2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

can someone do an idiots guide to the remaining Georgia counties?

Among those with >1000 ballots left:
Chatham and Gwinnett: Very Blue, maybe Biden +40 in the VBMs
Fulton and Clayton: Overwhelmingly Blue, maybe Biden +80
Forsyth, Harris, Laurens: Very Red, but probably close to a draw in the VBMs

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's absurd to blame "socialism" for Biden's (and the Democrats') failures among Latinos.  If Latinos were uniquely averse to "socialism", they wouldn't have overwhelmingly voted for Bernie in the primary.

The reason Biden failed among Latinos is that he made almost no effort to appeal to Latinos in either his presentation or policy focus.  Choosing Harris as a running mate was a huge mistake in this sense.  Say what you will about Tim Kaine's other weaknesses, but at least he spoke fluent Spanish and would frequent give speeches on the campaign trail in Spanish.

Moreover, this biggest moral crimes committed by the Trump administration throughout the term were on immigration.  Yet Biden almost entirely ignored this issue in favor of a focus on covid and BLM issues.  How can the communities most personally affected by Trump's immigration atrocities fail to notice this?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Judas Van Drew winning is probably the single most disappointing/infuriating result of the entire election. Against a Kennedy, too. MillennialModerate will REALLY be in shambles if that happens AND Georgia goes for Joe though.

Why do you believe Van Drew won his race?  He's up 4 points with only 75% of the vote counted, and we already know how VBMs shift the race.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's absurd to blame "socialism" for Biden's (and the Democrats') failures among Latinos.  If Latinos were uniquely averse to "socialism", they wouldn't have overwhelmingly voted for Bernie in the primary.

The reason Biden failed among Latinos is that he made almost no effort to appeal to Latinos in either his presentation or policy focus.  Choosing Harris as a running mate was a huge mistake in this sense.  Say what you will about Tim Kaine's other weaknesses, but at least he spoke fluent Spanish and would frequent give speeches on the campaign trail in Spanish.

Moreover, this biggest moral crimes committed by the Trump administration throughout the term were on immigration.  Yet Biden almost entirely ignored this issue in favor of a focus on covid and BLM issues.  How can the communities most personally affected by Trump's immigration atrocities fail to notice this?

It's all about the trade. In that sense, sure maybe. But Harris also seemed to help turbocharge turnout in the cities and with black voters.

Biden already was the candidate of choice for black voters. He's the one who turbocharged black turnout, not Harris.  If they wanted Harris, they would have supported Harris in this primary.  According to polls, Harris has lower favorability among black voters than Biden himself.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Judas Van Drew winning is probably the single most disappointing/infuriating result of the entire election. Against a Kennedy, too. MillennialModerate will REALLY be in shambles if that happens AND Georgia goes for Joe though.

Why do you believe Van Drew won his race?  He's up 4 points with only 75% of the vote counted, and we already know how VBMs shift the race.

Jersey was mostly VBM this year, with in-person ballots being considered provisional and not being counted until next week, so they're actually more likely to have a red shift.

Hmmm, you might be right; looking over the other NJ House results, they don't appear particularly R-friendly.  Ugh.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324455639679160321

They should call AZ

Is this actually a change?  NYT has these vote numbers, but they still say 86% counted.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why aren’t any decision desks willing to call PA for Biden already?  What more information are they looking for.   They all called Virginia for Biden when he was much much further behind in the actual vote count, based on where the outstanding ballots were.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone know what is going on with the vote counting in Ohio?  Trump leads there by 8% with 90% reporting, but based on where the missing vote is, it looks to be like Biden could cut that margin down to 3-4%.  It would be very surprising to me if Ohio actually ended up trending right as it appeared to on election night.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Biden should be up by around 4000 votes after the next dump of Gwinnett County votes this morning.

3,500 are out in Gwinnett. Biden is ahead there by 17.9%. Biden's existing lead is 1,579.

(3,500 x.179) + 1,579 = 627 + 1,579 = 2,206. Then the military ballots and some provisionals and what not.

Except if Biden won the counted vote in Gwinnett buy 17.9%, he should win the remaining VBM ballots by way more than 17.9%.  Probably by at least 40%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are we still expecting more Nevada returns very soon?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are we still expecting more Nevada returns very soon?

Biden's lead doubled from a lead of 10K to 20K.

I saw that, but that was only 30k ballots...I thought we were supposed to get the vast majority of the outstanding ballots today.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Assuming the Biden campaign still has some money left, I love to see them spend it on something like this:

https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/mack-north-taunting-fred-peete/2870448
https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/mack-north-ii-stalking-fred-peete/2870449

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kind of crazy how Trump did better with non-white voters than any Republican nominee since 1960 and still lost!

Better than George Bush 2004?

I'm pretty sure Bush did better in 2004.  The exit polls I've seen suggest Bush won 44% of Latinos, while Trump won 32% of Latinos in 2020.  

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The last AZ dump was heavy Trump.

The one from this morning?

No, it wasn't.

right now around 5K votes, the margin is now 40954 statewide

I see what you mean

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Where are these huge margins coming from?

Biden 34.0% / 66.0% Trump

Biden 18.7% / 81.3% Trump

So much for the rest of the AZ ballots being more Dem favorable...

I would guess these are not Maricopa ballots, but rather from one of the several small, heavily Republican counties that still had a few thousand outstanding ballots.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

You could also form a corporation and do an independent expenditure.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why do you have all the ballots on one paper? In the UK, we'd have separate ballots for each election.

How many elections do you have at one time?  In many US states, people are often asked to vote for 20 or more offices and initiatives during some general elections.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Didn't Nicole Wallace say earlier today that she believed NBC will call the race when and if Biden's PA margin reached 35k (which would be 0.5%)?  This should be right around what we get out of the Allegheny dump.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So has Allegheny already processed their ballots and is just waiting for 5pm to report the count? Or is 5pm when they can start processing (in which case it we might not even get them at all today)?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Allegheny will not drop new results until at least 6:30 pm EST - 3200 votes that were damaged + 3800 military/overseas voters.  

What about all their regular VBM ballots?  Don’t they have >30,000 of those?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The media called the election for Trump on election night in 2016 based on even smaller margins than this.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The media called the election for Trump on election night in 2016 based on even smaller margins than this.

They didn't have as many mail ballots then.

This should make the networks even more likely to call PA and NV sooner, since we know the remaining vote is much more heavily tilted toward Biden.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Nevada has counted 92% of their ballots and Pennsylvania has counted 96%.  There are tons of states that have counted far fewer than this.  California has only counted 77%, and Maryland has only counted 70%.

We aren’t dumping on CA or MD right now because we knew long ago who won the race there. 

But the thing is, we’ve also known for a while who won the race in PA and NV.  At this point, the delay in the process is almost entirely the fault of the media for refusing to acknowledge reality and not the election administrators in those states.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Jesus. Nearly 4M left in CA alone.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1324883424696471552

These alone might increase Biden's national PV margin by a full 1%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Well, Joe is 0.5 ahead of Trump. That’s the threshold for some networks, no?

Only .43 before rounding.