2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Holmes]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

Allegheny is posting big numbers at 35% returned. Philly and the burbs (other than Chester) and Lackawanna have basically nothing returned yet.

[Non Swing Voter]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

3:1. That electoral makeup is reminiscent of MN in 2018.

Whats your analysis?  MN was a democratic blowout in 2018 right?

[Dr. Arch]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

3:1. That electoral makeup is reminiscent of MN in 2018.

Whats your analysis?  MN was a democratic blowout in 2018 right?

Yes. Democrats received more overall votes in MN in 2018 than they did in 2016. If these are the first numbers coming in with barely anything from Philly and all of its suburbs, then things are looking good in terms of turnout from Democrats.

We can't derive any final results, of course, but the signs are promising for now.

[Non Swing Voter]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

3:1. That electoral makeup is reminiscent of MN in 2018.

Whats your analysis?  MN was a democratic blowout in 2018 right?

Yes. Democrats received more overall votes in MN in 2018 than they did in 2016. If these are the first numbers coming in with barely anything from Philly and all of its suburbs, then things are looking good in terms of turnout from Democrats.

We can't derive any final results, of course, but the signs are promising for now.

Yeah even though people say they would have voted anyways and this means nothing, etc., I think it's meaningful.  Biden can check these people off the list and target people who haven't voted.  Trump's banking on an overwhelming, massive turnout on Election Day that skews towards him.  But a lot of people who aren't all that political will probably lean to Biden and vote on Election Day, cutting down Trump's margin then.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also - Democrats have a 330k vote lead in Florida now.

[wbrocks67]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

Allegheny is posting big numbers at 35% returned. Philly and the burbs (other than Chester) and Lackawanna have basically nothing returned yet.

Yeah, Montgomery has been open and Philly has had lines for the past 2+ weeks so I think it's just these counties being incredibly slow to update. Which, hopefully is not an indicator of what's to come...

[wbrocks67]

Also, wow, in PA not a whole lot in, but Democrats already have returned 12% of their ballots. Reps only 6.8%.

[Xing]

Still too early to just to any conclusions, but we are getting close to 1.5 million votes in FL, and once we get to 2 or 3 million, we might be able to say something about turnout, and Republicans will probably want to start narrowing the gap in terms of % before then.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

Scranton Joe.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Do we know if all these votes in PA are valid, or do the ones not in the slips get invalidated on Election Day when they’re opened up and counted?

[philly09]

South Dakota vote update. Over 123,000 votes have been cast, almost 200,000 votes shy of the total 2016 vote total.

[Non Swing Voter]

South Dakota vote update. Over 123,000 votes have been cast, almost 200,000 votes shy of the total 2016 vote total.

South Dakotans really want their weed and gambling.

[ArtVandelay]

Update from Pennsylvania:

I received my mail in ballot yesterday. I'm in Delco (Delaware County, Philly suburb). I happened to have the day off, so I returned it to the Election office. I couldn't find a list of dropboxes. Other people I know from Delco and Montgomery County are receiving their ballots now.

I voted straight Dem.

[The Mikado]

Update from Pennsylvania:

I received my mail in ballot yesterday. I'm in Delco (Delaware County, Philly suburb). I happened to have the day off, so I returned it to the Election office. I couldn't find a list of dropboxes. Other people I know from Delco and Montgomery County are receiving their ballots now.

I voted straight Dem.

Wait, the Art Vandelay? Of Vandelay Industries? The latex company?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Update from Pennsylvania:

I received my mail in ballot yesterday. I'm in Delco (Delaware County, Philly suburb). I happened to have the day off, so I returned it to the Election office. I couldn't find a list of dropboxes. Other people I know from Delco and Montgomery County are receiving their ballots now.

I voted straight Dem.

Wait, the Art Vandelay? Of Vandelay Industries? The latex company?

Or possibly even the judge.

[Non Swing Voter]

160,000 people have voted in Palm Beach County, FL.

Lots of elderly voters there.  Maybe a bloodbath for Trump that makes up for any softness in support for Biden in Miami?

[Rep Jessica]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).  I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

[brucejoel99]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

are old people in Florida turning on Trump in a meaningful way?

[Ferguson97]

There’s either going to be an unprecedented, massive partisan gap in person mail in voting or there’s going to be an unprecedented, massive democratic wave

[Ljube]

are old people in Florida turning on Trump in a meaningful way?

I think so. It all has to do with COVID. Plus they don't have the same economic worries as younger people have.

One thing that could bring them back into the fold would be if Trump could paint Biden/Harris as communists.

Another would be if there is a secret diagnosis that Biden has dementia, or Alzheimer's.

[brucejoel99]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

are old people in Florida turning on Trump in a meaningful way?

Certainly seems like it. The Villages comes to mind as an example of a heavily pro-Trump area that's recently seen a surge in pro-Biden support (relatively speaking, of course - unless Florida literally starts falling into the sea between now & Election Day, Trump still takes it).

[Gass3268]

California seeing a massive surge of folks getting their ballots in early. Already 250K+ votes submitted.

https://twitter.com/Political_Data/status/1314770103569846273?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

are old people in Florida turning on Trump in a meaningful way?

Certainly seems like it. The Villages comes to mind as an example of a heavily pro-Trump area that's recently seen a surge in pro-Biden support (relatively speaking, of course - unless Florida literally starts falling into the sea between now & Election Day, Trump still takes it).

How do we know the villages has seen such a shift?