The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Zarn]

Populists are not really libertarians... at all.  Populists prefer majority rule. Libertarians tend to keep the minorities in mind.

[Zarn]

Just as a note, Obama's recent drop in approval seems to be coming mostly from the 18-34 demographic.

In Illinois, that group Approves of him by only 45-43, in PA it's 47-47, and even though they didn't poll Obama directly in Colorado, that group is Hickenlooper's worst, disapproving of him 39-45 and supports him in a 3-way race by only 10 points compared to his 25 point edge overall. (All 3 PPP)

Gallup has Obama down to 46% Among them last week too.  For the group that voted for Obama by such huge margins, this is a pretty big drop.

Age Wave!!!

This post is brought to you by freedom.

[Zarn]

Isn't a populist the exact opposite of a libertarian?

No, not in the least. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That would be de-alignment and we are getting more partisan. 

You seriously think there will be a realignment towards Republicans when more people disapprove of their job in the congress than the Democrats? It doesn't mean the Democrats don't lose big in 2010, since they are the incumbents. But what it means is that Republican support will be very shallow and the electorate could abandon them for the slightest of reasons. 

It is more than hating the incumbents; they are starting to hate what the incumbents stand for.

Like 2008?

When they elected even more Democrats?

[Zarn]

There was not any change between Bush and Obama. People thought that going Crat would bring it. It did not.

While not an appealing option, people may hold their noses in hopes that the GOP has changed its ways.

[Zarn]

There was not any change between Bush and Obama. People thought that going Crat would bring it. It did not.

While not an appealing option, people may hold their noses in hopes that the GOP has changed its ways.

Disagree. Obama wouldn't do something stupid like squander massive surpluses in good economic times, launch a disastrous war on trumped up evidence, or encourage, protect and promote something as disastrous as one bubble on top of another. Say what you want about Obama, he has a temperate nature, not a reckless one.

It's the Republicans who haven't changed. Handed a guaranteed win cycle where they could have chosen moderates or normal conservatives, they've put themselves at risk to nominate far out tea party candidates. Handed an opportunity by the Senate filibuster to cooperate and help shape the health care bill, they instead chose to gamble on obstruction and lost any say in the final bill. The Republicans gamble with their future just as they gambled (and lost) America's future when they were in charge.

This is another good reason why the Dems will lose. Ignorance.

[Zarn]

New Jersey has dipped on Obama before. Remember right before our 2009 election? It was rather negative.

Besides, PA has been dipping and NJ would likely trend in the same direction as PA.

[Zarn]

Florida is very touchy about oil spills. New Jersey? In line with Pennsylvania.

Just wait a month or so. The states get polled frequently.

FL was never that touchy about it.  NJ is never in line with PA.

I think both polls might be bad.

Lol NJ is not the same, but the movement is similar, at least recently.

[Zarn]

Great, another hack making maps.

[Zarn]

I think you colored Washington incorrectly

What if he failed Kindergarten, and you just exposed him on the forum? How bad would you feel about that? Exactly.

[Zarn]

The hating on pbrower2 is hilarious. He has the right idea, but his system isn't all the great.

You have no idea how much of a terrible hack he is.

[Zarn]

The hating on pbrower2 is hilarious. He has the right idea, but his system isn't all the great.

You have no idea how much of a terrible hack he is.

Yeah, that lunatic keeps showing Obama getting more than 1 electoral vote in the 2012 election.

/sarcasm

How old are you?

[Zarn]

That's spot on.

On an unrelated note, I hate his color scheme. BTW, I couldn't care less what he is registered as. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty close to leaving the GOP myself. I like to vote in the primaries, but they are getting to be a little much with their anti-Muslim rhetoric.

Your age is about what I thought it was, TBH.

[Zarn]

Actually, I'd regard Pbrower as less of a hack as some of the Republicans here.

At least his viewpoint makes sense.  His belief is that Obama will get 10% more than his approval rating.  The logic is that some of those who disapprove of Obama are left-leaning indies who would vote for him anyway when the opponent is a Republican.

I disagree with the logic but it's still logic.  Pbrower may be an out of touch extreme liberal but he's not a hack.

Now, some of the "fiscally conservative"/Northeastern Republicans here are total hacks.

Do you even know what a hack is?

[Zarn]

PA is in the Northeast.

NY, NJ, and PA are the Mid-Atlantic. Coupled with New England, you get the Northeast.

[Zarn]

It's campaign season, it will not simply continue going up. People need a reason to actually changes their minds.

[Zarn]

First, your Rasmussen comment makes no sense. Pollsters jobs are to get results, not stories.

Second, favorables are meaningless.

[Zarn]

Democratic

[Zarn]

Or maybe the electorate has shifted since then.

I recognize your narrative for this November will be that the reason why the Democrat Party lost was because Democrats didn't show up but the reality may very well be that there are fewer Democrats as the country has shifted since 2008.

Thailand certainly has shifted since the fall of Abhisit, but that's benefited the Democrats, not hurt them.

     I'm personally curious as to why Tender Branson would care enough to be spinning the loss of the Democrat Party. Maybe he has family in Thailand or something.

My post has nothing to do with "spinning the 2010 election".

It´s more about the 2012 election. Just because this year there are fewer Democrats turning out, it doesn´t mean at all that the electorate has shifted in the last 2 years. To the contrary, there has almost been no change in party identification in the last 2 years, check some of the registration figures below. Democrats are just sitting it out this year, but there´s a good enough chance that once the Republican Presidential joke is coming out of the primary, they will turn out en masse again. It´s the silent majority and they will be reactivated by the Obama campaign in Mid-2012.

As for the registration numbers:

California

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/60day-gen-10/hist-reg-stats.pdf

(The number of Republicans there has dropped to record lows)

In Florida, Democrats still have a 600.000 advantage over the Republicans, about the same as it was in 2008.

And so on ...

There´s no indicator that the registered electorate has changed the way for example Rasmussen wants to tell us it has ...

     ...I didn't say you were spinning the 2010 election.

Stop spinning!!! Spinning the idea that you were accusing him of spinning into not accusing him of spinning... are you serious?

You cannot help yourself, can you?

I suggest you join Spinners Anonymous.

[Zarn]

47-48% would seem to be the new norm. 

I'm going to wait until mid-November, unless there is some real serious movement. I wonder if the elections are playing their toll on the forever campaigning president. There are also a lot of negative ads concerning him, also.

[Zarn]

Okay, Rock, we get that you are a hack. Congrats.

Just say Democratic for now on.

[Zarn]

Hey "true 'Republican,'" why don't you tell me again how conservative the New Jersey Republican electorate is?

You still do not know what happened in that thread.

[Zarn]

The newsweek poll is an obvious outlier, Mr. Cuomo.

A bit like you, then.

I certainly am an outlier here, Mr. Cuomo.  Have you taken a look at the endorsement map on the homepage of Atlas?  It's dominated by Democratic endorsements.  Simply being a Republican makes me an outlier on this left wing dominated site.

But that's not the only thing.  Not being a person who tracks someone's every move on Atlas every second (literally) using the Online Activity board also makes me an outlier from posters like yourself and others.

You seem be confused as to what the term "left wing" means.

I bet you're young. Try not to insult and look for answers (from people of various perspectives).

[Zarn]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +3.

Same old story...

[Zarn]

New Jersey
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 50%

Used to be 47% for both.


Quinnipiac
http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2010/11/poll-watch-quinnipiac-new-jersey.html

[Zarn]

Can you put the disapproval for the numbers as well? Some people put more stock in the disapprovals, and some put equal stock in both. Thank you.

A: 44% -2
D: 48% +2