Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

This could maybe be a late gamechanger:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1058384129367121921

[Gass3268]

This could maybe be a late gamechanger:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1058384129367121921

That story is gross.... Yikes. Yeah, a solid case for a 'November' surprise.

I'll hear out Walker's side of the story, but this seems much worse than what they were accusing Evers of doing (when he was just following the laws and regulations required).

[Gass3268]

Is the Wisconsin 6th Congressional District really going to be competitive this years? Since when?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/wisconsin/6/#deluxe

http://www.wuwm.com/post/analysis-why-wisconsins-6th-congressional-race-so-competitive#stream/0

My guess is Ozaukee County is trending D perhaps?

I think it's a mix of that plus you have some potential Democratic strength in Columbia County and Winnebago County. The key will be along the lakeshore. Can Kohl do well enough in Sheboygan County and probably win Manitowoc County to make up for Fond du Lac and Green Lake Counties.

[Gass3268]

I haven't really kept up with the Wisc Gov race (b/c early I assumed Walker was going to lose- but seems like things have changed in the race).  Is there a general consensus by those in Wisc regarding who will likely win?

I really don't think there is a general consensus. Maybe slight Evers because Walker hasn't lead in a non-Marquette poll.

My head says Evers, but my gut says Walker.

[Gass3268]

Not shocking that the Republicans are ending in Waukesha and Democrats in Madison.

https://twitter.com/RoseSchmidtTV/status/1059509326585520128

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

For those of you who have hofoid on ignore, here are some of the early vote numbers as they compare to 2016. The WOW counties are about where you'd expect them to be, other than Washington looking a bit low. Dane County is smidge lower than I would like, but Madison is already at 4x where they were it was at in 2014 and I don't doubt that turnout will be big there tomorrow. To me the main story is Milwaukee County being compareable to Waukesha County. Milwaukee County dropoffs from Presidential elections to off year elections are well documented, if this holds into tomorrow, that could change and be crucial

[Gass3268]

If this news would have broke last week...

https://twitter.com/paulwsj/status/1059794377051201543

[Gass3268]

#60 at my polling place at 8:00 in the morning! There were people steadily coming in as I voted too. Turnout is through the roof in my precinct in Madison.

My brother's fiancée voted in a downtown Madison, Wisconsin precinct (off-campus student housing) at 7:05. She was already voter #143.

[Gass3268]

Voter #171 in Reedsburg precinct 4 at 7:45am. All voters in Reedsburg vote at City Hall, and the room was PACKED. The line was at least 30-40 long and all 20 voting booths were full. At least 25 people entered while I waited.

We have a competitive Assembly race, State Senate race, and of course the statewides. First time I've voted there in a general but man... it was hopping.

We need Reedsburg to go back to Obama margins for Dems to have a chance at picking up the AD and the SD!

[Gass3268]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Dane County is voting at 2016 levels, about 7-10 points better than 2014. The City of Madison is voting 4 points better than 2016. This is comparing turnout in both years at 11 am.

[Gass3268]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Dane County is voting at 2016 levels, about 7-10 points better than 2014. The City of Madison is voting 4 points better than 2016. This is comparing turnout in both years at 11 am.

Yep!

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1059889404188221441

You want my guess? This is happening all over the state.

[Gass3268]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

Source?

[Gass3268]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

Source?

It's actually 50 percent as of 2 P.M.

https://twitter.com/HopeKirwan/status/1059906318331531274

Holy moly

I just saw that Madison as already surpassed 2014.

[Gass3268]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

Even still, we don't know what %'s Walker will get from WOW considering what Trump got and what poling has suggested.

[Gass3268]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Yup, they need to keep Walker in the low 60's in Ozaukee, high 60's in Waukesha and low 70's in Washington. Vukmir will probably underperform Walker in all and it wouldn't shock me if she preforms especially poorly in Ozaukee. I can see that as a place where once Republican women, who might still vote for Walker, would vote for Baldwin to keep Trump in check.

[Gass3268]

Without equivalent #s from WOW, don't get too excited.

I asked the poll workers in my precinct how turnout was today and they said "VERY good". I'm more interested to see if Dems are peeling off some voters in WOW. Evers needs to keep Walker under 70 in Waukesha to win.

Yup, they need to keep Walker in the low 60's in Ozaukee, high 60's in Waukesha and low 70's in Washington. Vukmir will probably underperform Walker in all and it wouldn't shock me if she preforms especially poorly in Ozaukee. I can see that as a place where once Republican women, who might still vote for Walker, would vote for Baldwin to keep Trump in check.

In theory, Vukmir should do well in these areas since that's where she's from, but with the way she has run I don't think she'll do too good. I'm thinking McCain numbers for her there.

Agreed, I think she went overboard trying to get folks who supported Nicholson and really forfetied the center of the field to Baldwin. Unlike Walker, who as always, runs to the center during this campaigns.

[Gass3268]

How is the assembly and senate looking?

As of now: R+1 in the Senate, D+1 in the Assembly.

[Gass3268]

Most of the City of Madison and parts of the urban core in MKE. If Evers can keep the margins he has in the rest of the state, he's got the governorship.

What do you mean by the first part? Those are the Dem areas left or they’re all in?

Edited, yeah. They're missing.

I've read on twitter that all of the Milwaukee absentees have yet to be counted.

[Gass3268]

100% of the City of Green Bay is still left to report.

This isn't a huge Democratic city, but Evers will win there by a decent amount.

[Gass3268]

Looks like most of Stevens Point is still out.

[Gass3268]

Almost all of La Crosse County is out.

[Gass3268]

I've noticed that NBC has Evers winning Pierce County in the NW.

[Gass3268]

NBC using Edison is a little bit further than NYT. They have Evers up .3% with  ~6,000 margin.

[Gass3268]

City of Portage is what is left in Columbia County. Democrats will win there.

[Gass3268]

City of Portage is what is left in Columbia County. Democrats will win there.

Source?

I went to what they are reporting directly from their election website.