Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[MATTROSE94]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/gov-hogan-vote-loeffler-perdue-to-uphold-moderation-and-compromise-in-the-us-senate

Hogan endorses Loeffler and Perdue and loses much of my respect

Also his justification is very lame

I guess he really wants to run for President and get 8% in the New Hampshire primary

Why would Larry Hogan endorse Qelly Loeffler and David "pray for Obama's death" Perdue?

[MATTROSE94]

Warnock apparently compared Benjamin Netanyahu to George Wallace.

After a Senate candidate in Georgia backtracked on his harsh criticism of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians Tuesday, another clip surfaced in which he used controversial language to describe Mideast tensions.


In a 2016 sermon, the Rev. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition to a two-state solution for peace in the region.

He called Netanyahu’s stance “tantamount to saying occupation today, occupation tomorrow, occupation forever,” a line similar to former Alabama Gov. George Wallace’s call for, “segregation now, segregation tomorrow and segregation forever.”


He went on to argue that there could be no democracy in Israel without a two-state solution because of the disenfranchisement of Arab voters.

To be honest with you, even the relatively moderate American Jewish people I know generally hate Bibi.

Am relatively moderate American Jewish person, can confirm: do hate Bibi.

Benjamin Netanyahu is a sick and demented individual and probably one of the worst world leaders currently in office (alongside with Donald Trump, Mohammed bin Salman, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, Jair Bolsonaro, Rodrigo Duerte, Viktor Orbán, and Mateusz Morawiecki).

[MATTROSE94]

Mail ballot requests continue to skew non-white as more come in

Special election mail ballot requests: 1,167,996 (53.6% white/31.2% black/5.3% asian or hispanic/9.1% other)

GE mail ballot requests: 1,782,580 (51.2% white/31.4% black/6.6% asian or hispanic/10.8% other)

So checking back in on this, it looks like the White percentage is indeed going down. It was 53.6% yesterday white, now down to 53.2%. If it were hypothetically to go down by 0.4% each day, then we would get to 51.2% white in 5 more days. The black percentage share also held firm at 31.4%.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    636,821    53.2
Non-Hispanic Black    375,756    31.4
Hispanic    25,561    2.1
Non-Hispanic Asian American    38,465    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,607    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    108,168    9.0

Interesting. As of right now, I am giving Raphael Warnock a 51% chance of winning and David Perdue a 65% chance of winning.

[MATTROSE94]

So checking back in on this, it looks like the White percentage is indeed going down. It was 53.6% yesterday white, now down to 53.2%. If it were hypothetically to go down by 0.4% each day, then we would get to 51.2% white in 5 more days. The black percentage share also held firm at 31.4%.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    636,821    53.2
Non-Hispanic Black    375,756    31.4
Hispanic    25,561    2.1
Non-Hispanic Asian American    38,465    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,607    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    108,168    9.0

Update again on this, the White share is continuing to go down, while the Black share is going up. That has to be a positive trend for the Dems. This is definitely making me more optimistic than I was about the Dem's chances:

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    646,591    53.0
Non-Hispanic Black    385,171    31.6
Hispanic    26,539    2.2
Non-Hispanic Asian American    39,503    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,650    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    110,552    9.1
TOTAL    1,220,685    100.0


The White:Black ratio for absentee requests was 0.613 in the General Election

Currently it is 0.596 and still trending up.

The question is how many more days are there still going to be more requests coming in, and will it keep trending up?

This is suggestive that African American turnout may be just fine for the run-off, and if AA turnout is good while college whites vote relatively more than non-college whites, then Dems do have a legitimate shot at this, despite Biden being President elect. That is also in part due to Trump's atrocious behavior and how he is staying in the news trying to overturn the election, which will probably help Dems among suburban college whites.

I think that Raphael Warnock will pull it through with 51% of the vote, but David “King of the Suburbs” Perdue will narrowly win, maybe only by a 50.01-49.99 margin.

[MATTROSE94]

Do y'all think that Vaccine Distribution could help the Republicans?

Probably not, as most Trump supporters are anti-vaxxers.

[MATTROSE94]

After Xmas when unemployment runs out , the Rs will see the wrath of voters in GA,it's the 15,th and no end in sight for the stalemate on stimulus

Mitch McConnel doesn't care. His main goal is to make Joe Biden a one-term President and pave the way for the Unbeatable Titan Ron DeSantis' victories in 2024 and 2028. If that were to happen, Mitch McConnell would easily stay on as majority leader until 2030 or 2032.

[MATTROSE94]

After Xmas when unemployment runs out , the Rs will see the wrath of voters in GA,it's the 15,th and no end in sight for the stalemate on stimulus

Mitch McConnel doesn't care. His main goal is to make Joe Biden a one-term President and pave the way for the Unbeatable Titan Ron DeSantis' victories in 2024 and 2028. If that were to happen, Mitch McConnell would easily stay on as majority leader until 2030 or 2032.

Every poll we have seen is within the margin of error, perfectly winnable for both parties


Mcconnell isn't gonna make D's a 1 term Prez, the Senate cycle is the same as it was in 2012/ when Obama won a mandate

Raphael Warnock I feel is favored, but David Perdue wins, as he is the King of the Suburbs.

[MATTROSE94]

https://www.newsweek.com/kelly-loeffler-slammed-posing-former-kkk-leader-ahead-georgia-runoff-elections-1554401

Suburban women are going to lap this up, well done Brian Kemp. Hope some KKKelly ads are in the works, and I'm so glad that she beat Collins.

I might be wrong, but Doug Collins seemed to have a fairly good record on civil rights for African Americans when compared to other Southern Republicans.

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/PriscillaWT/status/1344623101036912643

wow, the people of Cobb are really excited to vote for moderate bipartisan hero of the suburbs david perdue

David Perdue might even crack 60% in Cobb County due to the upswell in voters in this picture!

/s

[MATTROSE94]

What's going to be really annoying is if one side wins both of these, they're going to act like they have a mandate to either fully persue Biden's agenda or entirely block Biden's agenda, even though basically half of the people who voted voted against their party.

A split verdict would be hilarious; it would be interesting to see how the parties react, and it would just be a crazy end to a crazy election cycle.

If the verdict is split, then Susan Collins winning would have been a godsend. Had she lost, Republicans would have needed to win both Georgia races, now they only need one.

Also the Democrats nominating Cal Cunningham over Jeff Jackson or Anthony Fox in North Carolina would have amounted to be a godsend for the Republicans as well.

[MATTROSE94]

On a scale of 1-10, how laughable is the bold prediction I'm about to make?

Both dems win, but Ossoff overperforms Warnock.

lol. That ain’t happening. David Perdue is the undisputed king of the Atlanta, Savanna, Augusta, and Macon suburbs and will curb stomp Jon Ossoff by 10%. Raphael Warnock, on the other hand, will defeat weak candidate Qelly LOLfeller by 6%.

/s

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1346598200635961345?s=19

God help us if these are true. My god.

Do these count mail in voters or no?

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346624596804513797?s=20

I am still predicting a split outcome as well.

[MATTROSE94]

PRESIDENT PRO TEMPORE PAT LEAHY
SENATE BUDGET CHAIRMAN BERNIE SANDERS
VERMONT POWAAAAAA

Phil Scott will obliterate Pat Leahy in 2022, so he won't be President Pro Tempore for long.

[MATTROSE94]

Immigratiom reform, please?!

There aren't any votes for that. Joe Biden will be able to appoint his cabinet, pass a massive COVID stimulus bill with income replacement, implement a 100-day lockdown to finally defeat COVID, forgive student loan debt, and appoint judges however if these results turn out in favor of the Democrats. The Democrats are beyond screwed in 2022 however and 2024 is a safe Republican year.

[MATTROSE94]

So when will the crook concede to Ossoff...

About that:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1347344035564969986

I now have more respect for Loeffler than Perdue, which is something else I wouldn't have predicted as an outcome.

What happens if David Perdue refuses to concede by January 20th?

[MATTROSE94]

So when will the crook concede to Ossoff...

About that:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1347344035564969986

I now have more respect for Loeffler than Perdue, which is something else I wouldn't have predicted as an outcome.

What happens if David Perdue refuses to concede by January 20th?

His seat is vacant so nothing. Harris will just swear Ossoff in if she has to.

Oh ok.

[MATTROSE94]

The King of the Suburbs strikes again!

David Perdue still did overperform in the suburbs to a point, though the King of the Suburbs title now goes to either John Cornyn and Thom Tillis.

[MATTROSE94]

What are the odds the 2022 midterm has less turnout than the 2021 runoff?

Will Warnock win by more in 2022?

Raphael Warnock probably wins 52-48 against Doug Collins in 2022 and probably at least 55% in all elections he runs in afterwards.