Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Scott Walker is now accusing Tony Evers of plagiarism: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/scott-walker-hits-tony-evers-over-plagiarized-material-in-budget/article_c2d4d2ea-b65a-563e-960b-977a9342634a.html

The man is doing everything he can to win. He doesn't know how to campaign on his own merits because he doesn't have any.

I see he's shed his muhmoderate snake skin and gone straight for dumpster fire politics. This is a clear departure from his previous sleezy campaign tactics that he used when he felt comfortable. I doubt this will help, but it seems to me like a panic move.

Should note that the author of the work that DPI used without citation is just happy that is work was used.

[Gass3268]

Russia is trying to F wit Tammy:

https://twitter.com/tammybaldwin/status/1053652825635479552

[Gass3268]

I guess there really are lots of Walker-Baldwin voters afrer all. This article explains why the governor's race between Walker and Evers is so close compared to the U.S. Senate race between Baldwin and Vukmir: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/with-wisconsin-voters-split-on-governor-tammy-baldwin-enjoys-commanding/article_dbd4b577-1e00-5f47-947f-f7fef3692e17.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

Come on, Wisconsin! PLEASE get rid of Walker.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sigh. Just like I've said. I'm still so upset that Vinehout didn't win; We'd be seeing a very different race. But no use crying over spilt milk.

Vinehout ran an awful campaign, barely raised more than a few thousand dollars.

[Gass3268]

Atlantic: I Respected Scott Walker. Then I Worked For Him.

Peter Bildsten
Former secretary of the Wisconsin Department of Financial Institutions

[Gass3268]

The last poll was like during the middle of the Kavanaugh brew-ha-ha, so I'm guessing Evers +1.

[Gass3268]

It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

Yup

[Gass3268]

It was nice to see Obama call out Walker as the liar he is today.

[Gass3268]

I'll be interested to see if Charles Franklin will discuss the responses he got each day. I am wondering if there were any changes do to the events of the past few days.

[Gass3268]

Good chunk of change for Evers for the homestretch:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1056898140144627712

[Gass3268]

I've read somewhere that up to a quarter of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee counties have been purged from the voter rolls. Is there any truth to that? This seems like an enormous figure.

I think I might have a spreadsheet at work, but yeah that's pretty close to accurate. I'll see if I can find the numbers tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

I've read somewhere that up to a quarter of registered voters in Dane and Milwaukee counties have been purged from the voter rolls. Is there any truth to that? This seems like an enormous figure.

I think I might have a spreadsheet at work, but yeah that's pretty close to accurate. I'll see if I can find the numbers tomorrow.

.........this is INSANE.

Under what pretense were they removed? And how many of them would have been likely to vote if they hadn't been disenfranchised? Could they reapply for registration?

Wisconsin has same-day registration, so that'll mitigate some of the blow at least.

Thank God.

This happened too:

21,000 Milwaukee residents will get their voter registrations reinstated before the election.

Also, a lot of the places where the % was higher were in counties with large colleges. So it would make sense that folks would get removed from the rolls after they left the area after school. Like I was probably one of the names that got purged from Dane County, considering I am now a Maryland voter.

That being said, I don't doubt that some of this was nefarious.

[Gass3268]

Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056

If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.

[Gass3268]

Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056

If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.

He can easily make up the margins where Dems have struggled recently (The Driftless as well as Duffy's district).

If he can’t win WI-06, he can’t win the Driftless. You act like the Driftless is dark red because “muh 2016” when Rebecca Dallet dominated that same region in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.

Yeah, most polling shows the Democrats have rebounded pretty well in the Driftless area, outside of maybe that belt of counties of Monroe, Juneau, Adams and Marquette (debatable of those last two are in the Driftless Area.

[Gass3268]

Pence is coming to Hudson on Sunday.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1057345552596287490

[Gass3268]

Evers is now getting a State Patrol guard similar to Walker:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1057626393700417536

[Gass3268]

A lot more Likely voter respondents then the past, about 300 more. Good to see them increase the size of the sample.

I'm going Walker +1, Baldwin +7.

[Gass3268]

Well, it's a tie.

It's not even a rounded tie, it's an exact tie with respondents.

[Gass3268]

Were they using 2014 demographics again?

They weight for education...to my knowledge, the only one polling Wisconsin that does.

The LV screen is pretty tight, with only "certain to vote" voters getting into the LV pool.

There non-white sample is way too Republican too.

[Gass3268]

Democrats have the enthusiasm:

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1057697866527969281

I actually feel pretty good about this poll all things considered.

[Gass3268]

Here is a great article from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel doing a region by region break down of the Marquette polling:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Article here.

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

Okay, so this isn't quite as alarming as it sounded to me. Good.

The solution to this would be to have a national voter registry that keeps track when you move to a different state, but of course Americans don't want that because something something BIG GUVMENT!!

To follow up on this:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1058034844574367744

That's a big number, but it only turns out to be a 4% reduction in 4 years. Not horrendous, especially considering you can register at the polls in Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

With the new Marquette Poll showing a tie, I thought I'd make a map of what a tied Wisconsin race could look like. The below map shows the average of the 2014 Secretary of State race and the 2014 State Treasurer race. Averaged together you get a 47.54%-47.38% race that the Republicans win by 3,657 race. The giant caveat here obviously is this is pre-Trump, as of now I am guessing that some of the Democratic counties (Adams) might go Republican, some of those light blue Republican counties in the North might have a stronger shade of blue, and that the Republican margins in the Southeast might not be as dark. Overall, I think this is still a good representation of what a tie could look like.

     

[Gass3268]

Okay, so this isn't quite as alarming as it sounded to me. Good.

The solution to this would be to have a national voter registry that keeps track when you move to a different state, but of course Americans don't want that because something something BIG GUVMENT!!

To follow up on this:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1058034844574367744

That's a big number, but it only turns out to be a 4% reduction in 4 years. Not horrendous, especially considering you can register at the polls in Wisconsin.

But how much of that decline occurred from 2015-16?

With the usual same day registration bump, they should be back close to the post-2014 level of registered voters.



Source

[Gass3268]

Why does Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland counties always vote Democratic?

A large % of the people that settled in this region where Finns and they settled fairly late in the settlement history of Wisconsin. I think many were leftwingers that feld Imperial Russia and they brought their politcs with them and passed them down to their childern. Iron County, which is the most Finnish, has lost a lot of this. However the other three counties have had other factors (shipping, industry, tourism, state university in Superior, etc.) that have helped keep those numbers stable.