Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Crazy thing is that Sun Prairie just built a brand new massive high school like less than 10 years ago, but they are growing like crazy.

[Gass3268]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mmjWa6bJMFtDRFDIUD-3DjwGqiI1MFc-99lSE6R1jTU/edit?usp=sharing

I have a Google Sheet where I am going to compare the results to last years race as the Wisconsin counties do a pretty good job at posting results on their websites.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1113229234674253824

[Gass3268]

So wait, there are no results anywhere with a map?

I haven't found anything yet. The Milwaukee Journal Sentential might once results start coming in.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has a map

https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2019/4/2/april-2019-wisconsin-election-results.html?utm_source=jsonline-News%20Alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news_alerts&utm_term=news_alert
 

[Gass3268]

Sorry, no one is doing results by ward, my spreadsheet is useless.

[Gass3268]

These results look a lot like Evers vs Walker.

[Gass3268]

The Brown County results are all from the townships, that margin should drop.

[Gass3268]

I think it's gonna come down to the Driftless area, Neubauer is over performing there a bit. While she's under performing in the Southeast. Looks like a typical spring election in Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

Marathon, Menominee, La Crosse and Outagamie hasn't come in yet. What would that mean

Marathon - Hagedorn
Menominee -  Hagedorn, too little to matter
La Crosse - Neubauer
Outagamie - Hagedorn, but the margin is going to be important

[Gass3268]

Neubauer gained on Evers margin in St. Criox.

[Gass3268]

Good or bad that Neubauer is underperforming Evers in WOW?

Seems like Hagedorn is getting near-normal GOP levels in that region.

This is looking like a more typical close Wisconsin election.

[Gass3268]

That Lafayette number is very good for Neubauer, especially if its indicative of the rest of the rest of Southwest Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

Statewide margin down to 3 with 55% in.

please explain to me how neubauer is going to win with all of dane and milwaukee in.

The entire Southwest part of the state is still left to report and we really don't know what's going on there yet, but early clues look pretty good for Neubauer.

[Gass3268]

Statewide margin down to 3 with 55% in.

please explain to me how neubauer is going to win with all of dane and milwaukee in.

I don't have access to county results, but it's my understanding that Dane is not entirely in.

Still 5% left, plus 3% in Milwaukee County.

[Gass3268]

Where's all the concern coming from? Aside from low turnout in Milwaukee, Neubauer seems to be doing fine, and should win barring a blowout in the Driftless.

Marathon, Outagamie, and Walworth are scary.

But...

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1113265884209008640

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1113266189881487360

[Gass3268]

Hagedorn's lead was cut big time in Brown County, 86.81% and he's only up 53-57.

[Gass3268]

Neubauer is ahead by 1 vote in Portage. lol

That will shift to Neubauer once Stevens Point starts fully rolling in.

[Gass3268]

Almost the entire City of Sheboygan is still out. That's good for Neubauer.

[Gass3268]

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

They are typically a good bellwether.