2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BudgieForce]

is nv over?

Probably. Theres late mail in votes and provisionals left to count. Mail in should benefit Joe, god knows about provisionals.

[BudgieForce]

Young affluent liberals from swing states need to stop moving in droves to liberal strongholds like NY and CA.

After last night, I'm very tempted to move back to New Jersey.

[BudgieForce]

What's going on with Arizona?  I went to bed last night feeling pretty good because Fox/AP called it, then I wake up and see the lead has narrowed to 3%.  Wasn't really expecting the lead to narrow with the outstanding vote being what it is.

AP called it based off data that was not from Edison Research which apparently had an error over how much of the vote was reporting.

So the AP call is reliable?

It should be, yes.

[BudgieForce]

Talcum X is worried:

https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/1324037740334338048?s=20

There's lots of mail in ballots from Clark County. Biden should be fine.

[BudgieForce]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

Theres still something like 200,000 votes in the Atlanta area that need to be counted.

[BudgieForce]

Who is ticket splitting for Collins still??

Northeastern democrats love moderate republicans.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1324041497143058432


Though, who are these Data Orbital exactly? FWIW, they a A/B with D+0.3 bias according to 538. No GOP affiliation at the first glance.

Data_Orbital is making a big assumption in thinking "late early votes" will be better for Trump. Sinema won late earlies in 2018 and I'm not sure why a Trump voter would go out of their way to hand in a late ballot when they could just vote in person.

[BudgieForce]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

Theres not much to talk about. There are anywhere between 400,000 to 500,000 votes. Most of the in person vote was counted so the remainder is early vote. A large chunk of that early vote is "late early vote", or ballots dropped off on election day. We don't know how those ballots will go. Arizona will update its results at 9pm eastern.

[BudgieForce]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

It's been called by FOX News and AP. I don't see it trending toward Trump. So it should be called for Biden in a few hours. I suspect Nevada is Biden's also, but by a very slim margin.

Surprised Wisconsin has not been called as well.

Nevada is my big concern right now. Biden is leading but it is still in the toss-up category and Trump is running ahead of what people thought.

Jon Ralston thinks theres alot of mail in ballots from Clark county left to count. They should be strong for Biden. Knowing that, i'm not too concerned about Nevada.

[BudgieForce]

CNN just projected Biden the winner of Wisconsin.

[BudgieForce]

A Michigan call should be soon according to Biden's camp. Or atleast thats what they said earlier in the day.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1324063064661123076?s=19

Mailed in or dropped off in person on ED?

Thinking Trump makes the comeback in AZ now.

92,000 of that is in Pima County which is significantly more democrat than Maricopa. I think that could help Biden.

[BudgieForce]

Possible complications in GA:

https://twitter.com/GilForGeorgia/status/1324018963999821824?s=20

Are these included in the "outstanding vote to count" stats or are they in addition to it?  The former and Trump wins, the latter and Biden is almost a sure thing.  

I think your signature goes on the outside of the envelope, so I think those ballots would have been rejected before getting sorted and prepped for counting.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/kyfri11/status/1324070580732252163?s=19

I don't think ABC ever confirmed AZ for Biden. Just Fox and AP. If ABC did, then AP/NBC would have, since they all have Edison?

ABC never called Arizona. Only Fox and AP.

[BudgieForce]

I think we're going to end up with this.

Meme map. What would even be the consensus here if Democrats win Georgia and the rust belt, but lose AZ/NV?

I'm not sure how many times I can post about D-leaning mail in ballots needing to be counted in Clark County. But people keep ignoring it.

[BudgieForce]

Maybe a counting bias, but I'd never thought I'd see the day where NJ was to the left of NY. Boy have times changed.

[BudgieForce]

Why don't they call Michigan already? it's over

If Fox calls Michigan than Biden is at 270. They might be waiting for the 9pm Arizona update to be safe.

[BudgieForce]

Are we supposed to get a big Georgia update right about now?

I believe so.

[BudgieForce]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

I checked and I think the dem house majority will survive, but there are some really sad losses all the same.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-house.html

[BudgieForce]

reminder that even if Fulton doesn't put Biden in the lead, Dougherty is still not all in yet.

And Gwinnett isnt entirely in either.

[BudgieForce]

reminder that even if Fulton doesn't put Biden in the lead, Dougherty is still not all in yet.

And Gwinnett isnt entirely in either.

Gwinett is hovering around 60% Biden, right?

Yep. So Biden won't net a huge amount of votes, but it's still on the table.

[BudgieForce]

Jon Ralston is really hyping Nevada's update tomorrow.

[BudgieForce]

I can't believe after all that time, they only reported that many votes.

There is another report at midnight eastern time I think.

[BudgieForce]

Arizona is going to end up very close, and probably shouldn't have been called.

[BudgieForce]

Biden's camp said they're confident they'll win Arizona even with the tightening.