Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[MATTROSE94]

Do y'all think that Vaccine Distribution could help the Republicans?

Probably not, as most Trump supporters are anti-vaxxers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After Xmas when unemployment runs out , the Rs will see the wrath of voters in GA,it's the 15,th and no end in sight for the stalemate on stimulus

[Tender Branson]

With more mail ballot requests, the racial gap seems to be narrowing (W+21 now, was W+20 in the General). It was W+26 a week ago.

But the runoff requests still skew much older (49% over 65) than the requests in the General (41% older than 65).

Also, early voting will start tomorrow.

[MATTROSE94]

After Xmas when unemployment runs out , the Rs will see the wrath of voters in GA,it's the 15,th and no end in sight for the stalemate on stimulus

Mitch McConnel doesn't care. His main goal is to make Joe Biden a one-term President and pave the way for the Unbeatable Titan Ron DeSantis' victories in 2024 and 2028. If that were to happen, Mitch McConnell would easily stay on as majority leader until 2030 or 2032.

[Tender Branson]

Assuming both Warnock & Ossoff win by about 10% each (lol) and the results are in on Jan. 5th, is there a chance they are already sworn in on Jan 6th to take part in the counting of the Electoral Votes that day ?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After Xmas when unemployment runs out , the Rs will see the wrath of voters in GA,it's the 15,th and no end in sight for the stalemate on stimulus

Mitch McConnel doesn't care. His main goal is to make Joe Biden a one-term President and pave the way for the Unbeatable Titan Ron DeSantis' victories in 2024 and 2028. If that were to happen, Mitch McConnell would easily stay on as majority leader until 2030 or 2032.

Every poll we have seen is within the margin of error, perfectly winnable for both parties


Mcconnell isn't gonna make D's a 1 term Prez, the Senate cycle is the same as it was in 2012/ when Obama won a mandate

[MATTROSE94]

After Xmas when unemployment runs out , the Rs will see the wrath of voters in GA,it's the 15,th and no end in sight for the stalemate on stimulus

Mitch McConnel doesn't care. His main goal is to make Joe Biden a one-term President and pave the way for the Unbeatable Titan Ron DeSantis' victories in 2024 and 2028. If that were to happen, Mitch McConnell would easily stay on as majority leader until 2030 or 2032.

Every poll we have seen is within the margin of error, perfectly winnable for both parties


Mcconnell isn't gonna make D's a 1 term Prez, the Senate cycle is the same as it was in 2012/ when Obama won a mandate

Raphael Warnock I feel is favored, but David Perdue wins, as he is the King of the Suburbs.

[wbrocks67]

Mail ballot requests continue to skew non-white as more come in

Special election mail ballot requests: 1,167,996 (53.6% white/31.2% black/5.3% asian or hispanic/9.1% other)

GE mail ballot requests: 1,782,580 (51.2% white/31.4% black/6.6% asian or hispanic/10.8% other)

Yeah, in just a few days, White has now gone from 53.6% to 53.0% and Black from 31.2% to 31.6%.

[brucejoel99]

Assuming both Warnock & Ossoff win by about 10% each (lol) and the results are in on Jan. 5th, is there a chance they are already sworn in on Jan 6th to take part in the counting of the Electoral Votes that day ?

There's literally 0 chance of them being seated anytime on Jan. 6th. Votes have to actually finished being counted & results have to actually be certified (& presumably, pointless recounts will be requested for the hell of it, pushing back final certification even further). Late Jan./early Feb. is a better estimate of their potential seating.

[GALeftist]

https://www.newsweek.com/kelly-loeffler-slammed-posing-former-kkk-leader-ahead-georgia-runoff-elections-1554401

Suburban women are going to lap this up, well done Brian Kemp. Hope some KKKelly ads are in the works, and I'm so glad that she beat Collins.

[WD]

https://www.newsweek.com/kelly-loeffler-slammed-posing-former-kkk-leader-ahead-georgia-runoff-elections-1554401

Suburban women are going to lap this up, well done Brian Kemp. Hope some KKKelly ads are in the works, and I'm so glad that she beat Collins.

More bad choices from Weak Candidate Kelly Loeffler.

Rating change:

Likely D -> Safe D

[Florida Man for Crime]

Mail ballot requests continue to skew non-white as more come in

Special election mail ballot requests: 1,167,996 (53.6% white/31.2% black/5.3% asian or hispanic/9.1% other)

GE mail ballot requests: 1,782,580 (51.2% white/31.4% black/6.6% asian or hispanic/10.8% other)

Yeah, in just a few days, White has now gone from 53.6% to 53.0% and Black from 31.2% to 31.6%.

It seems like the trend may be starting to slow down, it only went down from 53.0% to 52.9% white today with not many more requests reported. However, maybe that is a weekend reporting effect, perhaps a number of counties don't report as much on the weekend?:

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    648,865    52.9
Non-Hispanic Black    388,301    31.6
Hispanic    26,738    2.2
Non-Hispanic Asian American    39,727    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,663    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    111,165    9.1
TOTAL    1,227,285    100.0

[brucejoel99]

https://www.newsweek.com/kelly-loeffler-slammed-posing-former-kkk-leader-ahead-georgia-runoff-elections-1554401

Suburban women are going to lap this up, well done Brian Kemp. Hope some KKKelly ads are in the works, and I'm so glad that she beat Collins.

Kelly "there isn't a racist bone in my body" Loeffler.

[Rookie Yinzer]

However, maybe that is a weekend reporting effect, perhaps a number of counties don't report as much on the weekend?

Correct.

[QAnonKelly]

What is her long term plan here? Either she loses now or in two years. I can’t imagine she’s gonna be welcomed back with open arms to the Atlanta finance community. Seems like she’s wasted a lot of personal capital for a job she’s gonna have for 3 years at most.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is everyone assuming Loeffler would lose a Biden midterm?

[walleye26]

Remember how Loeffler was supposed to be the moderate one who could appeal to suburban women? Pepperidge Farms remembers.

[GALeftist]

Why is everyone assuming Loeffler would lose a Biden midterm?

Typically midterms don't really have a huge effect on Georgia since everyone has picked their team. Perdue in 2014 did about as well (in fact a tad worse) than Romney did in 2012, and obviously Biden did better in 2020 than Abrams in 2018. If you assume Georgia will continue trending left and that the election will be very close in 2020 then it's reasonable to conclude that Loeffler is a modest underdog in 2022 or at least is in a tossup race.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Why is everyone assuming Loeffler would lose a Biden midterm?

Because Carter/Nunn outperformed the 2010 candidates including flipping Henry County when Obama was immensely unpopular in GA and the lowest midterm turnout in 80 years.

Not to mention Abrams will probably be running in a rematch with Kemp in what will undoubtedly be the most expensive Governor's race ever.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Typically midterms don't really have a huge effect on Georgia

There is only really a single case that really can be used to support your point where there were competitive elections in GA in a midterm, and that is 2014.

The last previous case where there were competitive-ish elections in a midterm in GA was probably 2002 (certainly not 2010 or 2006), and I think Max Cleland would probably beg to differ that the midterm didn't have much of an effect on him.

[brucejoel99]

Typically midterms don't really have a huge effect on Georgia

There is only really a single case that really can be used to support your point where there were competitive elections in GA in a midterm, and that is 2014.

The last previous case where there were competitive-ish elections in a midterm in GA was probably 2002 (certainly not 2010 or 2006), and I think Max Cleland would probably beg to differ that the midterm didn't have much of an effect on him.

I would beg to differ with your wording's implication that the 2018 midterms didn't see a competitive-ish election in GA

[Florida Man for Crime]

Typically midterms don't really have a huge effect on Georgia

There is only really a single case that really can be used to support your point where there were competitive elections in GA in a midterm, and that is 2014.

The last previous case where there were competitive-ish elections in a midterm in GA was probably 2002 (certainly not 2010 or 2006), and I think Max Cleland would probably beg to differ that the midterm didn't have much of an effect on him.

I would beg to differ with your wording's implication that the 2018 midterms didn't see a competitive-ish election in GA

2018 was competitive, and I didn't mean to suggest that it was not, but it can't really be used to argue that there is no difference in comparison to the previous Presidential election. Abrams lost by just a bit more than 1%, whereas Clinton lost GA by a bit more than 5%. A 4 point improvement in the margin, to me, seems to indicate the out of power party doing better in a midterm, and hence indicates midterms in GA having a significant effect. If, by contrast, it had been a Hillary Clinton midterm, I doubt GA-GOV 2018 would have been that close, I would have expected it to be more similar to 2014.

[brucejoel99]

Typically midterms don't really have a huge effect on Georgia

There is only really a single case that really can be used to support your point where there were competitive elections in GA in a midterm, and that is 2014.

The last previous case where there were competitive-ish elections in a midterm in GA was probably 2002 (certainly not 2010 or 2006), and I think Max Cleland would probably beg to differ that the midterm didn't have much of an effect on him.

I would beg to differ with your wording's implication that the 2018 midterms didn't see a competitive-ish election in GA

2018 was competitive, and I didn't mean to suggest that it was not, but it can't really be used to argue that there is no difference in comparison to the previous Presidential election. Abrams lost by just a bit more than 1%, whereas Clinton lost GA by a bit more than 5%. A 4 point improvement in the margin, to me, seems to indicate the out of power party doing better in a midterm, and hence indicates midterms in GA having a significant effect. If, by contrast, it had been a Hillary Clinton midterm, I doubt GA-GOV 2018 would have been that close, I would have expected it to be more similar to 2014.

Lol yeah, I figured that's what you were getting at. I was just trying to be pedantic (in a tongue-in-cheek way) about "there is only really a single case... where there were competitive elections in GA in a midterm, and that is 2014," hence the ... sorry for any miscommunication.

[GALeftist]

Typically midterms don't really have a huge effect on Georgia

There is only really a single case that really can be used to support your point where there were competitive elections in GA in a midterm, and that is 2014.

The last previous case where there were competitive-ish elections in a midterm in GA was probably 2002 (certainly not 2010 or 2006), and I think Max Cleland would probably beg to differ that the midterm didn't have much of an effect on him.

I would beg to differ with your wording's implication that the 2018 midterms didn't see a competitive-ish election in GA

2018 was competitive, and I didn't mean to suggest that it was not, but it can't really be used to argue that there is no difference in comparison to the previous Presidential election. Abrams lost by just a bit more than 1%, whereas Clinton lost GA by a bit more than 5%. A 4 point improvement in the margin, to me, seems to indicate the out of power party doing better in a midterm, and hence indicates midterms in GA having a significant effect. If, by contrast, it had been a Hillary Clinton midterm, I doubt GA-GOV 2018 would have been that close, I would have expected it to be more similar to 2014.

Well, I'm not saying that midterms don't have an effect on the margins, but the fact is that since 2012 each successive election has gotten more blue despite varying midterm dynamics. The reason I brought up 2018 was because in some states the Republicans did quite a bit better in 2020 than in 2018, but the Democrats still improved in Georgia from 2018 to 2020.

[QAnonKelly]

Mike Murphy from Hacks on Tap says he thinks Perdue is being kept off the trail because of his comedy routine about Harris’s name. I wonder how much of it is that and how much of it is that they’re ignoring Ossoff over Warnock. It’s probably a combination of the two.