NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705352760172933334

Latino card activated.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705352760172933334

Latino card activated.

It’s not very effective.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’m just gonna point out that I posted the initial breakage of this on August 2nd, but it wasnt discussed much ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .

A Senator’s New Wife and Her Old Friends Draw Prosecutors’ Attention

Mr. Menendez, the 69-year-old Democratic chairman of the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee, under investigation by the Justice Department for the second time in less than a decade. His wife is also under investigation (for the first time)

The new inquiry, led by the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan, appears to be focused at least in part on the possibility that either the senator or his wife received undisclosed gifts from a company run by a friend of Ms. Menendez, and that those gifts might have been given in exchange for political favors, according to two people with knowledge of the matter and subpoenas issued in the case.

The article goes on to say that the future Mrs. Menendez had struggled financially but now has “assets included bars of gold bullion then valued at as much as $250,000.”

[Progressive Pessimist]

This next Senate class will have really taken out the trash between losing Feinstein, Manchin, Menendez, and Sinema.

That's not to say thst we should get too ahead of ourselves and celebrate yet, we need to hold every seat outside if West Virginia next year to really get the most out of it-and that will be easier said than done.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This next Senate class will have really taken out the trash between losing Feinstein, Manchin, Menendez, and Sinema.

That's not to say thst we should get too ahead of ourselves and celebrate yet, we need to hold every seat outside if West Virginia next year to really get the most out if it-and that will be easier said than done.

Tbf Sinema was championed when she won, then abandoned all her principles for.. idk what

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Progressives/idpol Dems who were championing her weren't paying attention. This idea that Sinema changed only after being elected to the Senate is false. She was very moderate in the House and was immediately voting just like Manchin when she got to the Senate. She shied away from identifying with the Democrat label her entire campaign. She has been remarkably consistent in the Senate - people just didn't pay attention until Dems took the Senate in 2021.


Anyways, good that Menendez is indicted. Will Republicans take this indictment as proof that Dems aren't indicting people like Trump for political reasons only? Or will the general takeaway be that all Dems are just corrupt?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705352760172933334

Latino card activated.

One of the weakest and dumbest cases of pulling the race card I've ever seen.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705352760172933334

Standing for deep and important Latino traditions like taking bribes in the form of gold bars like his ancestors working for the Spanish Empire did in 1720.

[jman123]

In 2018 he fended off a surprisingly tough primary challenge where a nobody got 38 percent of the vote. I have the impression that Menendez is weak. Can you see Menendez actually losing the NJ 2024 Dem primary if another democrat with the support of the party apparatus mounts a challenge? Would menendez lose his home county of Hudson?

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Menendez absolutely refuses to resign, I do think he could lose in a primary, especially since many high profile New Jersey Democrats wouldsmell blood in the water and chomp at the bit for that opportunity. Already we are seeing county party chairs denounce him, and they would not hesitate to put their money where their mouth is and back soneone else in this instance.

The real questions would be who runs, how many candidates compete, and do they split the vote in a way that could enable Menendez to win again?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Menendez absolutely refuses to resign, I do think he could lose in a primary, especially since many high profile New Jersey Democrats wouldsmell blood in the water and chomp at the bit for that opportunity. Already we are seeing county party chairs denounce him, and they would not hesitate to put their money where their mouth is and back soneone else in this instance.

The real questions would be who runs, how many candidates compete, and do they split the vote in a way thst could enable Menendez to win again?

This is what I'm thinking. There's a chance it could be a RI-GOV 2022 scenario where Menendez gets through.

[JMT]

If Menendez absolutely refuses to resign, I do think he could lose in a primary, especially since many high profile New Jersey Democrats wouldsmell blood in the water and chomp at the bit for that opportunity. Already we are seeing county party chairs denounce him, and they would not hesitate to put their money where their mouth is and back soneone else in this instance.

The real questions would be who runs, how many candidates compete, and do they split the vote in a way thst could enable Menendez to win again?

This is what I'm thinking. There's a chance it could be a RI-GOV 2022 scenario where Menendez gets through.

This is possible, but political parties/party bosses have a lot of power in New Jersey. I think it’s more likely we’ll see Democrats unite behind one single challenger, and Menendez would probably lose by a healthy margin. Considering an unknown primary challenger got 38% of the vote in 2018, I think a more serious challenger would be heavily favored against Menendez, especially now that the corruption charges/allegations are much more serious this time around.

I think the biggest question is who the Democrats unite around. My guess is Mikie Sherrill, but I could also see it being Andy Kim or Josh Gottheimer.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Menendez absolutely refuses to resign, I do think he could lose in a primary, especially since many high profile New Jersey Democrats wouldsmell blood in the water and chomp at the bit for that opportunity. Already we are seeing county party chairs denounce him, and they would not hesitate to put their money where their mouth is and back soneone else in this instance.

The real questions would be who runs, how many candidates compete, and do they split the vote in a way thst could enable Menendez to win again?

This is what I'm thinking. There's a chance it could be a RI-GOV 2022 scenario where Menendez gets through.

This is possible, but political parties/party bosses have a lot of power in New Jersey. I think it’s more likely we’ll see Democrats unite behind one single challenger, and Menendez would probably lose by a healthy margin. Considering an unknown primary challenger got 38% of the vote in 2018, I think a more serious challenger would be heavily favored against Menendez, especially now that the corruption charges/allegations are much more serious this time around.

I think the biggest question is who the Democrats unite around. My guess is Mikie Sherrill, but I could also see it being Andy Kim or Josh Gottheimer.

Yeah I agree it's much more likely he goes down big, especially since the county line system is so insanely powerful.
The only thing making me question it is the amount of power-hungry dems in NJ, although MI dems clearing the field for Slotkin does show the establishment can make them fall in line.

[wbrocks67]

Dems need to go ahead and remove him from the party line on the ballot if he won't resign himself.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705610661156299252

[Ferguson97]

Norcross calling for his resignation too? It's so over.

[JMT]

I’m interested to see how all this affects Menendez’s son, Rob. I don’t think Democrats will turn to Rob to be a replacement candidate for his father’s Senate seat, because they’re related. So I think Rob just runs for re-election to the House. But, will Rob get a primary challenger?

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705610661156299252

The dam has broke for Menendez.

Really fascinating to see if he walks back his "I'm not going anywhere!" statement soon. The writing seems to be on the wall.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1705634054765191168

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/AndyKimNJ/status/1705658967878230372?t=yIr2waEJ0j-vpLbeSWiCN...

Andy Kim running

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/AndyKimNJ/status/1705658967878230372?t=yIr2waEJ0j-vpLbeSWiCN...
Andy Kim running

[Senator Incitatus]

Kim seemed like the most likely to consolidate party-wide support. If Menendez stays in, I think Kim wins. If not, this is the start of a real race. Very smart move by him to announce quickly.

edit: This would also be a fascinating rise for someone who was written off as DOA until redistricting. I still think more likely at this point that Menendez does ultimately bow out and we have a real fight on our hands, but Kim would be both my preferred candidate (excepting fringe protest votes) and I think the most likely to win.

[Comrade Funk]

Menendez probably doesn't give a sh**t. He's the type of guy who would torpedo his own party out of spite. I love how his nepo baby son's Senate ambitions are likely dead after this too. Too bad he still got a free ride to congress.

[Mr. Smith]

This next Senate class will have really taken out the trash between losing Feinstein, Manchin, Menendez, and Sinema.

That's not to say thst we should get too ahead of ourselves and celebrate yet, we need to hold every seat outside if West Virginia next year to really get the most out of it-and that will be easier said than done.

Left out Carper and Cardin for some reason.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If Kim has the machine backing, and I suspect he does, it's over.