Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Once the election results are made official on December 3rd, I'll be making some maps and looking into some of the precinct data.

[Gass3268]

Excited that the election results will be certified and official numbers released on Monday. I have been prepping some data for a series that will look at recent election results (2018 Senate, 2018 Governor) from a bunch of different angles:

- Regional analysis based on my self defined regions.
- 250 (maybe more depending on interest) largest communities (cities and villages) in Wisconsin, plus their swings (maybe intrastate trends).
- Hopefully both contests by State Senate and Assembly districts. Miles might beat me to this.
- Ethnic results based on a pre-set sample of townships/villages/cities (Protestant Germans, Catholic Germans, Polish, Norwegians, Dutch, Belgians, and Swedish).
- Racial results based on a pre-set sample of precincts/wards (Native Americans, African Americans, and Hispanic Americans).
- Place-type analysis based on a pre-set sample (townships, villages, 1st class cities, 2nd class cities, 3rd class cities, and 4th class cities).
- Doing a county by county review comparing the Governor and Senate race to the prior contests (2014 and 2012) along with the 2016 Presidential contest.    

I'm hoping to have some maps invovled here to visualize and explain some of this data. Also I'm always open to look into requests or suggestions on what you'd like to see first.

[Gass3268]

More voter suppression in Wisconsin:

https://twitter.com/rvetterkind/status/1068586093870792704

[Gass3268]

How long is the current in-person early voting period for Wisconsin? Is it different per county?

I really think we need to start increasing the vote requirements for lame duck sessions. Require 2/3 majority to pass things until the new legislature is seated, or seat new members immediately. What is being proposed here isn't really that bad, but it still speaks to the problem of the GOP changing the rules every time they feel their power is threatened.

Even with these shenanigans aside, it really doesn't make sense to give lawmakers who are on their way out so much power. They have no incentive to act in the people's interest, and they frequently prove that.

Funny enough, Florida actually does this the right way in that there is no lame duck period for the legislature.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1068634529752076289?s=21

[Gass3268]

According to Jay Schroeder, the Republican who lost the Secretary of State race, a "State Electoral College" is on the cards, too, because Madison and Milwaukee "voted" for the rest of the state this time. It's on his Facebook page. The WI GOP is truly a broken record - I think we have the most corrupt and greedy GOP establishment.

This is horrific and it should never happen, but this gives me another fun idea for a post.

[Gass3268]

Sounds like they removed the two week early vote restriction from the bill about moving the Presidential primary to the bill the limits Governor/AG authority on lawsuits. The thought is the Republicans don't have the vote to move the primary up, but has the vote on the lawsuit limitations.

[Gass3268]

2020 presidential primary date did not get a vote in committee. Looks like it failed.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1069939275301642240

[Gass3268]

Dane County Clerk Scott McDonnell is the hero in defeating this proposal. He was able to organize 64 of the 72 county clerks across the state to come out against the bill including those in Ozaukee and Waukesha.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1069741503558443008

[Gass3268]

Wow, this is worse than I thought:

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1070018660347965440

[Gass3268]

Just came across this visualization of the gerrymander of the WI Assembly. Stunningly effective.

https://twitter.com/bcburden/status/1069773072587206656

Yep, and it's gonna get worse next cycle as the Milwaukee portion of the delegation would happily Russ Carnahan the rest of the caucus to get theirs, even if the Dems as a whole continue to get decimated.

No they aren't. If anything a fair map would greatly increase the power and representation of Milwaukee County by killing the baconmanders that expend out into Ozaukee and Waukesha.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/lame-duck-wisconsin-republicans-vote-weaken-incoming-democratic-governor-attorney-n944001

the bill passed 17-16.

I feel a bit sorry for Wisconsin. Like in NC, the GOP-controlled legislative passes bills with provisions which where declared illegal for the n-th time. Just keep trying, maybe the SC will turn the previous ruling upside down.

The 2 most questionable measures( extra primary/elections for judical elections, stripping the AG from making ligitations) have been skipped, yet:
- disempowerment of the Governor in one of the core competencies(negotiating as head-of-government, which is the definition of a Governor)
- Executive Boards as parallel governments established
- Voting rights in peril and limited (EV, oversight of the executive disbanded)
- Original law bill published minutes before
- Own legistlative rules of the senate disregarded (a law must be passed 3 times on different sessions)

I do not know about how american/wisconsonite judges consider this legal, yet all these points are in the realm of constitutional law, but the according processes changing the constitution with amendments etc has been disregarded. The early voting provisions are repeatedly struck down, and the law itself has not been passed appropiately to their own legislative procedures.

Thus all bills of the #WIPowerGrab should be null and void. But who knows what the WISC does this, as there are clearly two sets of law: one for the WI GOP, and a stricter one for the rest of the state's citizens.

Conservatives have a one seat majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but if liberals can hold their open seat this year and knock off the conservative incumbent in 2020, they could take the majority and start hacking away at a lot of the crap that has taken place under the Walker regime.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/lame-duck-wisconsin-republicans-vote-weaken-incoming-democratic-governor-attorney-n944001

the bill passed 17-16.

I feel a bit sorry for Wisconsin. Like in NC, the GOP-controlled legislative passes bills with provisions which where declared illegal for the n-th time. Just keep trying, maybe the SC will turn the previous ruling upside down.

The 2 most questionable measures( extra primary/elections for judical elections, stripping the AG from making ligitations) have been skipped, yet:
- disempowerment of the Governor in one of the core competencies(negotiating as head-of-government, which is the definition of a Governor)
- Executive Boards as parallel governments established
- Voting rights in peril and limited (EV, oversight of the executive disbanded)
- Original law bill published minutes before
- Own legistlative rules of the senate disregarded (a law must be passed 3 times on different sessions)

I do not know about how american/wisconsonite judges consider this legal, yet all these points are in the realm of constitutional law, but the according processes changing the constitution with amendments etc has been disregarded. The early voting provisions are repeatedly struck down, and the law itself has not been passed appropiately to their own legislative procedures.

Thus all bills of the #WIPowerGrab should be null and void. But who knows what the WISC does this, as there are clearly two sets of law: one for the WI GOP, and a stricter one for the rest of the state's citizens.

Conservatives have a one seat majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but if liberals can hold their open seat this year and knock off the conservative incumbent in 2020, they could take the majority and start hacking away at a lot of the crap that has taken place under the Walker regime.

Yep, the SC takes priority now to stop the WIGOP. It could also get us a non-partisan map for the 2022!

Evers veto pen "should" be enough there. Also given how off-year and special elections have looked in Wisconsin, I feel pretty good about the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

[Gass3268]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/lame-duck-wisconsin-republicans-vote-weaken-incoming-democratic-governor-attorney-n944001

the bill passed 17-16.

I feel a bit sorry for Wisconsin. Like in NC, the GOP-controlled legislative passes bills with provisions which where declared illegal for the n-th time. Just keep trying, maybe the SC will turn the previous ruling upside down.

The 2 most questionable measures( extra primary/elections for judical elections, stripping the AG from making ligitations) have been skipped, yet:
- disempowerment of the Governor in one of the core competencies(negotiating as head-of-government, which is the definition of a Governor)
- Executive Boards as parallel governments established
- Voting rights in peril and limited (EV, oversight of the executive disbanded)
- Original law bill published minutes before
- Own legistlative rules of the senate disregarded (a law must be passed 3 times on different sessions)

I do not know about how american/wisconsonite judges consider this legal, yet all these points are in the realm of constitutional law, but the according processes changing the constitution with amendments etc has been disregarded. The early voting provisions are repeatedly struck down, and the law itself has not been passed appropiately to their own legislative procedures.

Thus all bills of the #WIPowerGrab should be null and void. But who knows what the WISC does this, as there are clearly two sets of law: one for the WI GOP, and a stricter one for the rest of the state's citizens.

Conservatives have a one seat majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but if liberals can hold their open seat this year and knock off the conservative incumbent in 2020, they could take the majority and start hacking away at a lot of the crap that has taken place under the Walker regime.

Yep, the SC takes priority now to stop the WIGOP. It could also get us a non-partisan map for the 2022!

Evers veto pen "should" be enough there. Also given how off-year and special elections have looked in Wisconsin, I feel pretty good about the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Yeah, he can still veto, but a court drawn map would likely be fairer, and give us a tossup district in the South of WI.

If I were to give a rating to the WISC, I would say tilt/lean D.

Evers' veto would result in a court drawn map, just from a Federal Judge (Obama appointee) rather than the State Supreme Court.

[Gass3268]

So which of these power grabs will be struck down? I'm pretty sure the AG stuff at least is unconstitutional.

It's up to the 4-3 conservative Supreme Court until at least 2020.

[Gass3268]

So which of these power grabs will be struck down? I'm pretty sure the AG stuff at least is unconstitutional.

It's up to the 4-3 conservative Supreme Court until at least 2020.

MI is 3-1-3 right?

No idea. I know there were two conservative seats up this years and the liberals took one.

[Gass3268]

So, early voting as been limited too, right? I thought somebody said there wasn't enough votes for it.

Nope that happened, even though it was recently reinstated via a court order just a couple years ago.

[Gass3268]

Another thing I forgot and will be important to remember going forward is that Wisconsin has one of the most powerful gubernatorial line item veto powers in the country. The courts have upheld that even cutting out letters to make new words and sentences is legit.

[Gass3268]

Another thing I forgot and will be important to remember going forward is that Wisconsin has one of the most powerful gubernatorial line item veto powers in the country. The courts have upheld that even cutting out letters to make new words and sentences is legit.

LOL

That seems incredibly sketchy, tbh. If a bill was sufficiently long enough, couldn't you end up crafting entire provisions unrelated to the original purpose? Like turn a budget into a voter ID repeal?

Looks like they have amendend the consitution that they can't get rid of single letters or combine sentances. But they can still get rid of numbers and words in a single sentence.

Tommy Thompson was notorious using it to cross out letters and combing sentences. Jim Doyle used selective deletion to transform "a 272-word section of the Legislature's budget into a 20-word sentence that took $427 million from the transportation budget and gave it to public schools."

[Gass3268]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




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[Gass3268]

Senate Race By Assembly District




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[Gass3268]

So Baldwin won a majority of districts?

Yup, I think it was 55. Evers only won 36 and didn't even win 2 (14 and 96) that the Democratic Assembly candidate won and won 2 (49 and 51) were the Democratic Assembly candidate lost.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, if people from both parties can’t at least agree that the moves of the WI GOP, MI GOP, and NC GOP are out of line and blatantly self-serving attempts to avoid the will of the people, we’re never going to get anywhere. Of course, I’m sure many usual suspects will dodge the question by bringing up Menendez or someone from the Illinois Democratic Party to “prove” that “the Democrats are just as bad/way worse!!!” I get that we’re polarized, but we’re all screwed if we can’t acknowledge when our own party is giving the middle finger to their constituents to consolidate power.

The moves are heralded by the conservatives in the burbs here right now. It's to stop Evers "from bending us over and bleeding us dry" which would somehow happen with a Republican legislature? There's also the #ResistEvers meme right now going around heavily too.

Even though it was Evers ability to break the complete stranglehold in the burbs (Milwaukee, Ozaukee and Waukesha) as to why Walker lost.

[Gass3268]

I'm going to post the results by the State Senate districts, if a mod want's to resize them after I post them (I never can do it right), I would greatly appreciate that.

[Gass3268]

Governor's Race By Senate District: