NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[kwabbit]

This is definitely a revenge move by Malinowski for sacrificing him in 2022, but he could help Kim get the line in Hunterdon and Somerset. Looking back, I don't think he was a bad candidate at all. The stock trading scandal was pretty minor and isn't the smoking gun of a serious ethics issue. Kean was just an usually strong challenger, having a durable reputation as a moderate as State Senate minority leader and son of the governor.

[wbrocks67]

Hmmm.. I truly think some of this stuff will backfire on Tammy in the end.

[Sir Mohamed]

This is definitely a revenge move by Malinowski for sacrificing him in 2022, but he could help Kim get the line in Hunterdon and Somerset. Looking back, I don't think he was a bad candidate at all. The stock trading scandal was pretty minor and isn't the smoking gun of a serious ethics issue. Kean was just an usually strong challenger, having a durable reputation as a moderate as State Senate minority leader and son of the governor.

Couldn't Malionwski intend to run for governor as well? Imagine if Kim actually wins and endorses him back. That might help.

[kwabbit]

This is definitely a revenge move by Malinowski for sacrificing him in 2022, but he could help Kim get the line in Hunterdon and Somerset. Looking back, I don't think he was a bad candidate at all. The stock trading scandal was pretty minor and isn't the smoking gun of a serious ethics issue. Kean was just an usually strong challenger, having a durable reputation as a moderate as State Senate minority leader and son of the governor.

Couldn't Malionwski intend to run for governor as well? Imagine if Kim actually wins and endorses him back. That might help.

He could be intending to run for governor, but Mike Sherrill will have most of the institutional support of Tammy Murphy without any of the baggage.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is definitely a revenge move by Malinowski for sacrificing him in 2022, but he could help Kim get the line in Hunterdon and Somerset. Looking back, I don't think he was a bad candidate at all. The stock trading scandal was pretty minor and isn't the smoking gun of a serious ethics issue. Kean was just an usually strong challenger, having a durable reputation as a moderate as State Senate minority leader and son of the governor.

Couldn't Malionwski intend to run for governor as well? Imagine if Kim actually wins and endorses him back. That might help.

He could be intending to run for governor, but Mike Sherrill will have most of the institutional support of Tammy Murphy without any of the baggage.

Yeah if it was Sherrill running for Senate instead of Murphy this primary would be long over.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Off topic, but are there any Republican parties that are run by "machine" politics?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Off topic, but are there any Republican parties that are run by "machine" politics?

Yes DeSantis and Abbott machine control TX and FL Ds do best in states outside of FL and TX , OH, KY, KS  MT, AZ and GA and Rust belt aren't TX and FL

[Roll Roons]

Off topic, but are there any Republican parties that are run by "machine" politics?

Traditionally Nassau County, NY and Delaware County, PA. The former is still going strong for the most part, but the latter has been almost entirely wiped out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's machine politics because unbroken chain of Rick Perry and R Govs in both TX and FL that's what Machine politics is unbroken chain of 1 party rule, as of now ALLRED still loses by 3 to Cruz

Forum Atlas put too much infersis on Stein and ALLRED we should be donating to Gallego, Brown and Tester

If Jeff Jackson and Busse loses as expected they will run against Tillis and Daines , Collins is vulnerable but she is a moderate and can beat the odds

[LabourJersey]

Off topic, but are there any Republican parties that are run by "machine" politics?

Traditionally Nassau County, NY and Delaware County, PA. The former is still going strong for the most part, but the latter has been almost entirely wiped out.

Morris County had a Republican machine up until recently, too.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anecdotal but all the family I have in NJ seem to be leaning for Kim; they're relatively normie Dems and while they don't personally have anything against Murphy, they just don't like the idea of sending the Governor's wife to Congress. This is mainly in the Jersey City area - Kim seems to be in a good place.

[Ferguson97]

Sounds about right. I don't think this primary is as Safe Murphy as some people think

Who thinks that the primary is Safe Murphy? Most polls show Kim leading by a healthy margin, and the consensus on the ground is that Kim will win.

[Roll Roons]

Sounds about right. I don't think this primary is as Safe Murphy as some people think

Who thinks that the primary is Safe Murphy? Most polls show Kim leading by a healthy margin, and the consensus on the ground is that Kim will win.

There have only been something like two polls and they were both Kim internals.

[Minnesota Mike]

Didn’t see it posted but Murphy is massively outraising Kim. That’s not a surprise though, and his grassroots support has me encouraged enough to keep the door open for a Kim victory.

They both have $2.7 mill COH at the end of the 4th Q.

Maybe I'm just naive about the power of the machine and the fabled line but to me Kim looks to be a solid favorite. The Governor's wife getting the backing of the powerful pols who have to deal with the Governor is just a terrible look and I honestly think it will backfire. I rarely donate money to a candidate until after the primary but I may make an exception for Kim.

[Oryxslayer]

Didn’t see it posted but Murphy is massively outraising Kim. That’s not a surprise though, and his grassroots support has me encouraged enough to keep the door open for a Kim victory.

They both have $2.7 mill COH at the end of the 4th Q.

Maybe I'm just naive about the power of the machine and the fabled line but to me Kim looks to be a solid favorite. The Governor's wife getting the backing of the powerful pols who have to deal with the Governor is just a terrible look and I honestly think it will backfire. I rarely donate money to a candidate until after the primary but I may make an exception for Kim.

On the topic of this money: almost everything for Murphy came from big NJDP party donors, whereas over 90% of Kim's came from small donations. That type of polarization says something,  especially when the small donor candidate isn't a progressive who expects that type of fundraising.

Meanwhile,  Menendez is getting F'ed by the donors,  but we all knew that:

https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1752830677119074478?t=W1K6o4YBSylPc7XvefK...

[cg41386]

Anecdotal but all the family I have in NJ seem to be leaning for Kim; they're relatively normie Dems and while they don't personally have anything against Murphy, they just don't like the idea of sending the Governor's wife to Congress. This is mainly in the Jersey City area - Kim seems to be in a good place.

This is basically how I feel, minus the Jersey City part.

[CityofSinners]

Should we assume that Murphy will overperform polls because of her county line advantage? Can't really replicate the ballot design during a poll.

[cg41386]

I wouldn’t assume anything right now. On paper you would think Murphy has the advantage, but Kim has the electoral experience.

[Oryxslayer]

Should we assume that Murphy will overperform polls because of her county line advantage? Can't really replicate the ballot design during a poll.

I assume you are referring to this, the first public poll of the race? The only thing than one can say for certain is that Campos-Medina is likely overpolled, since their campaign lacks any money or presence,  something that will become more apparent with time:.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1753406704123871449?t=GB0JbWYvFrJb0bvMjTd0...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Are blacks and Latinos going with Murphy because she is considered the establishment choice?

[Oryxslayer]

Are blacks and Latinos going with Murphy because she is considered the establishment choice?

There's no easy way to say this...low income city voters, most often but not always people of color,  are the people who are considered inside the machine.  It's a lot less open than in the days of say Tammany, but people wouldn't see the value in machine politics if they didn't see some benefit.

[The Mikado]

Are blacks and Latinos going with Murphy because she is considered the establishment choice?

There's no easy way to say this...low income city voters, most often but not always people of color,  are the people who are considered inside the machine.  It's a lot less open than in the days of say Tammany, but people wouldn't see the value in machine politics if they didn't see some benefit.

That's how machines always were and especially in their golden age. Basically politics as transactional patron/client relationships rather than politics as ideology, which the higher educated reformers valued. Usually the machines beat the reformers by offering more practical benefits to people's lives than the clean government reformers could offer. Machines declined when they couldn't do that anymore.

The oldest cliche about machine politics is an old Boss dying and all the well educated people reading editorials about how he was a giant crook who embezzled millions while his funeral is well attended by common folk sobbing about how he was the soul of generosity and the greatest man to ever live. "He paid for my daughter's wedding" "He found me a new place to live when my apartment complex burned down" etc.

Modern machines don't have anywhere near the power to do stuff like that so they're automatically far weaker than the old fashioned kind.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are blacks and Latinos going with Murphy because she is considered the establishment choice?

There's no easy way to say this...low income city voters, most often but not always people of color,  are the people who are considered inside the machine.  It's a lot less open than in the days of say Tammany, but people wouldn't see the value in machine politics if they didn't see some benefit.

But what kind of benefit do they or their communities get from supporting the machine over a reformist canidate ?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Off topic, but are there any Republican parties that are run by "machine" politics?

There’s plenty of pastors around where I lived that basically directed their churchgoers to vote a certain way, but that’s a bit of an informal machine, since it wasn’t coordinated with the party or each other.

[kyc0705]

Got some kind of sponsored poll for the Murphy campaign today, in which they tested out various lines of attack against Kim. They are trying to paint Kim as a DINO/Republican, which is very funny when considering which candidate in this primary was literally a registered Republican for decades.