Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[tagimaucia]

So does anyone on here know if polling in GA is normally off or wrong when it comes to runoffs elections


so far the dems are heading into the election with a polling lead but I again I have not idea about the accuracy of polling when it comes to GA runoffs so I'm not sure if it will matter in the end

The polling was very bad (underestimated the Republican by a lot) for the runoff in 2008, but that's ancient history and that ended up having fairly low turnout, which is not the case this year.  I don't know if there was any polling for the secretary of state race in 18.

[Hope For A New Era]

Well, today we find out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just a reminder:

1. All of this "there's a long line here" and a "short line here" is very anecdotal evidence and doesn't mean much until we actually get numbers. Maybe one polling station is just slower.

2. E-day voting, while it generally favors the GOP, still favors Democrats in some parts of the state

3. There's no set turnout at which the GOP loses or wins the election. They seem to have a bigger vote deficit RN than they did in Nov, so an e-day vote simillar in magnitude to that of the GE doesn't automatically mean a win, far from it. Even Trump net fewer votes than it seems like Perdue and Loeffler will need in order to win back in Nov. Maybe they need a turnout of only 750k but maybe they need a turnout of 1.4 million; we just don't know

For reference; this was how the e-day vote broke in Nov:

[wbrocks67]

Just for funsies, since we all love the anecdotal evidence

https://twitter.com/ReporterBlayne/status/1346430133889081345

[tagimaucia]

I'm very excited for this to be version 2.0 of the 2017 Virginia governors race thread, where on every other page someone decides a different side is going to win in a landslide based on an anecdotal turnout tweet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm very excited for this to be version 2.0 of the 2017 Virginia governors race thread, where every on other page someone decides a different side is going to win in a landslide based on an anecdotal turnout tweet.

Sadly, there is no rain in NoGA today.

[ProgressiveModerate]

BTW- Does anyone know which counties Biden won with Election Day voters only?

^^ Look at 4 posts before this one ^^

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm very excited for this to be version 2.0 of the 2017 Virginia governors race thread, where on every other page someone decides a different side is going to win in a landslide based on an anecdotal turnout tweet.

Ahh my favorite was a "political science expert" who said that exit polls didn't look good for Northam....at midday. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/1346268234308345861

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1346432898094788608

[KaiserDave]

At my polling location in Cobb County.  I’m about the 30th person in line.  Line is about the same length as it was on Election Day in November.

Proudly casting my vote for Perdue and Loeffler!  Time for Georgia to redeem itself and save AMERICA!

Just come out and say that you’re a supporter of fascism in America and that you want an end to American democracy.

It's not like if her opponent was a Castro loving extremist, who hates his own country (You can't serve God and being a military), who (at best) is prejudicied against whites, and who happen to be by the way a wife beater.

Democrats would have been better off had they recruited a scandal free candidate (someone like McBath for example) than this dude.

Please stick to prognostication. Along with "Harris wants to send me to a gulag" it's not pretty.

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Sulliview/status/1346446961768075266

Hallelujah!

[Blair]

Was just about to ask how/when we'll be able to have a guess at the final result; iirc (it might be a false memory) the damn NYT needle had Georgia going democratic before other states.

[tagimaucia]

I think the NYT needle flipped to Biden in GA around midnight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think the NYT needle flipped to Biden in GA around midnight.

Just after midnight:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1323855032207450113

[Brittain33]

From this morning's WaPo Republican expectations-setting article:

“With the Trump factor, if we lose by one or two points, I won't be shocked.”

That sounds bullish for a Republican - like they expect to win narrowly, but see the range of outcomes dipping into a narrow loss.

[Tender Branson]

Any updated early voting report (mail ballots) ?

[Motorcity]

When is the earliest Ossoff and Warnock can be sworn in? Because maybe Loeffler won't even get a chance to commit treason. But I suppose Ossoff and Warnock will need to be ready to fly to DC tonight

[Tender Branson]

When is the earliest Ossoff and Warnock can be sworn in? Because maybe that bitch Loeffler won't even get a chance to commit treason. But I suppose Ossoff and Warnock will need to be ready to fly to DC tonight

If they win by 2-3% or so somehow (with no recount), probably in 10-15 days.

That’s what it takes in GA to certify results in a normal election ...

[compucomp]

When is the earliest Ossoff and Warnock can be sworn in? Because maybe that bitch Loeffler won't even get a chance to commit treason. But I suppose Ossoff and Warnock will need to be ready to fly to DC tonight

I suspect if Loeffler is clearly headed towards a loss tonight, she won't object tomorrow as it will do no good for her at that point. I think she's not a true believer and her promise was a pure pandering ploy to the MAGA crowd.

Edit: Also, if she needs vote count shenanigans from Raffersperger and Kemp to win, embarrassing them in from of the world by saying they certified fraudulent results for November is not the way to get their support.

[tagimaucia]

Any updated early voting report (mail ballots) ?

Just saw that there are about 24.5k newly reported mail ballots from DeKalb/Fulton/Cobb/Gwinnett alone.

[Tender Branson]

Any updated early voting report (mail ballots) ?

Just saw that there are about 24.5k newly reported mail ballots from DeKalb/Fulton/Cobb/Gwinnett alone.

I want statewide !

[wbrocks67]

Any updated early voting report (mail ballots) ?

Just saw that there are about 24.5k newly reported mail ballots from DeKalb/Fulton/Cobb/Gwinnett alone.

I want statewide !

Nothing yet from Michael Mcdonald/GeorgiaVotes, but sometimes they don't update till 10-11am EST

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/1346268234308345861

I mean, first of all, no one expected Dems to do enough "to put it away", nor would they, I don't even think it's possible in GA, so that's a stupid statement. We really don't know how much they won the early vote by, so we don't know what would even be 'unreasonable' for Rep E-day turnout at this point. We can guesstimate, but it's not full proof

[Motorcity]

When is the earliest Ossoff and Warnock can be sworn in? Because maybe that bitch Loeffler won't even get a chance to commit treason. But I suppose Ossoff and Warnock will need to be ready to fly to DC tonight

If they win by 2-3% or so somehow (with no recount), probably in 10-15 days.

That’s what it takes in GA to certify results in a normal election ...

Well, if they can get sworn by the 20th I am ok. Moscow Mitch should be minority leader at the inauguration.