2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21
It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Trump is going to win again

Of course Biden is favored to win, he's literally stealing the election now.

Should have included the rigging in your predictions then?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324243214438699008?s=20

Wayne and Milwaukee turnout were a decent bit up from 2016 FWIW, although Philly already did have high turnout for 2016 compared to the former 2.

[lfromnj]

If Fox or AP doesn't retract it's projection as these first batches of ballots come in then I doubt they will. If they had serious doubts then they surely wouldn't wait until Trump is gaining to change their call, one wouldn't think.

They probably dont want to draw attention to it further.  They're just hoping Biden wins and then it's not an issue.

^

This i think biden is still favored there but everyone remember CA 21 from 2018 ?

[lfromnj]

Funnily enough PA aside Arizona looks like Biden is going to be saved by the hispanic vote & republicans crossing over.

Can't really draw any conclusions until we see the Maricopa County map. Maybe the Latino vote in south and west Phoenix is turning out. Maybe it's underperforming but Biden is running up the score in Scottsdale and Chandler. We really don't know.

Santa Cruz and Yuma County so far have swung r from 2016 btw.

[lfromnj]

I think it's pretty clear that Nevada is NOT a Likely D state like Colorado or Virginia but still a battleground for the time being.

Nevada and Florida seem relatively similar besides one has a competent D party atleast with a rough outlook, still some differences when you go deeper.

[lfromnj]

Not good at all, and the fact Atlas STILL hasn’t learned to not be an echo chamber is shocking.
After last night, I would expect at least a bit more caution.

The fact that Michigan was called for Biden I would think you a little more humble and aelf-aware, but apparently not.

The fact that Elliot county went for Trump by a greater margin might teach you a bit, but apparently not.

Did Alben Barkley sleep with your girlfriend or something? You have a problem.

My real problem is idiots like him try to act "high quality" and chase off actual high quality posters like Elections Guy of this forum.

[lfromnj]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

I don't know NYC burbs are not pretty, Biden did moderately increase his net vote margin in Westchester by like 15k but its fully in and it swung to Trump. Could possibly swing towards Trump although Im not sure.

[lfromnj]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

It is. Here in NY, they don't even start counting the mail-in/absentee votes until tomorrow. We won't know the full results until a week or too. However, it's heavily from Democratic voters.

Agreed for that but it says Westchester is fully in and turnout is decently up which means it probably is in but it still swung a bit towards Trump.

[lfromnj]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

It is. Here in NY, they don't even start counting the mail-in/absentee votes until tomorrow. We won't know the full results until a week or too. However, it's heavily from Democratic voters.

Agreed for that but it says Westchester is fully in and turnout is decently up which means it probably is in but it still swung a bit towards Trump.

Anywhere else the Democratic gains weren't consistent in wealthy suburbs?

Palm Beach and Broward swinging R wasn't a good sign for Ds either, Broward swung D in 2016 and Palm Beach trended D and Hillary netted like 20 votes over Obama 2012 from there. Trump so far has netted votes from those 2. Definitely seems there was a strong Jewish swing.

[lfromnj]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

Tbh I'm surprised considering what happened with Tejanos.

Albequerque+Santa Fe+Los Alamos were solid  for D's while also Native Americans came decent for Biden. Was kinda hard to tell with the very high GJ in 2016 share.

[lfromnj]

OMG

Alicia Parlapiano, in Washington 6m ago

The registrar in Clark County (Las Vegas) said the county would release the next batch of votes around noon ET on Friday. Remaining votes include mail and provisional ballots.


are you kidding me? it should not take 24 hours to count another batch

Agonizingly slow vote counts isn't just a California feature. It's a regional feature

Btw how long you gonna keep your sig

A lot of aged milk there

[lfromnj]

Houston did not move much left

Oil?

[lfromnj]

Biden becomes the first candidate to get 2 million votes in Massachusetts history. This was almost guaranteed to happen because Clinton got 1.995m.

Also first to get over 80% in Suffolk County since 1964.

Southies all got Gentrified out RIP.

[lfromnj]

Also if the Senate doesn't flip it looks really bad for D's to not have taken the compromise bill.

[lfromnj]

MA is a biden landslide as expected but Falls River MA swung like 10 points right, ethnic white Democrats continue their slide to the GOP.(Portuguese in this case)

[lfromnj]

Wow some more Zapata counties but in Maine , there are some areas in Northern Maine that were like nearly 70% obama and still barely voted for Clinton but Trump flipped a town or 2 this year. Very small difference overall but still crazy.

[lfromnj]

Ugh, all this whining from Spanberger. Why are so many people in the Democratic caucus so lame?

Because bad messaging from Dems in safe blue seats is actively hurting her. Her (and DMP's) complaints are completely reasonable.

https://www.nrcc.org/2020/08/10/debbie-mucarsel-powell-attacks-cubans/

Guess the NRCC played this hard.Probably didn't go well.

[lfromnj]

Btw that Detroit post showing Trump only getting 12.7k votes in Detroit was actually nearly a double of what he got in 2016.(7.5k)

 Does anyone know how much Biden got? He probably netted more votes although Detroit did have to swing R.

James actually got 9k votes in Detroit in 2018, so it seems both James did have appeal to black voters in 2018 compared to Trump 2016 but in 2020 they did the same .

[lfromnj]

Trump netted 6k votes from Detroit, Biden lost 1k and Trump gained 5k.

[lfromnj]

Trump will win imo.

He did win.

Notice how it's the blue precincts that always have election irregularities/just enough ballots in the end to magically put dems on the top:

This kind of flagrant disinformation is dangerous and should get someone banned.

Some of the mods posted misinformation about the Lumbee are still mods. Didn't even bother fixing it

[lfromnj]

Btw in Nevada house races NV03/NV04 are 83% and 88% in. NV01 is only 75% in. I wouldn't have called NV for Biden just on Clark being as Clark isn't that D. However most of whats left out is in the most D district so Biden should have Nevada .


I do wonder if Trump won NV04 while losing NV03 which is actually the reverse of the 2016 results.

[lfromnj]

So Far MA was a Bidenslide even in the rural parts. Not sure how late ballots trend. However most actual Urban areas in MA swung towards Trump, we could see a closer PV than expected if this holds true.



https://twitter.com/richparr79/status/1324362497164496899

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/1324364398975176705

This could also mean there was depolarization lol.

[lfromnj]

Cumberland County dumped....Biden only lost here by 10. Pretty impressive.

It's trending Democratic. If I'm correct there is a spillover of government workers from Harrisburg moving there.

Which would be pretty rare for Pennsylvania as of late, correct? (A Republican county trending Democratic -- only Chester comes to mind in that regard).  

Lancaster and Berks too, I think. South-Central PA seems to be inching leftward. Although calling Chester Republican at this point is pretty bold!

Berks isn't trending D it went from Romney +1 to Trump +10, probably gonna shift with the state this year. Gonna be cool to the shift within it, the actual main city probably swung towards Trump.

[lfromnj]

So Far MA was a Bidenslide even in the rural parts. Not sure how late ballots trend. However most actual Urban areas in MA swung towards Trump, we could see a closer PV than expected if this holds true.



https://twitter.com/richparr79/status/1324362497164496899

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/1324364398975176705

This could also mean there was depolarization lol.

Lawrence is heavily Hispanic.

Yup I know that, its hilarious to see Wellesley MA being more D than Lawrence, hopefully it holds. Those NIMBY's there would never even want anyone from Lawrence living in their town.

Wellesley was only 56% obama in 2012

[lfromnj]

Seems interesting, I do wonder if the future Latino vote might eventually trend towards similarly like the Portugese vote in Fall River/New Bedford.