Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

Passing a floor amendment after the house sends the bill over != killing the bill.

It can’t pass the House w/o SALT relief

That might not be true if Democratic leadership was a little more willing to play hardball. If they can get everyone but Collin Peterson on board for impeachment, they can manage this. There are better uses of their political capital, of course, but there are also worse uses, and they actively pursue these from time to time.

This is a reliable, progressive revenue generator that is already in place and not beset by loopholes. Good federal governance is rare enough, so where it ain't broke, don't fix it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

Passing a floor amendment after the house sends the bill over != killing the bill.

It can’t pass the House w/o SALT relief

That might not be true if Democratic leadership was a little more willing to play hardball. If they can get everyone but Collin Peterson on board for impeachment, they can manage this. There are better uses of their political capital, of course, but there are also worse uses, and they actively pursue these from time to time.

This is a reliable, progressive revenue generator that is already in place and not beset by loopholes. Good federal governance is rare enough, so where it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Playing hardball isn’t the issue; the House Democratic leadership strongly supports SALT relief.

That is an example of misuse of political capital (which undermines their electability claims).

The Biden administration does not support it, and so should push them. The base will polarise more easily around the president's position than the Speaker's.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1377748114916917252
 

Pelosi just said yesterday that she hopes to do it, so unless Biden's threatening to veto (which is, y'know, lol), this doesn't actually stop Congress from just adding the proposal in on their own.

That requires it to get through senate reconciliation untouched. And I'd be pretty surprised if Manchin or whatever didn't kill it there.

Manchin won’t kill it lol

Why on earth wouldn't Manchin touch SALT? The GOP could bring up a floor amendment to just SALT and he could vote yes. He forced changes to the stimulus bill, after all.

“Changes”

Manchin isn’t going to force the removal of something the Democratic congressional leadership cares about, he’s basically our Susan Collins.

Yeah but now he has the same position as Biden.

especially when the bill probably can’t pass the House without it.

Earmarks, baby.

Pelosi supports SALT relief; why would she use earmarks to kill it?  And why would Biden pick this as a hill to die on, regardless of his views on the issues?  Why would it matter to him that much?

"Relief" lmao. Because Biden can probably get everything he wants here. No adjustments to SALT and more infrastructure to buy off the suburbanites. Plus, I really don't see this playing well with most senators. Other than Manchin, I can absolutely see someone like Sanders throwing a fit over this with the go-ahead from Biden.

Neither Bernie nor Manchin nor Biden are gonna kill the bill over this.

Passing a floor amendment after the house sends the bill over != killing the bill.

It can’t pass the House w/o SALT relief

That might not be true if Democratic leadership was a little more willing to play hardball. If they can get everyone but Collin Peterson on board for impeachment, they can manage this. There are better uses of their political capital, of course, but there are also worse uses, and they actively pursue these from time to time.

This is a reliable, progressive revenue generator that is already in place and not beset by loopholes. Good federal governance is rare enough, so where it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Playing hardball isn’t the issue; the House Democratic leadership strongly supports SALT relief.

That is an example of misuse of political capital (which undermines their electability claims).

The Biden administration does not support it, and so should push them. The base will polarise more easily around the president's position than the Speaker's.

There is no reason for Biden to choose SALT relief as a hill to die on when it’s clear the issue is a pretty low priority for him and a high priority for the Democratic congressional leadership as well as various lower-profile congress-critters whose votes we need.  You want the bill to pass the House?  Well, for better or worse, one of the prices for that is including SALT relief.

I’m not saying it’s the best thing to pick a fight over, but it’s clearly better than some of the things the Biden admin has fought over.

If they can call the failure to nominate Neera Tanden a structurally racist injustice, they can make a bit more noise about an attempt to scrap a perfectly decent means of redistribution.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Every NY House Dem except AOC & Rice is drawing a hard line in the sand on repealing the SALT cap.

Bowman too? Dang.

Weird how a DSA member wants tax cuts for wealthy people.

As I've said before, the SALT cap as enacted puts a pressure on higher tax blue states to lower their taxes. These are the states that have more generous programs for those that need them, including Medicaid and other social welfare programs. Note how many low tax red states have restrictive Medicaid programs and have refused federal money to expand it as per the ACA. I don't necessarily support eliminating the cap, but I would support raising it to affect only the highest of earners.

It doesn't; the small number of voters affected by it (who make up a greater proportion of donors) do. State legislators should have the spines to not cut taxes almost exclusively for the rich, and Congress should not cover for weak state legislators or pander to these donors.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The mid-Atlantic has the worst Democrats in the country.

And Not the south?

In the Senate, they tend not to get elected. The mid-Atlantic has Coons, Carper, Cardin, Menendez and Warner. Along with Feinstein, they are probably the core members of the “fiscally conservative, socially liberal” ex-DLC group who should not be Senators for any states, let alone deep blue ones.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The commitment to vote on the infrastructure bill by September 27 is non-binding, but the leadership does appear to have lost some leverage today (assuming it was even invested in winning this struggle to begin with).

So much for Pelosi the Incredible Negotiator.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/salt-cap-relief-faces-rollback-as-democrats-eye-less-spending

SALT-Cap Relief Faces Rollback as Democrats Eye Less Spending

Great news, and exactly what Gottheimer deserves for concern trolling.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I still think what is best for the GOP is for a bunch of House GOP members to approach Pelosi to say that they will make up the vote Progressive vote she will lose on BIF. 

Apparently McCarthy is actively whipping against it, unfortunately

That's hardly a strong disincentive.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/EoinHiggins_/status/1455251937327206400
A reminder that Manchin and Sinema are not irrational actors or the only politicians bought off by donors. They're almost certainly team players for a sizeable number of, if not most, Senate Democrats, and their role is to cover the asses of those too scared to vote against BBB.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

When the Republicans have better messaging for BBB than the Democrats: https://www.twitter.com/StewartforUtah/status/1458465740168876037

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

When the Republicans have better messaging for BBB than the Democrats: https://www.twitter.com/StewartforUtah/status/1458465740168876037

But ... all those things are good. Biden should just retweet the graphic.

That was my point.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Could it really be true? Could we really have finally reached the last phase of the Manchin Cycle?

Most of BBB is already gone, SALT is in and the delay itself has arguably had electoral consequences.

However, the cycle holds if one assumes the leadership didn't actually want or care about what was originally pitched.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the bill ultimately increases wealth inequality, sinking it will probably be worthwhile.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1461392018622582789?t=oJR1cgPf-xvg-Q-88bV...
https://twitter.com/senatorbennet/status/1461341960615124995?s=21

WTF, this is all backwards. The SALT deduction cap was intended to offset the reduced tax rate and weaker AMT, not the other way around. Trump's idea was to reward his rich buddies but offset it in a way that specifically punishes upper middle class professionals in blue states, a group that hates him and voted overwhelmingly against him. Essentially he singled out a minority group he didn't like and targeted it for oppression. The SALT change in BBB is about redressing an injustice, not a tax cut for the rich.

To be clear, when compucomp says "punish" upper middle class, compucomp means that people who earns $600,000 pays extra $5,000.

When the guy that makes $6m in that same state had his taxes cut, while the guy that makes $600k had his taxes raised, hell yes it is a punishment and an injustice.

Tax increases for individuals who make $600k are never injustice.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We’re (well compucomp isn’t) DEMOCRATS, we’re supposed to oppose tax cuts for the rich! What would Harry Truman think of these tax giveaways to the “eastern establishment.”

Fine then, have fun in 2022 reading stories of massive R fundraising advantages and underfunded D incumbents begging for cash and help when the flood of Democratic money that seemed infinite in 2018 and 2020 just dries up.

Senators Jaime Harrison and Amy McGrath are quaking in their boots.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/repgolden/status/1461641140424355849?s=21
https://twitter.com/repgolden/status/1461641143628800002?s=21
https://twitter.com/repgolden/status/1461641146430590978?s=21
Lmao.

If the bill’s going to pass anyway, this is the kind of politicking he should do. Much smarter than deficit concern trolling and makes it easier for the Senate to kick it back to the House with fewer giveaways for the rich.

SALT is going to make this bill a messaging nightmare for Democrats.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Either way, the US Congress is incompetent.

I’m glad someone here can keep their perspective. It agonised for months over this one bill, tore out most of it, added some poison and only passed it after an election loss. Pelosi either couldn’t or chose not to reign in Gottheimer, which makes her a bit of a joke.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/RepJoshG/status/1461704253551087621
Red wave incoming! His like will avoid the blame, though.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This has not passed the senate, I don't know why everyone is celebrating. Not a sure thing.

Cope.

*Manchin votes "no"

Cope

Huh? The Senate hasn't voted yet, silly.

Thank you, Nancy, for delivering for the American middle class, despite the brief obstruction of House business last night by a deranged lunatic who had stumbled into the chamber from a nearby watering hole.

How does raising the SALT cap to 82,500 help people in poverty? Not to mention this bill doesn’t actually pay for itself, meaning the government pays more than it gets into revenue, leading to higher inflation. Also, because some of the provisions sunset after 2-5 years, that means the inflationary pressures are even stronger short-term.

Y’all, this bill is not good as it stands. Reduce the SALT cap to 10,000 or 20,000 at most and then make the bill actually paid for, and then I support it. I didn’t vote for Joe Biden and the dems to give tax cuts to upper middle class and rich people living in high tax states. I mean, this personally benefits me a lot because my parents pay taxes in New Jersey, but it’s sh** policy and weird seeing “progressives” gloat over a tax cut for the rich.

I agree that the SALT provision in the bill currently is horrible policy and horrible optics. Hopefully the Senate substitutes it with their own SALT compromise that's much more palatable and costs much less. Better yet, strip SALT out entirely (not going to happen, but one can hope!)

In regards to the deficit impact of the bill, you have to consider that the Senate will very likely strip out the paid family leave provisions since Manchin opposes them and the immigration provisions will be ruled non-germane under reconciliation after the 'Byrd Bath' is completed. Those two actions alone will reduce gross estimated outlays to the tune of $300 billion or so. That doesn't even consider the fact that CBO didn't include the score for the tax enforcement provisions, which should further increase revenue and make the bill budget positive.

Here is the breakout:

Current CBO Estimated Effect on Deficit: $367 Billion (Cost)

Paid Family & Medical Leave: +$205 Billion (Cost)

Immigration Provisions: +$111 Billion (Cost)

Tax Enforcement Provisions: -$127 Billion (Savings)

So add in the savings from the tax enforcement provisions and subtract outlays for the immigration provisions and paid family and medical leave and the effect on the deficit over ten years is $76 billion in savings. Of course, there's good reason to argue that CBO's estimated savings from the tax enforcement provisions included in the bill are overly-conservative (WH estimates around $400 billion in savings over ten years, FYSA).

If you're explaining, you're losing. BBB still seems to be legislature which improves the status quo, but if it passes in its current form, the SALT provision is going to be an excellent talking point for the GOP and a devastating blow to BBB's (already questionable) popularity, especially in the short-to-medium term when the effects of the bill aren't felt firsthand by voters.

Trump will have full credibility when he outflanks the Democrats on SALT, and I hope the next administration slashes the cap to $0.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/RepJoshG/status/1461704253551087621
Red wave incoming! His like will avoid the blame, though.

So you're happy to reap the benefits when multiple NJ/NY/CA/IL House Republicans go down in 2018, in no small part due to the Trump tax law's vindictive and unjust SALT cap, and happy to rake in the funds from affected people shoveling money at Democrats out of hate for Trump, but now you're ready to throw these guys under the bus?

Yes.

The 1% are a small proportion of voters in the vast majority of districts. Their donations were of limited value (as proved in 2020) as the Democrats were already going to have a reasonable fundraising edge over Republicans, and the ActBlue overkill produced rapidly diminishing returns.

Besides, if these elites want to signal how much more socially progressive they are than the "Evil" WWC (and they absolutely do!), it's perfectly reasonable to expect them to put their money with their mouths are.

Do you even want to try to keep the House majority in 2022?

Yeah (and I think not raising the cap would have helped with this), but there's only so much the administration can do at this point to ensure that happens. It's more important to look beyond 2022 when it comes to legislation - I'd prefer to prioritise good, popular governance (which would, incidentally, do more to ensure the long-term health of the Democratic Party).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Democrats get another chance at reconciliation in September. Not that I would expect much.

I wouldn't expect one before the election, but could the chance of a bill passing in the lame duck be higher?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sanders has offered some criticism of the bill; cited CBO assessment that it wouldn’t do much to reduce inflation. ET is cross.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sanders has offered some criticism of the bill; cited CBO assessment that it wouldn’t do much to reduce inflation. ET is cross.

Many politicians, especially United States senators, get very frustrated when they aren’t the center of attention.

He’s most likely offering criticism to make the case for various amendments, but I expect all of them to fail.