Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Gass3268]

Damn, Dane County reported 86.6% turnout.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1060042022743085056

[Gass3268]

Walker's hometown of Wauwatosa, which has swung heavily Democrat recently hasn't reported either:

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1060043412135731200

[Gass3268]

I mean, I don't know a lot about WI, but about 20 minutes ago, I counted outstanding precincts:

356 in R counties
149 in D counties

Though I know that in my own state, the "precincts reporting" figures/stats are absolutely garbage. Can somebody explain why Evers can still win?

Nearly 50,000 absentees missing from MKE alone.

The entire City of Green Bay hasn't reported. It's not a massively Democratic city, but it should cut into Walker's margin there.

[Gass3268]

One student ward left in Madison:

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1060048080320507905

[Gass3268]

City of Green Bay reported, it cut Walker's lead down in Brown County to 8.2 points.

[Gass3268]

Evers gained ~31,000 in Milwaukee County

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/1060062097860648960

[Gass3268]

Funny thing is, they passed a law that you can only have a recount if you lost by less than 1%. They are currently above that.

[Gass3268]

Madison represented:

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1060065845685219328

[Gass3268]

It's crazy that Evers has essentially won by combining Feingold's and Clinton's map.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee should be the favorite for the DNC in 2020.

[Gass3268]

Final map:



Little bummed with Lafayette County for purely aesthetic reasons.

[Gass3268]

Looks like Marquette WAS the Gold Standard after all.

Technically the Research Compnay nailed it at Evers +1.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is making it pretty clear that unless the margin falls below 1%, Walker can't ask for a recount.

[Gass3268]

Also the damaged ballots that Walker is crying about are from the City of Milwaukee:

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1060201613510565890

Don't see how that helps him.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is making it pretty clear that unless the margin falls below 1%, Walker can't ask for a recount.

Hope that's true. What we win if it can't happen:

1. The assault on schools/healthcare stops
2. Regional transit authorities might be able to be made legal
3. The assault on Milwaukee/the new streetcar system
4. The continued bonding and not paying of road interest should be stopped. Republicans might be willing to get a small gas tax increase since they were not happy with Walker on his road plan.

Court drawn maps in 2021.

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is making it pretty clear that unless the margin falls below 1%, Walker can't ask for a recount.

Hope that's true. What we win if it can't happen:

1. The assault on schools/healthcare stops
2. Regional transit authorities might be able to be made legal
3. The assault on Milwaukee/the new streetcar system
4. The continued bonding and not paying of road interest should be stopped. Republicans might be willing to get a small gas tax increase since they were not happy with Walker on his road plan.

Court drawn maps in 2021.

Who controls the courts, though? 

Regardless, it will be be better than the current situation.

[Gass3268]

It'll be key to watch how Republicans in the legislature behave. They could try to remove the Governor from the redistricting process, but voters will have to approve it. What I will say is that if they wanted to do that, it basically costs nothing. But the big failure of the North Carolina GOP's amendment schemes this cycle might help instill a sense of futility in the WIGOP. Although walking away from this election with little-to-no erosion in their legislative ranks might embolden them. I dunno.

Also there is no guarantee the WIGOP has a state Supreme Court majority by the time the maps need to be redrawn. I think Democrats have some opportunities, and at worst, the GOP will only have a small majority on the bench.

Edit: Actually, seems like Republicans will likely have a bare majority for redistricting, but that hardly means the GOP will just gerrymander through them instead, if it falls to the judges.

Couple things: 1) There is not enough time for Repubilcans to get a Consitutional Amendment on the ballot in time before 2021. It has to pass in two consecutive terms. That is unless they call a special session before January. 2) If there is a deadlock regarding redistricting, the federal courts will get the authority to drawn the lines, not the state courts. Look at Virgina for example.

[Gass3268]

It'll be key to watch how Republicans in the legislature behave. They could try to remove the Governor from the redistricting process, but voters will have to approve it. What I will say is that if they wanted to do that, it basically costs nothing. But the big failure of the North Carolina GOP's amendment schemes this cycle might help instill a sense of futility in the WIGOP. Although walking away from this election with little-to-no erosion in their legislative ranks might embolden them. I dunno.

Also there is no guarantee the WIGOP has a state Supreme Court majority by the time the maps need to be redrawn. I think Democrats have some opportunities, and at worst, the GOP will only have a small majority on the bench.

Edit: Actually, seems like Republicans will likely have a bare majority for redistricting, but that hardly means the GOP will just gerrymander through them instead, if it falls to the judges.

Couple things: 1) There is not enough time for Repubilcans to get a Consitutional Amendment on the ballot in time before 2021. It has to pass in two consecutive terms. That is unless they call a special session before January. 2) If there is a deadlock regarding redistricting, the federal courts will get the authority to drawn the lines, not the state courts. Look at Virgina for example.

Are you forgetting who controls the federal courts? 

Even in 2011 when the Bushies controlled the federal courts, court drawn maps where much fairer than partisan drawn maps. Also they always appoint a special master, who's usually a college professor somewhere.

[Gass3268]

Walker conceded!!!

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1060258991215992833

[Gass3268]

Virginia: You were right

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1060301509584404480?s=21

[Gass3268]

Virginia: You were right

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1060301509584404480?s=21

This is gonna go about as well as it did in NC.

Exactly

Stuff like this is how you accelerate trends against your party.

[Gass3268]

What were the gains/losses in the Legislature? I know the Republicans kept the majorities, I just haven't been able to find out the specifics.

R+1 in State Senate, NC in State Assembly.

AD-14 will go to a recount, Republican is up by like 21 votes.

[Gass3268]

I should also note that Vos is the one saying this and Fitzgerald (State Senate Majority Leader) was noncommittal. Lots of times Vos and much more right-wing Assembly like to try to do crazy things and then get smacked down by the State Senate. That could be the case here.

[Gass3268]

Sounds like the chances of stripping powers from the Governor is increasing.