2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[It’s so Joever]

What are the chances we're heading to another 2000?

90%

[It’s so Joever]

Georgia margin down to 12,825.

These guys are slow at counting

They’re delaying the invevitable but if you just listened to me it wouldn’t be so difficult.

Maybe, but the fact it’s even this close is a welcome sign.

[It’s so Joever]

I think Georgia is the NH of inverse 2016.
A perpetually lean D (R in this case) state that was closer than expected but will go to the person it was expected to by a few thousand votes.

[It’s so Joever]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

[/b]

but overall didnt Biden do way better than Hillary in TX

The Dallas and Austin suburbs pulled through.

[It’s so Joever]

Houston did not move much left

Oil?

And likely a working class Hispanic swing helped.
Precinct level data will be telling.

[It’s so Joever]

2024 pls!!!!
https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1324448622658965505?s=20

he sounds like a sore loser. Anyway does anyone think Hawley can reach trump's appeal? or is trump a unique character in reaching out to the working class voters. Im not sure if other republicans can replicate trump's success but im not sure

Also Harley is a transparent douche bag with an unbelievably easy to attack record

Hey, don’t insult Harley Rouda like that!

[It’s so Joever]

I remember being a Lujan Grisham for VP shill in June...
If Georgia doesn’t flip, I stand by my assertion then.

[It’s so Joever]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

Kick them off the committee. If they still don't back down, kick them out of the caucus.

House Democrats can take a two seats loss.

Republicans have been attacking progressive Democrats for decades. This predates AOC, Tlaib, etc. It's not like every time a Democrat underperforms it's because of the Progressive Caucus and their tone. All you are doing is tone policing and not actually providing a substantive reason as to why certain House candidates have either lost or underperformed their '18 numbers.

Eh, what there needs to be is consistency.
Either all Democrats should fight back at the “socialist” label as untrue (which it is lol), or should just embrace it and try to shift the window so the word “socialist” isn’t as toxic as it is now.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1324460508263731202

Yessssss, let the party fracturing begin!

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways, if these losers are looking for someone outside of themselves to blame for their electoral performance, why don't they blame Robby Mook? Have no idea how they gave that clown the Majority PAC after 2016's unmitigated embarrassment.

As I’ve said before, I think Hillary’s campaign has been at least somewhat vindicated by the closeness of this election. Despite everything seeming to favor Biden more, despite him correcting basically everything her campaign was criticized for, he still only did slightly better. It’s enough, sure, but it’s not nearly as huge an improvement as you might expect. Pretty clear now that it’s less that Hillary was a bad candidate with a bad campaign and more that Trump just is not easy to beat due to how much he fires up WWC rural voters.

It seems that people didn't want to acknowledge Trump was a genuinely strong candidate in his own right.

yeah trump is so strong that he looks like he is about to lose 2 red states like AZ and GA while Barely winning TX

no other republican in my life time has ever struggled that badly in any those states

You are such a partisan hack at this point it’s outrageous.

[It’s so Joever]

Trump netted 6k votes from Detroit, Biden lost 1k and Trump gained 5k.

Of course.
I have been warning Atlas Dems that inner-city minorities are the likeliest to shift right in voting habits, but no, apparently the Democratic Party will hold them at these current margins forever.

Judging by how Biden’s campaign addressed the concerns over his Latino problem...I am guessing they will just pretend the trend doesn’t exist until it bites them in the *ss.

[It’s so Joever]

So how is Georgia looking?
What are the chances of a flip?
30%, 50%, higher?

[It’s so Joever]

Arizona
https://twitter.com/razingarizona/status/1324489129468456961?s=20

24% (-12%/+12%) swing with respect to the previous margins.
Would be in line with a very narrow Trump victory, according to the table I posted some 20 pages ago.

Better hope those later drops from Maricopa really are more Dem.

Calling Maricopa lean R this election is disingenuous, it’s a Tossup.

[It’s so Joever]

Establishment Republican Party will save itself here by cutting Trump loose.

I hope Trump attacks them for it.
The party split needs to happen, I am already salivating.

[It’s so Joever]

-snip-

That's not gonna happen lmao. Most Democrats got the only thing they wanted. They got rid of the cheeto in the White House. No one will give a sh*t.

1. Man is openly advocating for an authoritarian coup and you’re still acting like it’s some performative wokeness or some s—t to primarily want him out of the White House rather than quite possibly the single most urgent thing in the world.

2. I bet you as much money as will be spent on GA senate seats in the coming weeks that Dems will take it VERY seriously.

I'm actually gonna agree with Alben here. I'm confident we're gonna put up a hell of a fight for the runoffs, and spending is gonna be off the charts. Even without Trump on the ballot, both Ossoff and Warnock are well liked and Loeffler is despised.

Wow...another former presidential doomer -> Georgia Senate optimist.
I thought I was the only one!

[It’s so Joever]

Trump has told people he has no plans to concede.
From CNN's Kaitlan Collins

In conversations with allies in recent days, President Trump has said he has no intention to concede the election to Joe Biden, even if his path to a second term in office is effectively blocked by losses in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Aides, including his chief of staff Mark Meadows, have not attempted to bring Trump to terms of what’s happening and have instead fed his baseless claim that the election is being stolen from him.

Trump’s allies have grown concerned that someone is going to have to reckon with the President that his time in office is potentially coming to an end, though they have not decided who should be the one to do it. There has been talk of potentially Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump doing so, sources said.

Please try to stay in office.

[It’s so Joever]

Dear CraneHusband, congrats on your wing being unable to message basic policies that otherwise would appeal to literally 60% of Americans because of repeated insistence on stupid slogans such as ACAB, Democratic-socialism, and purity tests.

Dear Blairite, congrats on your wing being stuck in the 90’s and having the most tone-deaf platform out of anyone in 2020. Also congrats on not being able to pass anything since 2010 and on falsely believing on compromise when the Overton window keeps shifting right because your wing is too spineless to stand up for its ideas.

And to both of your wings, congrats on alienating millions of Americans by engaging in the stupid cultural wars and not focusing on the economic issues which affect Americans the most.

[It’s so Joever]

Wow...if Trump wins PA after all of this...

[It’s so Joever]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

Biden 2021.

Anyways the answer is probably Ford. Carter will come after Biden...and will get to end with a recession and a severe environmental crisis.
Fear/savor the year 2028, folks.

[It’s so Joever]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

Biden 2021.

Anyways the answer is probably Ford. Carter will come after Biden...and will get to end with a recession and a severe environmental crisis.
Fear/savor the year 2028, folks.

Who would be Carter?

Hm....a low profile former/current governor of the South of 2020 (I would argue it’s the Interior West)
Tough to say though. I bet we won’t know until 2023.

[It’s so Joever]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

Biden 2021.

Anyways the answer is probably Ford. Carter will come after Biden...and will get to end with a recession and a severe environmental crisis.
Fear/savor the year 2028, folks.

Who would be Carter?

Hm....a former Southern governor from a Southern State who runs as an outsider and a contrast to the Biden administration (which isn’t corrupt but weak and ineffective)
If they can recover from Covid backlash, maybe Abbott or DeSantis?
I also could see Rick Scott, but at this point early on it’s too hard to tell.

You've got it all wrong, here's the pattern:

FDR Reagan Biden
Truman Bush
Eisenhower Clinton
JFK and LBJ Bush
Nixon/Ford Obama
Carter Trump

Lol firstly I changed my passage, secondly I doubt Biden is Roosevelt 1933, quote me on this in a few years if you want.

[It’s so Joever]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

I don't expect 2016 and 2020 suburban trends to continue in 2024.  The downballot races this year show that people have overestimated the extent to which the suburbs were revolting against Republicans.  Rather, they were simply turning against Donald Trump himself.

Weren't you the one who said that Trump would hold Oklahoma County? You turned out to be correct, and it's clear that the suburbs aren't gone for the Republicans. Indeed, they flipped back a number of suburban districts, such as SC-01 and OK-05, and came close in a few others (i.e. IL-14).

I just have a really terrible suspicion that many suburban areas (but not all like NOVA) will snap back to the pubs a bit while white non-college voters stay where they are.

I still believe the suburbs will shift left relative to the nation in 2024. I think people are overestimating how much they will flip back “post-Trump”. Best case scenario at all costs is that some of the suburbs in cities which aren’t economically based on tech and/or scientific research will flip back like before. The suburbs are not the same as they were in 2014 and the people inhabiting the suburbs has slowly changed over time.

Just because Houston didn’t turn into a mega-titanium D NUT county doesn’t mean Dems have peaked in the suburbs yet, especially not the ones in cities such as Denver and Atlanta.

[It’s so Joever]

So in regards to those Georgia military ballots...

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324868110529277958?s=19

Trump is not as popular among servicemembers as people think AND a lot of us don’t vote because of the hassle associated with requesting and returning military absentee ballots.

Their job is war and Trump did more to end war then any president of the past 80 years.

Correction, their job is being committed towards protecting the values of our country. For all your veneration of police officers, the military are the biggest patriots of them all. Unlike the police officers in many areas, these servicemen go through a rigorous training process and are held to international law. They aren't perfect, but they are damn better than the trumpist keyboard warriors who have never done a damn thing for this country in their life. Military still skews Republican afaik, but they swung heavy against the traitor in office this year, unlike some self-proclaimed but fake patriots.

Besides, do you think the military does not exist during times of peace?
Do you think people join the military because they want to bomb some Iraqis for fun?
If so, apply the same damn standards to the police you worship or shut the f**k up.

[It’s so Joever]

One more thing I'd like to add about NV. In PA, the Republican legislature (rightly) got blamed for not allowing mail votes to be processed ahead of time, although Wolf really should have issued an executive order. But NV is a Democratic trifecta.

Nevada is just a joke tier state. Let's be honest, it's only good for alcohol, stealing money from gambling addicts, and as a nuclear waste dumping ground.

[It’s so Joever]

So I’m reading Biden might actually win the military vote outright?!

WOW if so. The polls showed it but it’s still hard to believe it might actually be happening.

Guess people don’t like being called “suckers and losers” for serving their country. Who would have thought?

It's hard to know for sure, but from a quick scan, nearly all major military counties definitely swung to Biden. 3 even outright flipped. The only ones which didn't swing left that I saw were Honolulu (probably had more to do with the unfortunate AAPI swing for Trump) and Johnson, MO. It seems many of the Johnson voters in the military in 2016 went to Biden this time around.