Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20
what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

and what does it all have to do with attacks on his candidacy?

Recently, it refers less to the year itself than the New York Times 1619 Project, a series of essays that ran last year arguing that slavery and racism is the central force of all of American history.

[Brittain33]

Crenshaw’s a dishonest grifter but he’s better at producing entertainment than the others.

[Brittain33]

100,000 seems like it's pushing it. NYT has Perdue 763 votes ahead of Trump. Granted, for some reason they have more votes counted for President than Senate (not sure if this is undervote or just a reporting quirk: NYT says Pres is at 100% in but Senate is at 99% in), but going off percentages I would guess that there are about 20,000 of these voters tops. That's certainly enough to swing a close election, but I don't think there's this huge mythical group of split ticket voters.

What if there are tens of thousands of low-information Trump voters who didn’t bother to vote for Senate? That would allow for a large number of Biden-Purdue voters.

[Brittain33]

100,000 seems like it's pushing it. NYT has Perdue 763 votes ahead of Trump. Granted, for some reason they have more votes counted for President than Senate (not sure if this is undervote or just a reporting quirk: NYT says Pres is at 100% in but Senate is at 99% in), but going off percentages I would guess that there are about 20,000 of these voters tops. That's certainly enough to swing a close election, but I don't think there's this huge mythical group of split ticket voters.

What if there are tens of thousands of low-information Trump voters who didn’t bother to vote for Senate? That would allow for a large number of Biden-Purdue voters.

I guess that could be it, but from a cursory glance at the data I see more evidence of Biden voters not voting for senate than Trump voters, and in the absence of such evidence I would hesitate to say that there were enough of them to make up that 80k gap.

Isn't it possible that lots of Trump voters didn't vote for Senate, some Biden voters didn't vote for Senate, and a large number of Biden voters voted for Purdue?

[Brittain33]

I refuse to get my hopes up

[Brittain33]

Loeffler took more than $28,000 in donations from family who's company hired illegal immigrants and got fined for it.

Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who has maintained a strong anti-illegal immigration stance during her short tenure in office, has raised tens of thousands of dollars for her Georgia Senate runoff campaign from donors linked to a family owned company that was forced to pay out more than $95 million in fines for unlawful immigration practices and alleged hiring discrimination, disclosure records show.

Between late November and early December, Loeffler's campaign received more than $28,000 in contributions from at least 11 members of the Asplundh family, according to new campaign finance reports filed to the Federal Election Commission. The Asplundh family owns and operates the large, privately held Asplundh Tree Expert Company, which has done work for the U.S. Department of Energy.

In 2017, the Pennsylvania-based tree-trimming and vegetation management company had to pay the largest civil settlement ever levied by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement after a yearslong investigation resulted in the company pleading guilty to "unlawfully employing aliens." Additionally, in January 2019, Asplundh agreed to pay $55,000 in back wages to settle hiring discrimination allegations stemming from one of its facilities in Georgia.

None of the donations to Loeffler from the family members properly listed their association with the company as required by the FEC, and instead, the Loeffler campaign wrote under the employer and occupation sections: "INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS."

Can we hold her accountable for this? She’s raised enormous amounts of money, she can’t possibly check every person who donates.

[Brittain33]

If 2020 means anything (I know it's 2021, whatever) we should all expect record-breaking African-American turnout and a record share of the electorate and Perdue and Loeffler still winning by a larger than expected margin. That's just how this year goes. Yes, I know this is a useless post.

[Brittain33]

If 2020 means anything (I know it's 2021, whatever) we should all expect record-breaking African-American turnout and a record share of the electorate and Perdue and Loeffler still winning by a larger than expected margin. That's just how this year goes. Yes, I know this is a useless post.

It's also an incorrect post. African Americans had the lowest share of the electorate in a long time in Georgia in 2020. Only 27%. I think it was the lowest since 2006.

I'm sorry, of course you're correct about what happened in November 2020, but what I meant by that was "2020 was a terrible year, so Democrats are probably going to get this heartbreaking scenario in the runoff because we can't have nice things," not that 2020 provides a model where there was exceptional African-American turnout as a share of the total in Georgia.

[Brittain33]

This has to be fake news, right? This is his one chance to be Majority Leader, he can't be that stupid to just let it slip. On the other hand, money doesn't matter anymore it seems, if this is true.
"Now, after the party performed poorly in down-ballot races, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is no longer meeting with donors, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Schumer is "pessimistic" about Warnock and Ossoff's chances in Georgia next week and doesn't want to ruin donor relationships, the source adds."
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/ossoff-warnock-warn-about-running-low-funds-seek-last-minute-n1252413

I think McConnell’s thinking about how to hobble an economic recovery under Biden.

[Brittain33]

If Democrats win these runoffs and therefore get a Senate majority, their Senate majority will be because:

-Republicans flunked WV and MT senate races in 2018
-Martha McSally
-Narrowly flipping NH-Sen in 2016 and actually investing despite it seeming uncompetitive at first
-2 special elections in 2020
-A runoffs law put back into place by Republicans that was designed to help boost their chances of winning

..and not because a sizable majority of Americans live in states that lean Democrat.

[Brittain33]

If Democrats win these runoffs and therefore get a Senate majority, their Senate majority will be because:

-Republicans flunked WV and MT senate races in 2018
-Martha McSally
-Narrowly flipping NH-Sen in 2016 and actually investing despite it seeming uncompetitive at first
-2 special elections in 2020
-A runoffs law put back into place by Republicans that was designed to help boost their chances of winning

They also flunked FL in 2018 and NC in 2020.

I feel much less bad about FL 2018 after seeing FL 2020. Dems didn’t deserve to hold that seat, even in a Trump midterm.

[Brittain33]

The reason I am so skeptical of the polls showing ossof and warnock up by high single digits is that we have an election to compare those numbers to. Biden won by 0.3 in GA, Perdue won by 2 with that same electorate.

And, while the EV does show dems doing slightly better than the EV in November, it doesn’t suggest a +7 D race at all.

Sometimes, the top lines of polls are enough to discredit them. Who are all these people switching from Perdue to ossof since November?

It’s not necessarily switching. As the number of voters shrinks, it could be that proportionally more Biden-Perdue voters skip the runoff than Biden-Ossoff voters, changing the composition of the Biden electorate. (I have no reason to believe it’s happening, but we don’t need people to switch to get this kind of change.

[Brittain33]

Not sure how McConnell thinks blocking the $2K aid will help Perdue/Loeffler. Warnock/Ossoff can continue to slam the GOP as out of touch, and the GOP not willing to give any more aid.

McConnell is more concerned about the sure bet of delaying economic recovery under President Biden vs. the maybe of helping Loeffler and Perdue with this $2k aid when it's not clear they will need or benefit from the move.

[Brittain33]

This is now the megathread for:

• Discussion of Georgia senate seats runoff(s)
• Comments about Young Kim campaigning with David Perdue

Feel free to post the latter in this thread instead of starting new threads.

[Brittain33]

How is Trump going to handle this at his rally?

[Brittain33]

Funfact: More voters who didn't vote in the 2020 GE have voted in these runoffs thus far than people who voted on e-day in the GE.

Seriously? I find that hard to believe. What are the numbers?

[Brittain33]

Funfact: More voters who didn't vote in the 2020 GE have voted in these runoffs thus far than people who voted on e-day in the GE.

Seriously? I find that hard to believe. What are the numbers?

There are 104527 voters who didn't vote in the 2020 GE who have voted in these runoffs

There are 96039 voters who voted on e-day in the GE who have voted thus far in these runoffs.

Oh, I misunderstood - I read that as people who voted in the 2020 GE on E-day, total.

[Brittain33]

Are we allowed to believe in Predictit now that it has Warnock winning and Ossoff catching up?

[Brittain33]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

Maybe his dad saw this tweet

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1345889577899356162?s=21

What evidence do we actually have that Perdue did well with black farmers in the South?

If this is true, it should show up in county results relative to Biden.

[Brittain33]

Biden team preparing for a loss, although not giving up hope.

I think adopting this frame of mind will get me through the next few days without breaking my heart.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/05/biden-transition-georgia-senate-454928

[Brittain33]

I feel like high election day turnout is a necessary, but perhaps not sufficient condition for a Republican victory.

Welcome to Atlas! I think this is exactly right.

[Brittain33]

From this morning's WaPo Republican expectations-setting article:

“With the Trump factor, if we lose by one or two points, I won't be shocked.”

That sounds bullish for a Republican - like they expect to win narrowly, but see the range of outcomes dipping into a narrow loss.

[Brittain33]

When is the earliest Ossoff and Warnock can be sworn in? Because maybe that bitch Loeffler won't even get a chance to commit treason. But I suppose Ossoff and Warnock will need to be ready to fly to DC tonight

Fixed that for you.

No, you did not. She is a bitch and more

I'm not going to infract anyone, but I agree with BudgieForce here and find this way of describing a woman not much different from using a racial slur to describe an ethnic minority, and encourage people to keep that in mind, especially as this forum is overwhelmingly male.

[Brittain33]

Temporarily locking thread for a clean up. Back up shortly.

Done. Discussion of the comment above has been moved to Forum Community (and if that's not the right location, the mod there can move it again.) Let's not let this get in the way of a busy election day thread.

[Brittain33]

Temporary lock

Unlocked. This thread is the center of U.S. politics on Atlas for the next several hours at least and people want updates on Georgia. If you feel conversations drifting into Trumpworld, personalities, or other states, fight it and stay on topic.