The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Zarn]

Perhaps, they are still trying to justify why he was elected?

[Zarn]

Gallup (Adults):

58% Approve (-3) (Seems to be the lowest so far)
33% Disaprove (+1)

[Zarn]

Republic, and no he is being blamed for his own faults.

BTW, 53% isn't the number that would vote for him.

[Zarn]

I agree Hawk, because I saw those statistics, too.

Some people are slow learners, and may only be finding out one thing or another, recently. Some may have given him several months grace.

This is also the first day that Obama had a negative number for strongly approve/disaprove. While those aren't as telling as the total number, it does indicate that his opposition is beginning to look as strong or stronger than his current "base."

Then again, we could see Gallup heading back into the other direction with its adults poll, causing us to through our arms up in the air.

[Zarn]

Does anyone have approval info for Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton and Bush Jr from this point in their first term?

According to Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

Jimmy Carter 63% (June 1977)
Ronald Reagan 59% (June 1981)
George H. W. Bush 70% (June 1989)
Bill Clinton 41% (June 1993)
George W. Bush 54% (June 2001)

So it's very stupid to use approvals to guess if a president will be reelected at this point.

It's stupid to say that he will be reelected or won't be reelected.

It's not stupid to guess. The evidence just says it is not likely, given that current trends continue. The people that this hurts the most (given trends continue to the fall and next fall) are freshmen Congressmen, Corzine, and maybe even Deeds.

[Zarn]

even Deeds.

Obama's still doing well in Virginia.  I also don't think Deeds is tied too closely to Obama for it to hurt him unless Obama falls into the 40's.

That's why I said maybe.

pbrower: Again, it's not Iran. You are just making things up.

[Zarn]

Does anyone have approval info for Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton and Bush Jr from this point in their first term?

According to Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

Jimmy Carter 63% (June 1977)
Ronald Reagan 59% (June 1981)
George H. W. Bush 70% (June 1989)
Bill Clinton 41% (June 1993)
George W. Bush 54% (June 2001)

So it's very stupid to use approvals to guess if a president will be reelected at this point.

It's stupid to say that he will be reelected or won't be reelected.

It's not stupid to guess. The evidence just says it is not likely, given that current trends continue. The people that this hurts the most (given trends continue to the fall and next fall) are freshmen Congressmen, Corzine, and maybe even Deeds.

*facepalm*

Instead of being insulting, why don't you just point out what you don't like and why.

There had been many things that you have said that I did not like. Don't expect everyone to agree with you on everything.

[Zarn]

Not at all. All that needs to happen is that he goes up elsewhere, or remains relatively stable elsewhere.

[Zarn]

FWIW, Gallup is back down to 57/35, tying the worst of his presidency.

Romney is obviously going to win in a landslide then I guess. :/

I guess facts scare you, so you have to make extreme claims to make fun of people reporting them...

It's not like he made a stupid map with his information, claiming a landslide for Obama or anyone else.

[Zarn]

Rasmussen Tracking

52% Approve
47% Disapprove

[Zarn]

It's 52%.

Today's Gallup among Adults

58% Approve (-1)
35% Disapprove (+1)

[Zarn]

Rasmussen

52% Approve (+0)
48% Disapprove (+1)
Overall +4 (-1)

Strongly Approve 32% (-1)
Strongly Disapprove 37% (+1)
Overall -5 (-2)

[Zarn]

His approval ratings are looking good in the Northeast.

Given the New Jersey polls over the last few months and trying to excuse personal observation, I would say he is late 50's here, with the likely voter support in the mid 50s. NJ got hit hard, economically, with Corzine not helping matters, so that is pretty much why he isn't in the 60's.

I don't think his approvals will get much lower here, aside from further economic troubles or something blowing up in Obama's face. It will probably rebound, even.

[Zarn]

I'd say his approval rating is in between the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers.

Cop out answer

[Zarn]

I say his approvals will be between 0% and 100%...

I'm sorry. -3. We were looking for -3.

[Zarn]

Gallup is showing higher than just about everyone else. They are the highest on the current RCP by 3 points.

Ras numbers are LV, so that's why they are low. The disapproval rating is higher from the machine polling, as well. I know it's been said before, but for some reason people keep forgetting.

[Zarn]

Gallup is showing higher than just about everyone else. They are the highest on the current RCP by 3 points.

Ras numbers are LV, so that's why they are low. The disapproval rating is higher from the machine polling, as well. I know it's been said before, but for some reason people keep forgetting.

51-49 seems way too low for Obama's approval rating.  I'd say it's around 55-45 right but that's probably a very inaccurate guess on my part.

Rasmussen is good in his election polling, but I'm not so sure about his approval ratings considering the strongly disapprove rating for Bush hovered around 45%, while exit polls showed Bush's approvals significantly lower than those of Rasmussen, so perhaps Obama's disapprovals are too high. Interestingly, his strongly disapproval rating about matches Bush's overall approval rating (post-Katrina, when they really began to hit the tank) so perhaps it's those who remained steadfastly supportive of Bush, who are most hostile to the president

Nope. The ones mostly against him are the ones who think Bush was not much different, in the end.

[Zarn]

What is Louisana, gay?

No, not gay enough.

Sorry about the dreadful pun. It's simply reverting to the pattern that it showed in November 2008.

Obama has been President for six months, and he has yet to face a natural disaster. After all, hurricane season has yet to happen, and the southeastern US always gets at least one. How well will he handle it? I can't imagine him bungling the response any hurricane as badly as Dubya bungled the response to Katrina.

Well, what do you call a Republican that doesn't get a chubby over Palin?

Sane...

[Zarn]

For the record, Bush Jr's approvals on Gallup on  7/19-22/01 were 56/33 and Clinton's on 7/19-21/93 were 41/49. Obama's not doing disastrously bad by comparison, although President Bush's numbers held up through August and then, as we all know, shot up after 9/11.

Screenshot comparisons are always bad. You have to look at the entire pictures.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-presapp0605-31.html

[Zarn]

...Or we can not analyze trends and just see who has the biggest stick up the rear.

[Zarn]

How is spending more right-wing?

[Zarn]

Rasmussen:

Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%

=o

This is funny they probably added all the undecided to the disapprove. Look at these two polls and compare it to Rasmussen.

Gallup

Approve 56%   
Dissaprove 39%

FOX News

Approve 54%
Disaprove 38%   

Rasmussen is likely voters. The others are all adults.

[Zarn]

Rasmussen:

Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%

=o

This is funny they probably added all the undecided to the disapprove. Look at these two polls and compare it to Rasmussen.

Gallup

Approve 56%   
Dissaprove 39%

FOX News

Approve 54%
Disaprove 38%   

Rasmussen is likely voters. The others are all adults.

Rasmussen's "likely voters" screen grossly underestimates the youngest voters. Young voters were strongly Democratic and voted at an unusually-high volume  for youth voters in 2008. Some of Rasmussen's "likely voters" won't vote in 2012 (largely-older voters due to death or senescence); Rasmussen's "likely voters" fails to include voters born between 1990 and 1994.

You are grasping at straws and coming up with nothing.

[Zarn]

There is nothing Republican about trying to figure out who will actually vote.

[Zarn]

Again, your response to a professional pollster is over the top.