Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Baldwin is up 53-42

[Gass3268]

Like I said, it's going to have Walker leading. Mark my words!

Alright, Wisconsinite, you've got some explaining to do.

Anyway, inb4 people who hate Walker now think Marquette is the gold standard again, and people who love Walker think it's biased toward the Democrats.

I knew after looking at the last poll that they got a very conservative sample from the City of Milwaukee, if that was adjusted it looked closer to this.

[Gass3268]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

Previous poll was a screen of 2014/2016 voters, which is why it yielded such an odd result. You can go back to the thread, I believe it was talked about a lot.

I said that and I was wrong, but it’s still a super tight screen. You have to be 100% certain you are going vote in November. Even being 95% sure won’t cut it.

[Gass3268]

Walker is launching more attack ads against Evers, this time accusing him of not firing a teacher for having a physical altercation with a student.

http://www.therepublic.com/2018/09/20/wi-election-2018-governor-wisconsin-6/

That’s the only attack line that Walker has been using since Evers won in August. Polling clearly shows it isn’t working.

[Gass3268]

I really hate this part of politics. It can get so vicious at times, and usually with attacks that completely lack context that would make them significantly less attack-worthy if provided. It's all just so shameless. Just throw anything at them, even if it's blatantly false or irrelevant, and see if it sticks.

Evers has done a pretty good job at defending himself from these attacks. Explaining he had to follow the law as written and that he tried to get the law changed, all before pivoting to another issue like health care or Scottholes.

[Gass3268]

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

[Gass3268]

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

WI might surprise more than believed in November. We'll see.

I really hope Democrats can flip at least one chamber of the legislature if they win the Govs office. It's critical because Wisconsin Republicans are exactly the type to use their remaining power in the legislature to refer a constitutional amendment to the ballot in 2020 to take away the Gov's ability to veto new maps. I wouldn't put it past them to try and end same-day voter registration too (Walker already looked into it but deemed it to expensive). They need to pass the amendment by a majority vote in two back-to-back sessions to get it on the ballot, which means if they lose the state Senate this cycle, they can't do it in time.

Never underestimate what corrupt, partisan lawmakers will do when backed into a corner and threatened with the loss of power they have come to take for granted. Pennsylvania Republicans seriously entertained impeaching every Democrat on the state Supreme Court for overturning the Congressional map, and they already made moves to try and take away Democrats' influence in redistricting just like I mused about above. I'm not 100% the WIGOP will try this, but we're bound to see them try this in a couple states if the losses are bad. They are not going to go quietly.

I don't think the state is dumb enough to go along with that. They just rejected an obvious power grab to eliminate the Treasurer position.

[Gass3268]

Working on some different Wisconsin stuff, but here is a map that averages the total votes (not %'s) of every election from 2008 on. Even though Democrats have only won 5 (08 Pres, 10 SoS, 12 Pres & 12 Sen) of the last 16, because a few of those ended up being high turnout wins, the results ended up being only 49.41-48.35 in favor of the Republicans with only a 26,351 vote differential. So this is pretty close to what an even map would look like.



I also took a look at what counties average margins were the closest to the statewide margin as an attempt to see which ones best predicted the state over the past 10 years. Here were the top-10 and their difference from the statewide average:

1. Door (0.49% more Republican)
2. Grant (1.39% more Democratic)
3. Adams (1.69% more Republican)
4. Lafayette (1.89% more Democratic)
5. Richland (2.19% more Democratic)
6. Dunn (2.16% more Republican)
7. Kenosha (3.47% more Democratic)
8. Jackson (3.53% more Democratic)
9. Trempealeau (3.64% more Democratic)
10. Columbia (3.66% more Democratic)

Not shocking, but Door County is almost the prefect swing county and quite possibly the most important county to observe on election night.

[Gass3268]

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:

https://twitter.com/McCormickJohn/status/1044650149048397825

[Gass3268]

There goes my thread

[Gass3268]

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Brooks is currently the Asisstant Majority Leader in the Assembly. He's from AD-60 in Ozaukee/Washington County where Trump won by about 40 points in 2016.

Source

[Gass3268]

What kind of coattails would we need to flip at least one of the legislative bodies in this state? Are Dem booms only concentrated in Milwaukee or Madison?

I don't know why you keep bringing up this "Dems are concentrated in..." - Just look at the presidential numbers and that will give you a good idea of where Democrats can look for seats, which as useful as it is, still doesn't even include reach targets like the special elections they won:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1077872047

District 5 - Vukmir's old seat: 47.71 - 46.69 Trump seat -- Open seat
District 17: 51 - 43 Trump seat, but 56 - 42 Obama seat -- Big swing, Dems may have a shot
District 19: 50 - 43 Trump, 49 - 49 Obama/Romney


There are some other big Trump seats that were only marginal Romney seats, so depending on how you think the wave will go, and the dynamics of those seats, Democrats could pull a rabbit out of the hat in one of them. If you don't think so, keep in mind that the only reason Democrats are even competitive in the state Senate this cycle is because they pulled a rabbit out of the hat twice in big Trump / marginal Romney seats.

They also have to defend SD-01, which scares me a little bit. I'd put it as a Toss Up. Personally I feel pretty confident about SD-17, so Lean D, Vukmir might have coattails in SD-05 so I'd probably put that at Lean R, SD-19 feels like a toss up. Also depending on how much of a rural/small town resurgence there is, SD-23 could surprise, probably Likely R.

[Gass3268]

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Brooks is currently the Asisstant Majority Leader in the Assembly. He's from AD-60 in Ozaukee/Washington County where Trump won by about 40 points in 2016.

Source

Walker is calling for his resignation.

https://twitter.com/GovWalker/status/1044995252040470529

[Gass3268]

This is already going to be a more Republican poll than the last one just based on the partisan makeup. Also part was done during the Kavanaugh confirmations and part was done after. Would be interesting to get a spilt.

[Gass3268]

Baldwin's numbers barely changed, up 10.

[Gass3268]

AG race tightened too. Schimel only up 4 now, down 3 from September.

[Gass3268]

Actually... let's review in a bit more detail.

Sample by party

Now GOP +3
Sept Dem +1
(4 pt GOP shift)

Now Walker 47, Evers 46
Sept Walker 44, Evers 49
(6 point GOP shift)

Now Baldwin 53, Vukmir 43
Sept Baldwin 53, Vukmir 42
(1 point GOP shift)

Now Shimel 47, Kaul 44
Was Shimel 48, Kaul 41
(4 point Dem shift)


A narrative suggesting that only Walker appears to be truly tied to a partisan anchor... both Vukmir and Shimel are underperforming the party spread. And this was in the field during the peak Kavanaugh hearing, so that may be boosting GOP turnout response rates vis-a-vis September.

I hope that Franklin shows us the responses as they were out in the field. I imagine Republicans did better around 10/3 than they did around 10/7.

He did the same thing when they were in the field during the Access Hollywood tape.

[Gass3268]

Looking at some of the numbers in the MU poll and it really tells you the story of what's going on.

1. Vukmir has really bad favorability numbers. She's currently sitting at -13. Baldwin is at +7, which makes her the most popular candidate running. Walker is at -1 and Evers is at +3.

2. Baldwin is winning or tied in every major gender/race/education group, except white non-college educated men where is losing by 20 points. Evers however is only up with white college educated women and nonwhites. The biggest difference is white non-college educated women. Baldwin is winning that group by 17 points while Walker is winning that same group by 2 points.

3. One final interesting point looking at the crosstabs is party loyalty. Baldwin is currently getting 12% of self-declared Republicans while only losing 1% of the Democrats. Everson on the other hand is only getting 5% of self-declared Republicans and is losing an equal amount of Democrats, 5%.

To me the main take away is the non-college educated white women. Evers wins if he can get closer to Baldwin's numbers there.

[Gass3268]

NBC/Marist is going to release a Wisconsin poll at 5pm. Going to get a comparison.

Also remember, Wisconsin is one of the states where we had the issue of pollsters not weighing for education. NBC/Marist still does not weight for education, but Marquette does. The average of the past two LV screen weighted BA+ at 40%. Good to have that number in mind when looking at the new NBC/Marist poll later this afternoon.

[Gass3268]

I don't get the Super Nintendo Evers pun

Here

[Gass3268]

As I said way back when, this is a lot of why I supported Vinehout over Evers. This is the urban vs rural divide rearing its ugly head, even though Walker is just as much "Madison" as Evers, but he can look like he's not because Republican. Tammy is doing better than I expected, but she is an incumbent, her competition is also female and from Milwaukee. I'm really, really nervous about this. If Walker wins again, I... Well, I pray the legislature can miraculously fight against him, but hey-o gerrymandering.

Anyway, I'll be canvassing over the next couple of weeks. I've seen a few Walker signs here in west/southwest Madison, so hopefully there are folks who can still be talked with.

In addition, I've gotten about 20 copies of anti-Evers mail and nothing pro-Evers. The online ads for Evers I've seen have simply been whining about Walker's attacks rather than ignoring them and focusing on what Evers is going to do. I hope my experience is not what is going on in greater Wisconsin, or else Evers isn't going to get the numbers he needs.

Marist has Evers winning by 9 in the Southwest and by 2 in the North.

[Gass3268]

Brutal ad against Walker:

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1051896117850505221

[Gass3268]

Trump is coming Mosinee for Leah Vukmir. So far no word if Walker will be in attendance.

https://twitter.com/msommerhauser/status/1052667181304094720

[Gass3268]

This is notable:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1052928421771137024

[Gass3268]

More bad news for Walker:

https://twitter.com/WiStateJournal/status/1052954227666874368