NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Suburbia]

I personally think big name Democrats should bypass the Norcross-DiVincenzo machine and primary Bob Menendez.

He's toxic and should be forced to step down.

However, no Republican has won a Senate race in New Jersey since 1972 and 2024 is a presidential year, making it unlikely unless DeSantis or some other Republican with a good fit in NJ can make it competitive....

Why not former interim Sen. Jeff Chiesa, who filled the late Frank Lautenberg's seat with pride for a few months before Cory Booker won the special in 2013?

[sg0508]

Unlikely any of them and it will be the wrong time to try to take the seat. A presidential year won't be the time. The senate candidate will likely have to beat out the Democrats' presidential nominee by at least 5-7 points to win.

[Suburbia]

Unlikely any of them and it will be the wrong time to try to take the seat. A presidential year won't be the time. The senate candidate will likely have to beat out the Democrats' presidential nominee by at least 5-7 points to win.

You don't think they can do it even against a toxic Bob Menendez?

Do you think Democrats can primary him? He's toxic.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unlikely any of them and it will be the wrong time to try to take the seat. A presidential year won't be the time. The senate candidate will likely have to beat out the Democrats' presidential nominee by at least 5-7 points to win.

You don't think they can do it even against a toxic Bob Menendez?

Do you think Democrats can primary him? He's toxic.

Maybe Malinowski goes for it now that he’s out of congress?

[MargieCat]

What about that Jack Ciattarelli?

Or Tom Kean could run if he doesn't mind forfeiting his seat.

[Ferguson97]

It's more likely that Menendez loses a primary than a general.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one it's a Prez yr in NJ and Trump is very unpopular in Blue states due to insurrection

[Dani Rose]

He certainly needs to be primaried, but not by someone from the Norcross Machine. Malinowski is possible, but Sherrill and Kim could also do it.

[kwabbit]

Van Drew would be intriguing. I wonder if Norcross would endorse such an endeavor. The NJ GOP can’t really win an election at presidential turnout levels; when they get close they are buoyed by terrible turnout in Paterson, Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City, etc.

I think the easiest path would be to nominate a moderate and hope a 3rd party captures a good portion on the left. Menendez wouldn’t lose a 1 v 1.

[Suburbia]

Van Drew would be intriguing. I wonder if Norcross would endorse such an endeavor. The NJ GOP can’t really win an election at presidential turnout levels; when they get close they are buoyed by terrible turnout in Paterson, Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City, etc.

I think the easiest path would be to nominate a moderate and hope a 3rd party captures a good portion on the left. Menendez wouldn’t lose a 1 v 1.

What about Chiesa?

[kwabbit]

Van Drew would be intriguing. I wonder if Norcross would endorse such an endeavor. The NJ GOP can’t really win an election at presidential turnout levels; when they get close they are buoyed by terrible turnout in Paterson, Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City, etc.

I think the easiest path would be to nominate a moderate and hope a 3rd party captures a good portion on the left. Menendez wouldn’t lose a 1 v 1.

What about Chiesa?

Given that he didn't even seek reelection in 2013 in a great environment for Republicans in NJ, I don't think he's interested.

Christie scheduled the special election when he did so that he would be insulated from higher turnout in the urban areas. I think Chiesa may have had a shot if Christie scheduled the special on election day 2013. It's easy to see Christie having had big enough coattails to have made the special competitive.

[Schiff for Senate]

I personally think big name Democrats should bypass the Norcross-DiVincenzo machine and primary Bob Menendez.

He's toxic and should be forced to step down.

Unironically this.

[TodayJunior]

The right thing to do is for him not to run, but if he does run again, no GOP candidate can beat him. Maybe van Drew could give him a run for his money, but he'll fall short in the same way NJ-GOV turned out in 2021.

[Miked0920]

The best case for Dems would be for Menendez not to run, unless a GOP nominee makes NJ competitive at the presidential level its hard to see the Dems losing the seat. Tom Kean Jr I guess could be competitive against Menendez if things go south but he would have to forfeit his seat to run a race he could lose. I personally just to be safe wish Menendez not run for re- election.

[David Hume]

The right thing to do is for him not to run, but if he does run again, no GOP candidate can beat him. Maybe van Drew could give him a run for his money, but he'll fall short in the same way NJ-GOV turned out in 2021.

Unless serious scandals force him to resign, I guess he will try hold the seat until his son can succeed him.

[Oryxslayer]

Nobody thinks there's a reasonable chance he tries to pass the seat to his son after the congressional election this year?

[Suburbia]

Nobody thinks there's a reasonable chance he tries to pass the seat to his son after the congressional election this year?

Nepotism rules.

NJ Dems should look for candidates NOW.

But I guess that is what this state deserves after electing old Lautenberg against Doug Forrester. NJ could have let Forrester run until 2008 and let him lose in '08 under the Obama wave.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yikes... Menendez should retire.

[Suburbia]

Van Drew would be intriguing. I wonder if Norcross would endorse such an endeavor. The NJ GOP can’t really win an election at presidential turnout levels; when they get close they are buoyed by terrible turnout in Paterson, Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City, etc.

I think the easiest path would be to nominate a moderate and hope a 3rd party captures a good portion on the left. Menendez wouldn’t lose a 1 v 1.

What about Chiesa?

Given that he didn't even seek reelection in 2013 in a great environment for Republicans in NJ, I don't think he's interested.

Christie scheduled the special election when he did so that he would be insulated from higher turnout in the urban areas. I think Chiesa may have had a shot if Christie scheduled the special on election day 2013. It's easy to see Christie having had big enough coattails to have made the special competitive.

He did not want to run for the seat full term because his kids were small, a decade later, they are old enough to chart their own future.

Chiesa is one of the Christie cabinet members not to have baggage from Bridgegate....he left the cabinet before the GWB bridge scandal....

Chiesa would make Menendez sweat in Middlesex, Bergen and Burlington, counties you need to win as a challenger....

I like Chiesa...I won't mind him but knowing that NJ does not elect Republicans federally....Chiesa would be a good 2025 candidate for governor.

[kwabbit]

Van Drew would be intriguing. I wonder if Norcross would endorse such an endeavor. The NJ GOP can’t really win an election at presidential turnout levels; when they get close they are buoyed by terrible turnout in Paterson, Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City, etc.

I think the easiest path would be to nominate a moderate and hope a 3rd party captures a good portion on the left. Menendez wouldn’t lose a 1 v 1.

What about Chiesa?

Given that he didn't even seek reelection in 2013 in a great environment for Republicans in NJ, I don't think he's interested.

Christie scheduled the special election when he did so that he would be insulated from higher turnout in the urban areas. I think Chiesa may have had a shot if Christie scheduled the special on election day 2013. It's easy to see Christie having had big enough coattails to have made the special competitive.

He did not want to run for the seat full term because his kids were small, a decade later, they are old enough to chart their own future.

Chiesa is one of the Christie cabinet members not to have baggage from Bridgegate....he left the cabinet before the GWB bridge scandal....

Chiesa would make Menendez sweat in Middlesex, Bergen and Burlington, counties you need to win as a challenger....

I like Chiesa...I won't mind him but knowing that NJ does not elect Republicans federally....Chiesa would be a good 2025 candidate for governor.

I think this race could be somewhat close with most GOP challengers, but only could really be won by someone high profile. If any of the GOP congressmen run then it could be truly competitive. Van Drew could have some crossover appeal from his time as a Democrat and would demolish Menendez in South Jersey; Kean could get good margins of the North Jersey suburbs; Chris Smith is a legend and would do very well in his swaths of central Jersey.  It's just hard for a Republican to win in the high turnout scenarios. Usually poor turnout in Hudson and Essex loses a close race for the Democrats, not typically persuasion.

I'm skeptical that any Christie official could win. They no longer have the influence necessary to fundraise. One of the congressmen running would signal that the race is on the map. Plenty of wealthy Republicans in the area who would be happy to cut a check if they think victory is possible.

Victory is possible for the GOP if the following are true:

1) Menendez faces criminal or civil penalties from his latest corruption investigation and thus carries the same level of stink he did in 2018.

2) Menendez survives a tough enough primary challenge as to weaken Democratic base support for him. A green/marijuana party is able to gain ballot access despite legal challenges from NJ Democratic Party. The GOP would need to support the third-party in some way so it can get 4+%.

3) The NJ GOP recruits a credible challenger, whether it be a congressman or a high-profile state legislator.

4) NJ continues to trend slightly right from GOP gains with Hispanic voters. In 2016, it was 12 points to the left of the nation. In 2020 it was 11 points. In 2022 it was about 10 points.

5) The national environment is good for the GOP. Any scenario where the Democrat wins the presidency this race is automatically lost. In a scenario where DeSantis and Biden tie in the popular vote and Biden wins NJ by 10 points then it could be won, but not if Biden wins the state by 15 points.

Basically all of these things need to be true for Menendez to lose. If Menendez looks likely to be indicted and he's running against a congressman then it could get tight. It would have to thread a needle of Menendez being hugely damaged for the general election but carries the primary through machine support. Then the NJ GOP nominates a moderate that is palatable to the Morris County Romney/Biden voters.

[Alben Barkley]

Run Stewart Run!

[ProgressiveModerate]

As someone who lives part time in NJ these are my thoughts:

Basically no matter what, Rs are very unlikely to win a Senate race here in a Pres year. The main reason NJ-Gov 2021 was so close was because Dem strongholds like Newark literally had 10% turnout. That is not going to be the case in a Pres year, and even stripping Dems down to the barebones of Newark/Jersey City/ I-95 corrdidor/Camden/Trenton is still prolly a decent Dem win in a more stable turnout environment.

As for Menendez, I hope ideally, he just doesn't run again. The issue in NJ is there aren't a ton of well-known Dem politicians in the state so if someone were to primary him, they'd really had to do quite the job at introducing themselves to voters in a relatively narrow window of time. One underrated challenge of primarying Menendez is him being part Hispanic and having a Hispanic last name means you have quite a large chunk of the Hispanic community that will vote for him by default, particularly in the Jersey City/Elizabeth/Union City area.

NJ is one of the states where Rs tend to nominate "saner" candidates, but I expect them to be very overhyped, similar to Smiley and O'Dea.

Also just realistically given the Senate maps, it seems like there are going to be a lot of Senate races that steal the spotlight from NJ given NJ is prolly not going to be seriously contested at the Pres level.

[here2view]

None during a Presidential year

[BloJo94]

Donald Payne Jr should primary Menendez

[ProgressiveModerate]

They should run Al Cone?