair]

\the Palistinian question

I always wonder if the irony is lost on Zionists when they use this phrase, or if it's deliberate.

Is it really necessary to allude to that in this thread?

[Zinneke]

\the Palistinian question

I always wonder if the irony is lost on Zionists when they use this phrase, or if it's deliberate.

Why are you assuming they're a Zionist? Anyway:

I know this a question that should have been asked two elections who, but what was Zehut 's position on the Palistinian question and Israel's borders?

Zehut were far right on the issue, against a 2SS. Basically appartheid, like their fellows in Yamina and most of Likud.

Thanks.

And yes BP link, although I don't know if I'm a Zionist or not (because its so hard to define) I am intrigued as to why you think calling it the Palestinian question necessarily means pro-Zionist or pro-Israeli Right. I didn't mean any offense in any case.

[jaymichaud]

What are double envelopes?

All votes that aren't done in a normal polling place. The largest group of these is soldiers voting on their base, but it also includes prisoners (Israel doesn't disenfranchise anyone), hospital patients, embassy workers (but not just anyone travelling abroad), and new group this time which is people in quarantine because of potentially being exposed to Corona virus.

Who wins the prisoner votes, usually? Likud?

[danny]

Thanks.

And yes BP link, although I don't know if I'm a Zionist or not (because its so hard to define) I am intrigued as to why you think calling it the Palestinian question necessarily means pro-Zionist or pro-Israeli Right. I didn't mean any offense in any case.

It's a reference to the "Jewish question" from Nazi times.

[danny]

Who wins the prisoner votes, usually? Likud?

Joint List since forty something percent of prisoners are Arab. But there aren't that many people in jail, so JL still does poorly amongst double envelopes over all.

[Velasco]

\the Palistinian question

I always wonder if the irony is lost on Zionists when they use this phrase, or if it's deliberate.

Is it really necessary to allude to that in this thread?

It's unescapable, even though discussion here should be focused on elections. The ''question'' is underlying in eceeything and parties allude to it in their platforms, one way or another. But another question is that many people tend to replace explicit allusions to the ''question'' with euphemisms, because reality is so ugly. I don't know why the expression implies a Zionist bias, although alluding the ''Jewish question'' has a sinister historical resonance. Also, remember that most Palestinians are disenfranchised to vote, even rhough the Israeli government rules over their lives.

[BP🌹]

My post wasn't really a criticism of Zinneke (and I have no idea what his views are), but rather a comment on the phrase itself.

[jaymichaud]

Labor want Peretz out, apparently.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud just gained a seat, but it came from Shas. So the right bloc remains as only 58, with the Joint List at 58. I still think 59 is a realistic possibility, but I really doubt they'll get to 60.

[Walmart_shopper]

The count is almost at 98%, Shas grabbed that seat back from the Joint List. So now the right is back up to 59. Blue and White is close to another seat, which they would take from Shas. That is certainly possible, and would leave KL behind Likud 36-33. So it seems that the Bibi bloc will finish with either 58 or 59 seats depending on whether KL gets enough of the remaining vote.

Absolutely no clue how anyone gets a government out of any of that. After spending 24 hours fêteing Bibi's "historic victory" the media is realizing that nobody actually won and the realistic (I would say likely) prospect of a fourth election is beginning to set in.

Not a great result, but certainly better than the nightmare we were looking at election night.

[Hnv1]

293k/340K double envelopes counted: Likud with 32.7% B&W 29.6% Yamina 8.4% LGM 7.4% Shas 7.1% JL 5. 4% YB 4.1% UTJ 3.9%

As usual the soldiers tilt it to the right, and to the "younger" parties.

[Walmart_shopper]

And there it is. Blue and White flipped the Shas seat and so the Bibi bloc is down to 58 and the anti-Bibi bloc is at 62 seats. I suspect this is where it will finish unless Likud does really well in the last batch of votes.

hnv, do you know if there are any legal complications with passing a law without a coalition barring a PM from forming a government while under indictment? A lot of talk about the anti-Bibi bloc passing a law right away to bar Bibi from being able to form a government, but I suspect it may be a constitutionally close question.

[Hnv1]

And there it is. Blue and White flipped the Shas seat and so the Bibi bloc is down to 58 and the anti-Bibi bloc is at 62 seats. I suspect this is where it will finish unless Likud does really well in the last batch of votes.

hnv, do you know if there are any legal complications with passing a law without a coalition barring a PM from forming a government while under indictment? A lot of talk about the anti-Bibi bloc passing a law right away to bar Bibi from being able to form a government, but I suspect it may be a constitutionally close question.

I sometimes feel you're my friend Omer in disguise, as you always have the same talking points with me at the same time (literally asked me the same an hour ago)

Well... several issues:
a/ firstly, it's a change to the basic-law requiring three hearings and a majority of 61 in each. in order to get that change fast through the house you need to change the speaker first, meaning YB and JL would have to agree to a speaker by B&W to be sworn in on the first hour the Knesset seats. So basically, yes, the Knesset is sovereign to pass any legislation at any time, but the procedure is complicated,

b/ If Rivlin gives the mandate straight away then changing the law while Bibi has it is retroprospective (to all intent in purpose just read it as retroactive legislation) which is quite troubling and a notorious ground to void a law, on the other hand it is a basic-law, and nullifying a basic-law hasn't been done in Israel and it's quite murky whether it's constitutional viable (our Kelsenian theory of norms being the problem here). For years the right had been shouting that basic-laws are immune to judicial review, but now they will have to appeal to the SC against them. the SC would have to decide it with 13 justices.
 
c/ also, any of the complicated legal proceedings here would require a decision on whether you can appeal against the president (who is supposed to be immune of any legal proceedings). Another major constitutional question to decide.

d/ other big constitutional questions I'm not going to bore you with

e/ as I heard, Rivlin is pondering whether to give a mandate at all, and simply moving it to the Knesset (third phase) so whoever gets 61 signatures automatically gets the mandate. If this happens they have 21 days to change the basic-law. But if that does happen I don't expect Likud to play by the rules, the legitimacy of the democratic process will be questioned, and unrest and violence might ensue.

So either they somehow manage to do it fast but then the political backlash might be massive (don't rule out violence), or it will be too late and then the SC decision on the matter could take a while. Will the SC issue a writ postponing a fourth election to decide this entire bundle of questions?

In the realm of the constitutional crisis the legal answer is vague at best

[Walmart_shopper]

So the final tally, barring some major surprise, will be:

Likud 36
KL 33
Joint List 15
Shas 9
Yisrael Beyteinu 7
Labor-Meretz-Gesher 7
UTJ 7
Yamina 6 (lol)

Religious-right 58
Center-left-Arab 55
Lieberman 7

Congratulations to hnv for an original pick that almost nailed it. You shouldn't have freaked out on election day and revised your prediction to the right. This is neither what I predicted nor wanted, but I am honestly breathing a sigh of relief that we the status quo was pretty much preserved from September. The priblem is that I no longer believe that the left can actually get to 61 against Bibi, so I doubt a new election would solve anything. I am praying that Liberman and the Joint List find a way to play nice and finally give the majority the government it voted for. But I don't see that as likely.

[Walmart_shopper]

And there it is. Blue and White flipped the Shas seat and so the Bibi bloc is down to 58 and the anti-Bibi bloc is at 62 seats. I suspect this is where it will finish unless Likud does really well in the last batch of votes.

hnv, do you know if there are any legal complications with passing a law without a coalition barring a PM from forming a government while under indictment? A lot of talk about the anti-Bibi bloc passing a law right away to bar Bibi from being able to form a government, but I suspect it may be a constitutionally close question.

I sometimes feel you're my friend Omer in disguise, as you always have the same talking points with me at the same time (literally asked me the same an hour ago)

Well... several issues:
a/ firstly, it's a change to the basic-law requiring three hearings and a majority of 61 in each. in order to get that change fast through the house you need to change the speaker first, meaning YB and JL would have to agree to a speaker by B&W to be sworn in on the first hour the Knesset seats. So basically, yes, the Knesset is sovereign to pass any legislation at any time, but the procedure is complicated,

b/ If Rivlin gives the mandate straight away then changing the law while Bibi has it is retroprospective (to all intent in purpose just read it as retroactive legislation) which is quite troubling and a notorious ground to void a law, on the other hand it is a basic-law, and nullifying a basic-law hasn't been done in Israel and it's quite murky whether it's constitutional viable (our Kelsenian theory of norms being the problem here). For years the right had been shouting that basic-laws are immune to judicial review, but now they will have to appeal to the SC against them. the SC would have to decide it with 13 justices.
 
c/ also, any of the complicated legal proceedings here would require a decision on whether you can appeal against the president (who is supposed to be immune of any legal proceedings). Another major constitutional question to decide.

d/ other big constitutional questions I'm not going to bore you with

e/ as I heard, Rivlin is pondering whether to give a mandate at all, and simply moving it to the Knesset (third phase) so whoever gets 61 signatures automatically gets the mandate. If this happens they have 21 days to change the basic-law. But if that does happen I don't expect Likud to play by the rules, the legitimacy of the democratic process will be questioned, and unrest and violence might ensue.

So either they somehow manage to do it fast but then the political backlash might be massive (don't rule out violence), or it will be too late and then the SC decision on the matter could take a while. Will the SC issue a writ postponing a fourth election to decide this entire bundle of questions?

In the realm of the constitutional crisis the legal answer is vague at best

I've also read that the basic law wouldn't allow Rivlin to expedite the process and just bypass the recommendations and appoint whomevervhe wants. So who knows.

I actually wouldn't rule out Bibi leaving politocs for good in exchange for immunity. I'm not sure KL would support that or not. The problem for Bibo is that he simply cannot get the country to give him a majority. This was really his strongest shot, and he fell three seats short. Obviously Gantz can't get a majority, either, so at some point the right and left will have to cooperate without totally sacrificing their principles. With Bibi at 10 Balfour that is impossible and everyone knows it. The right just doesn't know how to crawl out from under his thumb.

[Hnv1]

And there it is. Blue and White flipped the Shas seat and so the Bibi bloc is down to 58 and the anti-Bibi bloc is at 62 seats. I suspect this is where it will finish unless Likud does really well in the last batch of votes.

hnv, do you know if there are any legal complications with passing a law without a coalition barring a PM from forming a government while under indictment? A lot of talk about the anti-Bibi bloc passing a law right away to bar Bibi from being able to form a government, but I suspect it may be a constitutionally close question.

I sometimes feel you're my friend Omer in disguise, as you always have the same talking points with me at the same time (literally asked me the same an hour ago)

Well... several issues:
a/ firstly, it's a change to the basic-law requiring three hearings and a majority of 61 in each. in order to get that change fast through the house you need to change the speaker first, meaning YB and JL would have to agree to a speaker by B&W to be sworn in on the first hour the Knesset seats. So basically, yes, the Knesset is sovereign to pass any legislation at any time, but the procedure is complicated,

b/ If Rivlin gives the mandate straight away then changing the law while Bibi has it is retroprospective (to all intent in purpose just read it as retroactive legislation) which is quite troubling and a notorious ground to void a law, on the other hand it is a basic-law, and nullifying a basic-law hasn't been done in Israel and it's quite murky whether it's constitutional viable (our Kelsenian theory of norms being the problem here). For years the right had been shouting that basic-laws are immune to judicial review, but now they will have to appeal to the SC against them. the SC would have to decide it with 13 justices.
 
c/ also, any of the complicated legal proceedings here would require a decision on whether you can appeal against the president (who is supposed to be immune of any legal proceedings). Another major constitutional question to decide.

d/ other big constitutional questions I'm not going to bore you with

e/ as I heard, Rivlin is pondering whether to give a mandate at all, and simply moving it to the Knesset (third phase) so whoever gets 61 signatures automatically gets the mandate. If this happens they have 21 days to change the basic-law. But if that does happen I don't expect Likud to play by the rules, the legitimacy of the democratic process will be questioned, and unrest and violence might ensue.

So either they somehow manage to do it fast but then the political backlash might be massive (don't rule out violence), or it will be too late and then the SC decision on the matter could take a while. Will the SC issue a writ postponing a fourth election to decide this entire bundle of questions?

In the realm of the constitutional crisis the legal answer is vague at best

I've also read that the basic law wouldn't allow Rivlin to expedite the process and just bypass the recommendations and appoint whomevervhe wants. So who knows.

I actually wouldn't rule out Bibi leaving politocs for good in exchange for immunity. I'm not sure KL would support that or not. The problem for Bibo is that he simply cannot get the country to give him a majority. This was really his strongest shot, and he fell three seats short. Obviously Gantz can't get a majority, either, so at some point the right and left will have to cooperate without totally sacrificing their principles. With Bibi at 10 Balfour that is impossible and everyone knows it. The right just doesn't know how to crawl out from under his thumb.

Well the basic-law says that he's allowed to notify the speaker that no one is fit to form a government and move to phase three directly (section 9(A))

I doubt Bibi will leave for a plea bargain, nor is it desirable to a democracy. Conviction will take years and I truly believe he thinks that he could get the majority in the end to get him out

[Walmart_shopper]

Sure enough, KL is now advancing a bill that would effectively force Netanyahu to resign. The Joint List signalled that they would be happy to be a part of a majority supporting the bill.