NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Ferguson97]

It's more likely that Menendez loses a primary than a general.

[Ferguson97]

Very expected, and I wish Menendez would not run in 2024 to make room for her.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1602294951366139904

I think it's more likely she's preparing for a 2025 run for governor

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1623735704009187331

If a complete nobody can win nearly 40% of the vote against Menendez in a Democratic midterm in 2018, this guy should have a very good shot.

[Ferguson97]

At this point, if Menendez doesn't resign, I expect him to lose the primary.

[Ferguson97]

Norcross calling for his resignation too? It's so over.

[Ferguson97]

I’m interested to see how all this affects Menendez’s son, Rob. I don’t think Democrats will turn to Rob to be a replacement candidate for his father’s Senate seat, because they’re related. So I think Rob just runs for re-election to the House. But, will Rob get a primary challenger?

Honestly, I doubt people are going to hold it against Rob Jr. if he refuses to say his father should resign, but they'll definitely be looking at him under a microscope to make sure the apple falls far from the tree.

[Ferguson97]

Embarrassing press conference. Just resign and avoid the embarrassment of losing the primary, Bobby.

[Ferguson97]

I like Tammy Murphy fine but I’d be really surprised if she ran.

[Ferguson97]

I would have preferred Sherrill over Kim, but I suppose it's good to consolidate support and prevent a Menendez plurality win.

[Ferguson97]

6%? Holy crap he's cooked.

[Ferguson97]

I’d be extremely surprised if Tammy Murphy won, to be honest.

[Ferguson97]

Tammy Murphy will not win the primary.

[Ferguson97]

If they split the Dem field, maybe Menendez has a chance of winning the primary?

He's polling a cool 6%. He'd need about 90 other candidates to evenly split the vote for him to have a chance.

[Ferguson97]

Let’s go Andy!

[Ferguson97]

Sounds about right. I don't think this primary is as Safe Murphy as some people think

Who thinks that the primary is Safe Murphy? Most polls show Kim leading by a healthy margin, and the consensus on the ground is that Kim will win.

[Ferguson97]

Incredible news!

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/danieljhan_/status/1761864798801678519

[Ferguson97]

Really wasn't expecting the bitterness of this primary.
Here's to hoping that there's less collateral damage and not more.
In general Tammy Murphy trying to win the primary off just the County Line alone is not the best thing to see.

I guess the bitterness comes from Murphy believing she was entitled to the be the Democratic candidate as the governor's wife with a lot of financial ressources and institutional backing. Yet Kim seems to have connected with Democratic voters and well beyond the progressive wing.

I think the backlash would be virtually non-existent if the establishment had coalesced around say, Mikie Sherrill, or some random state legislator. The fact that it's Murphy's wife, who has no political experience, really rubbed everyone the wrong way.

[Ferguson97]

Feel free to take this with a grain of salt, but here's a bit of insider info... I personally know two people voting tonight. They're about as pro-establishment as it gets. Even they're very skeptical of the Murphy campaign. They were undecided when I spoke to them last Friday. All I'll say is that if these two weren't in the bag for Murphy... she might be in trouble.

[Ferguson97]

Yeah, I think people were hyping this one up a little too much. Kim has done well to give himself a real chance at the nomination, but Murphy is definitely still the favorite.

Murphy is not the favorite. She's going to lose by 8-10 points.

[Ferguson97]

Yeah if Kim wins he has that seat for life, whereas Tammy Murphy is a weak candidate who’s could potentially put that seat in danger, if not in 2024 than definitely in 2030.

Completely disagree. The only way the seat is vulnerable is if the state as a whole shifts to the right.

[Ferguson97]

He would generously get 5% of the vote lol

[Ferguson97]

Holy crap, I legit didn’t see that coming

She must’ve thought that a) the line is definitely gone and b) that she would definitely lose without it.

[Ferguson97]

I wasn't a fan of Murphy and strongly wanted Kim to win.

But I'd have no problem with her winning a house seat.

Her lack of a record made electing her to the senate a risky proposition. Let her earn her stripes in the House.

Yeah, the House is small potatoes enough that I don't really mind it. And I never really had a problem with her specifically, I was just bothered by the machine politics/nepotism aspect.

[Ferguson97]

Also if the bosses they really wanted a white suburban woman in that Senate seat so bad they could have gone with Sherrill.

I really like Sherrill. If she ran against Andy, I’d have been genuinely undecided.