2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Ferguson97]

There’s either going to be an unprecedented, massive partisan gap in person mail in voting or there’s going to be an unprecedented, massive democratic wave

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1315883900418379777?s=21

[Ferguson97]

What margin does Biden have to win Harris County by that he'd likely win the state?

[Ferguson97]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)
HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

Anything on the partisan breakdown?

What margin does Biden have to win Harris County by that he'd likely win the state?

Anything over 300k and I think he’s sitting pretty.

Because if this is accurate, Biden is in a very good position in Texas.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/foxnews/status/1317249264020586502

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/abc7/status/1318176906932588544?s=21

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1318328000941871104

[Ferguson97]

Is this true

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1318658250909323266

If it is, I did some quick math to work out how much Trump would need to rule by if those numbers keep up.

(tl;dr, Trump needs a minimum of 61% of the vote among people who haven't voted yet in order to win.)

If there are 5,500,000 voters in Ohio (roughly the same as 2016)...

And 41% have already voted, that's 2,255,000 voters.

If Biden has won 61% of them, then that's 1,375,550 "locked in" votes for him. And if Trump's at 34% then he has 766,700 "locked in" votes.

With 59% voters left to go (or 3,245,000 voters), if Trump wins by the narrowest possible margin (2,750,001 for Trump vs 2,749,999 for Biden) then he would need to win 61% of the remaining voters himself. That's for just a nail biter. If he wins a larger percentage of future voters than 61%, then he wins. If he gets anything below that, then he loses to Biden.

[Ferguson97]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Other than ME-02 this is my exact map

[Ferguson97]

Other than ME-02 this is my exact map

Me too, except I am not so sure about North Carolina.  And I think Florida will be a lot tighter because it's Florida.  But everything else looks spot on to me.

Team Biden thinking they're up 3 and a half points in Georgia is the big shocker here.

Wasn't considering the margins, just the results. I'd think Georgia is tighter and Arizona is wider.

[Ferguson97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

A Yang guy thinking predict it has meaning confirms my priors

[Ferguson97]

Not sure how we've construed Democrats expanding their VBM lead in Florida into "Trump will win Florida"...

[Ferguson97]

I'm assuming that voting online will probably become a thing in the next couple decades, it's kind of the only current civic engagement you can't do online. This rendering these lines moot.

As of now I believe Estonia is the only country in the world that allows it, but I can't see it failing to spread.

Online voting is quite possibly the worst idea ever. We would never have a secure election for the rest of our lives. Whether it's China, Russia, or some domestic group, the election would be hacked.

[Ferguson97]

Seems important.

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1319328824769859585

Holy sh**t, turnout is going to be insane