Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Matty]

AJC is a center-left, or at least anti-trump, paper.

I find it extremely hard to believe they would sit on a poll because they think it would be an outlier.

respected papers don't do that. The story is either outright false, or the newspaper discovered some error in methodology.

Why would they risk publishing a poll that has an out-there result? Look at how much flack WaPo got for their WI Biden +17% poll. There's much less reward for if they are the outlier that calls it right, and most outliers are wrong too.

I actually respect pollsters that publish outlier results, It's called putting it out there.

fox news put out a doug jones +10 poll right before special election 2017.

[7,052,770]

For those confident a 51-50 senate can pass a public option, Connecticut. yes, Connecticut, recently saw its state senate kill the bill.

Health insurance lobby is powerful as hell. Dirty truth, but its the truth.

Already on Stage 3 (bargaining) I see.

[Pericles]

AJC is a center-left, or at least anti-trump, paper.

I find it extremely hard to believe they would sit on a poll because they think it would be an outlier.

respected papers don't do that. The story is either outright false, or the newspaper discovered some error in methodology.

Why would they risk publishing a poll that has an out-there result? Look at how much flack WaPo got for their WI Biden +17% poll. There's much less reward for if they are the outlier that calls it right, and most outliers are wrong too.

I actually respect pollsters that publish outlier results, It's called putting it out there.

fox news put out a doug jones +10 poll right before special election 2017.

Unfortunately most people don't think the same way, and then complain about the polling errors that herding helps produce.

[Matty]

I feel like if pollsters shelving results is some common practice, we would hear about it a lot more from leaks. Alas, we don't.

this has the appearance of a predictit pump n dump hoax.

[Gracile]

I don't think we should put much stock in that alleged poll. If it was held back, then it probably indicates some methodological issues or some other problem with their sample.

[Matty]

I don't think we should put much stock in that alleged poll. If it was held back, then it probably indicates some methodological issues or some other problem with their sample.

yep. A +6 dem poll isn't even the most outlier poll there is right now for ga senate.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

AJC releases poll showing both Dems up 5%
- "Sorry, not buying it. Would love to be proven wrong though"
- "Junk poll"
- "Clearly an outlier"
- "Don't get my hopes up"
- "What's with the lack of credible pollsters this election?"

AJC doesn't release a poll showing both Dems up 5%
- "Sorry, not buying it. Would love to be proven wrong though"
- "Junk story"
- "Clearly bogus"
- "Don't get my hopes up"
- "What's with the lack of credible news outlets this election?"

[Frenchrepublican]

My prediction for how tomorrow will go:

-There are a lot of reports about the in person vote throughout the day that a bunch of people post in this thread and latch on to too much

-Polls close, and no one has the clear advantage for the first hour

-Northern GA which has lagged in turnout ends up having medicore turnout for the GOP, but they’ve sustained their margins

-Atlanta takes a long time to count, but while the margins in some counties are underwhelming turnout is strong

-The “black belt” is notably strong for Democrats

-Democrats perform “eh” in a lot of the midsized cities.

-South rural white GA is just fine for the GOP; nothing notable

At first everyone says Perdue and Loefeller are favored, only to then say Warnock and Osoff are favored, and just willy nilly switch back and forth until someone is clearly favored. A bunch of notorious Atlas partisans will continue to make case for their canidates until it’s clear as day they have no chance of winning

We know by Wednesday morning who will win, even if the networks haven’t officially called the races

I currently think it’ll be Perdue + 4 and Loefeller + 2, which would probably make this a very boring and disappointing senate cycle, at least from the perspective of a Democrat, though that’s my gut, my brain and Excel say otherwise

While the races are tossup, I think whoever wins wins by slightly more than most of Atlas suspects

Could you explain your reasoning ? Because if I understand your model republicans should have some reasons to be worried

[SCNCmod]

I hope we see a lot of voters under 65 at the polls today- and hopefully many under 30.  If I'm not mistaken, the over 65 % of the Early Vote is a decent amount higher than November.  This is the one stat that is my biggest worry regarding the EV, which otherwise appears to be good for Dems.

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/brand_allen/status/1343636114716942337

The NYTimes reported that AJC was polling a few weeks ago, so it does seem likely they spiked a poll. The why is the big question. I assume that they could have simply had legitimate methodological errors and not had the budget to redo it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

YOOOOOOOO, I can’t sleep, I got Georgia on my mind

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1344846289427599362

Does anyone know if there has been any commentary or counter-messaging to this ad?

Also- is the ad running anywhere other than Newsmax?

[SCNCmod]

In some ways- Loeffler & Perdue were smart to wait until the very last minute to call for Senators to vote against certification of the Presidential election (even though the position itself is idiotic), because it gives Dems less time to expose their position to Republican Biden voters who would likely have a problem with it.

But have Ossoff & Warnock done anything overnight to potentially exploit their position (to moderate Election Day voters)?  ... or is this something they are probably naturally aware of via local media, social media, etc?

[Adam Griffin]

Anybody want to tell me what the hell is going on in Cherokee County? I really thought income would be a big factor overall (and it is) but geez. Are half the "Stop the Steal" voters living in Woodstock (Forsyth doesn't look that great either)?

[wbrocks67]

In some ways- Loeffler & Perdue were smart to wait until the very last minute to call for Senators to vote against certification of the Presidential election (even though the position itself is idiotic), because it gives Dems less time to expose their position to Republican Biden voters who would likely have a problem with it.

But have Ossoff & Warnock done anything overnight to potentially exploit their position (to moderate Election Day voters)?  ... or is this something they are probably naturally aware of via local media, social media, etc?

See, maybe I'm wrong, but I think most people realize where Loeffler/Perdue's heads are at. Like, I don't think there are many people who think both of them are still ~moderate~. IF you're voting for the two of them, you knew this was going to be their position.

Meanwhile, it seems very likely AJC kicked their poll, as it was confirmed that it was in the field and then we have multiple sources confirming results. If this *does* happen to be a big Dem win, they are going to look very foolish.

[wbrocks67]

AJC is a center-left, or at least anti-trump, paper.

I find it extremely hard to believe they would sit on a poll because they think it would be an outlier.

respected papers don't do that. The story is either outright false, or the newspaper discovered some error in methodology.

AJC is not really either of those things, and as far as I know, they are the most trusted paper in Atlanta. It's not some anti-Trump rag.

[wbrocks67]

Also my god, Loeffler "ANNOUNCING" at the rally last night her intentions with the electoral congress vote. So cringe.

[Buzz]

At my polling location in Cobb County.  I’m about the 30th person in line.  Line is about the same length as it was on Election Day in November.

Proudly casting my vote for Perdue and Loeffler!  Time for Georgia to redeem itself and save AMERICA!

[Cassandra]

Anybody want to tell me what the hell is going on in Cherokee County? I really thought income would be a big factor overall (and it is) but geez. Are half the "Stop the Steal" voters living in Woodstock (Forsyth doesn't look that great either)?

That's where rednecks with a little bit of money like to live. I have a government construction job and a lot of my coworkers live there.

[SCNCmod]

Also my god, Loeffler "ANNOUNCING" at the rally last night her intentions with the electoral congress vote. So cringe.

Something about Ivanka's couple minute talk was a bit offputting as well.

[Brittain33]

Biden team preparing for a loss, although not giving up hope.

I think adopting this frame of mind will get me through the next few days without breaking my heart.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/05/biden-transition-georgia-senate-454928

[wbrocks67]

Biden team preparing for a loss, although not giving up hope.

I think adopting this frame of mind will get me through the next few days without breaking my heart.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/05/biden-transition-georgia-senate-454928

I mean even if they were expecting to win, they're not going to say it and get ahead of themselves

[wbrocks67]

Anybody want to tell me what the hell is going on in Cherokee County? I really thought income would be a big factor overall (and it is) but geez. Are half the "Stop the Steal" voters living in Woodstock (Forsyth doesn't look that great either)?

That's where rednecks with a little bit of money like to live. I have a government construction job and a lot of my coworkers live there.

Can someone explain what any of this means to someone who doesn't live in GA? Are these counties that have high participation and are Biden or Trump counties?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

At my polling location in Cobb County.  I’m about the 30th person in line.  Line is about the same length as it was on Election Day in November.

Proudly casting my vote for Perdue and Loeffler!  Time for Georgia to redeem itself and save AMERICA!

I get voting for Loeffler, but seriously man, how could anyone be proud of that lmfao, that would be like a dem saying they are proud to vote for bob menendez or some sh-t like that

[VAR]

At my polling location in Cobb County.  I’m about the 30th person in line.  Line is about the same length as it was on Election Day in November.

Proudly casting my vote for Perdue and Loeffler!  Time for Georgia to redeem itself and save AMERICA!

I get voting for Loeffler, but seriously man, how could anyone be proud of that lmfao, that would be like a dem saying they are proud to vote for bob menendez or some sh-t like that