2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

PHILADELPHIA FREEDOM

[Ferguson97]

PENNSYLVANIA!!!!!!!!!1

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

What an insane election though. I know we said the same thing about 2000 and 2016, but 2020 is even crazier.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've seen enough (actually I've seen enough for two days, but wanted to wait until Biden had the lead in PA).  Joe Biden is elected President of the United States.

[pppolitics]

Pennsylvania flipped

[Roll Roons]

Song of the moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNqsfFUwhY

[Alben Barkley]

Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What an insane election though. I know we said the same thing about 2000 and 2016, but 2020 is even crazier.

For once I would agree with you. What a wild, wild ride. But there's no community I'd rather have experienced it with than the Talk Elections blog.

[ultraviolet]

Is anyone going to call it now?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324711286882684935

[ugabug]

To be honest, THIS is how I'm feeling given how my stocks have fared ever since it became clear Biden won:

LOL at Trumplets who insisted Biden winning would crash the market.

I'm feeling more like Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men with the coin toss scene. Call it!

[Crumpets]

Welp, that looks like it's the ballgame.

[SunSt0rm]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324710866516905984

[President Johnson]

SCRANTON JOE

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324711201646018560?s=19

[ajc0918]

PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN

[pppolitics]

Stop counting the votes!

Now that Biden is ahead, no point in counting anymore.

[Pick Up the Phone]

It’s over. Just call this election and declare Biden president-elect.

[Kuumo]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324710866516905984

OOOOHHHHHHH YEEAAAAHHHHH!!!!!

[Illiniwek]

WE DID IT FAM!!!!!!

PRESIDENT JOSEPH ROBINETTE BIDEN!!!

[Kalimantan]

What does Georgia's flip say about North Carolina?

It was SUPPOSED to be the next Virginia.

Turns out, that may be Georgia instead...

Is the implication simply that Dems do better in any state where a large part of their population is part of an exceptionally large metro area???

Interesting theory, let's see:
Arizona is heavily Phoenix and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Colorado is somewhat heavily Denver and suburbs. Went Democratic.
Delware is heavily New Castle County. Went Democratic
Georgia is heavily Atlanta and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Illinois is heavily Chicago and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Massachusetts is somewhat heavily Boston and suburbs. Went Democratic
Michigan is somewhat heavily Detroit and suburbs. Went Democratic
Minnesota is heavily Minneapolis/St Paul and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Nevada is heavily Las Vegas and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
New York is heavily New York City (and suburbs) Went Democratic (though the suburbs on Long Island seem to be offside.)
Oregon is heavily Portland and suburbs. Went Democratic
Pennsylvania is increasingly Philadelphia and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
Washington is heavily Seattle and suburbs. Went Democratic

You may be on to something here.

Oklahoma? Alaska? Nebraska? Kentucky? South Dakota? All have a greater % of pop in their largest city than Georgia (or MA, MI, DE for that matter)

Order is 1. New York, 2. Alaska 3. New Mexico, followed by IL, NV, AZ, NE, then something like SD, OR, OK, RI, KY

Fair point with Anchorage and suburbs, but as for the rest of your point, how could you not notice the analysis is based on the metro areas, the major city AND its suburbs?  I did after all write "and its suburbs" every time.

Go back and look at all those other states based on metro areas as a percentage of population.  Louisville and its suburbs are approximately 1/6 of the population of Kentucky.  Omaha and it's suburbs are slightly over 1/3 the population of Nebraska.  Oklahoma City and its suburbs are about 1/5 the population of Oklahoma.

In all the states I mentioned, its major metro area comprises at least close to half the population of the state. (I think it's over 50% in all cases but Philadelphia and maybe Detroit.)

Its OK, I'm not here for a row absolutely know what you mean about metro areas and I couldn't find that data, just biggest city data - hence even though Minnesota doesn't show up on biggest city stats it certainly will on metros. And yeah, I never quite realised how massive that atlanta metro area is. It actually makes you wonder how its taken the Dems so long to be competitive in the state.

Louisiana was actually the first state that came up as a counter to your point, 1.3m people in a state of 4.5, about a third so I guess not. But Oklahoma could be fairly sure that if the Dems could dominate the city they would win the state. Wikipedia has Oklahoma -Shawnee metro at 1.5m people in state of 3.9m, so way more than a 1/5, so pull a Philly or San Francisco there and Tulsa will get you over the line. (obviously that just theoretical)

For Atlanta, official metro pop is 6m, but a lot of that is quite rural, wiki defined the urban metro-Atlanta pop as 4.5m, similar proportion of the states pop as OKC (but obvs some of OKC-Shawnee is small towns too). Anyway interesting to look at.

*edit - oh look we just won while I was typing that*

Good days

[Zache]

So who's gonna be the first network to call it? Betting CNN.

[Ferguson97]

PRESIDENT-ELECT JOE BIDEN

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324711201646018560?s=19

Trump & Co. are just annoying trolls at this point.

[Horus]

The four year national nightmare, disgrace and embarrassment is about to end. Far closer than it should've been, but good won out.