2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[n1240]

Harris County thinks the final early vote will be higher than the 2016 cumulative vote, but that seems too optimistic to me unless we get a few more 100K days next week. We would need about 600k more for that to happen.

Only need pace of 55k a day, doesn't seem that unreasonable considering Sunday was the worst day with 42k in-person + mail combined. Looks like they're on pace to reach around 70k in-person today again as well. Unless there is a severe lull in voting later this week/weekend I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Harris County to exceed 2016 cumulative vote off early vote.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County thinks the final early vote will be higher than the 2016 cumulative vote, but that seems too optimistic to me unless we get a few more 100K days next week. We would need about 600k more for that to happen.

Only need pace of 55k a day, doesn't seem that unreasonable considering Sunday was the worst day with 42k in-person + mail combined. Looks like they're on pace to reach around 70k in-person today again as well. Unless there is a severe lull in voting later this week/weekend I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Harris County to exceed 2016 cumulative vote off early vote.

That's true. I guess I expect it to lag a bit as Dem high propensity voters run out, but we'll see. Getting to 1.3 million before Election Day would be stunning. That probably sets us up for 1.5-1.7 million total votes out of Harris.

If Biden can win Harris 60-39, that nets him well over the 300k votes I think he needs out of here to be sitting pretty statewide.

[Non Swing Voter]

Harris County thinks the final early vote will be higher than the 2016 cumulative vote, but that seems too optimistic to me unless we get a few more 100K days next week. We would need about 600k more for that to happen.

Only need pace of 55k a day, doesn't seem that unreasonable considering Sunday was the worst day with 42k in-person + mail combined. Looks like they're on pace to reach around 70k in-person today again as well. Unless there is a severe lull in voting later this week/weekend I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Harris County to exceed 2016 cumulative vote off early vote.

That's true. I guess I expect it to lag a bit as Dem high propensity voters run out, but we'll see. Getting to 1.3 million before Election Day would be stunning. That probably sets us up for 1.5-1.7 million total votes out of Harris.

If Biden can win Harris 60-39, that nets him well over the 300k votes I think he needs out of here to be sitting pretty statewide.

If it gets to 1.3 million, you only expect another 200k - 400k to vote on Election Day?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County thinks the final early vote will be higher than the 2016 cumulative vote, but that seems too optimistic to me unless we get a few more 100K days next week. We would need about 600k more for that to happen.

Only need pace of 55k a day, doesn't seem that unreasonable considering Sunday was the worst day with 42k in-person + mail combined. Looks like they're on pace to reach around 70k in-person today again as well. Unless there is a severe lull in voting later this week/weekend I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Harris County to exceed 2016 cumulative vote off early vote.

That's true. I guess I expect it to lag a bit as Dem high propensity voters run out, but we'll see. Getting to 1.3 million before Election Day would be stunning. That probably sets us up for 1.5-1.7 million total votes out of Harris.

If Biden can win Harris 60-39, that nets him well over the 300k votes I think he needs out of here to be sitting pretty statewide.

If it gets to 1.3 million, you only expect another 200k - 400k to vote on Election Day?

Yes. 2016 had just over 300k on ED. A lot of ED vote is likely to be cannibalized by the extended early voting timeframe this year. There will be some new low propensity voters voting on Election Day as well to counteract that a little, but I can't imagine ED making up a lot more than that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318636814370893824

[Bootes Void]

Is mail voting slowing down. I think in Florida, Wisconsin and a few other it has or do people procrastinate by sending it later

[Dr. Arch]

Is mail voting slowing down. I think in Florida, Wisconsin and a few other it has or do people procrastinate by sending it later

Postal holiday yesterday, so we should be picking back up soon, not that we're being slow. Dane county is already at 70% returns.

[soundchaser]

If this pattern holds in Nevada, I could see Ralston calling it by the beginning of next week. There’s simply no way the GOP comes back if they continue to get slaughtered in VBM.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1318639589511335937?s=20

Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1318639589511335937?s=20

Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1318639589511335937?s=20

Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

Hear hear

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1318639589511335937?s=20

Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

Texan NeverTrump Republicans at your service!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1318639589511335937?s=20

Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

Texan NeverTrump Republicans at your service!

Are you voting for Castñeda for RRC?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1318639589511335937?s=20

Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

Texan NeverTrump Republicans at your service!

Are you voting for Castñeda for RRC?

Nope.  I voted straight R downballot except for Kulkarni and a local race where a Democratic friend of mine is running. 

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of noon, 82,176 votes have been cast in Georgia (in-person & mail). Total EV as of noon is 1,777,947.

[Flabuckeye]

I'm also getting a lot of texts and I'm in California and a non-voter.

I've gotten a text every 2-3 days to phonebank. Either from Biden, Bernie, or County Democrats people

The new generation ground game-
I am texting for both the Biden National Campaign and Florida Democrats.  There are 40,000 of us texters (let alone the people calling, writing post cards etc).  We each send about 600 texts a day, ask questions, see if they will vote early and how.  We mark a questionnaire and then the campaign learns how to address them in the days to come to make sure they show up.  Beats the knocking on doors/waste of time.

[Xing]

Turnout among Dems is still strong in AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

Statewide:
Democrats 370,045
Republicans 276,305
Other 192,310

Maricopa:
Democrats 281,525
Republicans 218,631
Other 154,484

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm also getting a lot of texts and I'm in California and a non-voter.

I've gotten a text every 2-3 days to phonebank. Either from Biden, Bernie, or County Democrats people

The new generation ground game-
I am texting for both the Biden National Campaign and Florida Democrats.  There are 40,000 of us texters (let alone the people calling, writing post cards etc).  We each send about 600 texts a day, ask questions, see if they will vote early and how.  We mark a questionnaire and then the campaign learns how to address them in the days to come to make sure they show up.  Beats the knocking on doors/waste of time.

As someone who really wants to volunteer but hates phonebanking and going door-to-door, textbanking is a godsend.

My friend in Sacramento is textbanking for a local school board candidate. I wish the local candidates down here were savvy enough to get on board. I'd jump on that in an instant.

[xavier110]

Turnout among Dems is still strong in AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

Statewide:
Democrats 370,045
Republicans 276,305
Other 192,310

Maricopa:
Democrats 281,525
Republicans 218,631
Other 154,484

Yeah AZ is looking good. Even in 2018 Ds never had a lead like this. And they started counting today (online, it says our ballots were counted).

[GeneralMacArthur]

I voted straight R downballot except for Kulkarni and a local race where a Democratic friend of mine is running.  

You voted for Cornyn over Hegar?  boooo

thanks for the Kulkarni vote though

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I voted straight R downballot except for Kulkarni and a local race where a Democratic friend of mine is running.  

You voted for Cornyn over Hegar?  boooo

thanks for the Kulkarni vote though

Did it just for you, MacArthur

I'm still a Republican at my core who wants a Republican Senate (House would be nice, too, bit that's not happening).   I will say that I have absolutely nothing against Hegar, though.  She's a super badass lady.  

[GeneralMacArthur]

I voted straight R downballot except for Kulkarni and a local race where a Democratic friend of mine is running.  

You voted for Cornyn over Hegar?  boooo

thanks for the Kulkarni vote though

Did it just for you, MacArthur

I'm still a Republican at my core who wants a Republican Senate (House would be nice, too, bit that's not happening).   I will say that I have absolutely nothing against Hegar, though.  She's a super badass lady.  

I wouldn't mind a Republican senate so much, but this Republican senate, with these Republicans?  Just kill me.  Two years of Biden being obstructed at every turn by Mitch, while the rest of them cry crocodile tears about the national debt and constitutional norms after being enablers for Trump for the last four years (maybe they'll even have the balls to say "you did it to Trump so we're doing it to you"), just sounds like a national nightmare to me.

[kph14]

Turnout among Dems is still strong in AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

Statewide:
Democrats 370,045
Republicans 276,305
Other 192,310

Maricopa:
Democrats 281,525
Republicans 218,631
Other 154,484

Yeah AZ is looking good. Even in 2018 Ds never had a lead like this. And they started counting today (online, it says our ballots were counted).

Personally I think this underestimates the Democratic lead. It has Pima (Tucson) at around 91,000 returned. This article from 3 days ago (!) had the returned ballots at already 197,000.

https://www.kold.com/2020/10/18/record-number-early-ballots-returned-pima-county/

[TopShelfGoal]

Why are these great lakes swing states having so much trouble having the count mostly complete on election night when it seems like pretty much all the sunbelt swing states are going to have the votes counted on election night? I don't know if it's the GOP since most of these sunbelt states are and have been under GOP control for a while.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is this true

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1318658250909323266