NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Oryxslayer]

Jesus, so slow again. AP link has stopped at 55,50,50.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1231345095158317056?s=19

[Oryxslayer]

Besides winning MN by 5%, what else is Klobuchar hoping for at this point?

Nothing. Her fate is to drop out after MN. 5th in both NV and likely SC isn't recoverable when your best showing before super Tuesday was 2nd in NH. The question is if she can sustain until then.

Similarly, I wouldn't be surprised if Warren drops out tonight or tomorrow.

[Oryxslayer]

Can we sticky this post?

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1224485489597657088?s=19

[Oryxslayer]

At least Pete’s doing pretty good ._.

He's in third and behind Biden bro

He very well could pass Biden - Clark's upcoming turf could favor Pete (for second) if NYTs map is representative and the North/Eest is overrepresented when compared to the South and West of the county. He also wasn't favored in the South and West of the nation when compared to the Midwest and Northeast. But 15-20% isn't anything to be proud of.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1224485489597657088?s=19

Reminder for the thread. Not in regards to the winner, Bernie has won, but in regards to the following: margins, delegates, total votes, etc.

[Oryxslayer]

Has Warren spoke yet? I think it could be telling she's going last...

[Oryxslayer]

It’s 3am and only 4% of precincts are in ?

Why did I wake up for this ?

Technically 10%.

[Oryxslayer]

Bernie is just as much a narcissistic cult leader as Trump is and he's going to win the nomination the sane way Trump did: a militant base and a fractured field of opponents.

I never realized the Republicans had proportional representation. Only 4 candidates of the 8 (max) in the race right now have paths after Super Tuesday that result in them getting more than 5% of the vote. 4 candidates locks out anyone from getting close to 50%, unless something changes.

FTR, I don't like any of the present candidates. My preferred candidates dropped out last year.

One of those 4 to drop out is Warren. She's probably getting the talk right now, or giving it to her campaign team, since she's behind schedule.

[Oryxslayer]

Biden now at 25% of county delegates, Buttigieg 3rd with 14.9%

Taking a look at NYTs precinct map, the only area that actually can be considered a map right now is North Las Vegas. So yeah, this was a Biden favorable batch.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN reporting that the NV DEMS have near 100% of the results reported. However, the triple verification requires the physical paper from the caucus site to be delivered to the party HQ in each county/city, so things are waiting on traffic essentially.

[Oryxslayer]

Warren right out of the gate justifying why she wants to keep going. She's clearly talked herself into staying until the loss in Massachusetts. It's her funeral.

[Oryxslayer]

So will this make it a Bernie vs Biden race now?

Been positing this for the past week or so, but strongly suspecting this will be case after Super Tuesday, where Bernie will win CA & TX, as well as possibly MN, NC, MA for starters, not to mention potential wins in places like OK.

I actually think it is a battle between Sanders and Biden-Bloomberg where Biden and Bloomberg will be de facto fighting to get the sum of their delegates to be roughly equal to Sanders.  They do this by having both be above 15% in most states.  If they can accomplish that they can get Sanders to fall significantly short of majority of delegates.

There's also enough space for a fourth candidate between all three of them. Biden has the AA vote, but so far he hasn't demonstrated the ability to get beyond that. Iowa and NH killed all of Bidens support outside his core AA+Retiree base, and NV has proved that. Bernie has the reformists+youth, but that is a limited base. Bloomberg has the money, and that can keep him going for a long time.

The fourth path is the restorationists. This is the true divide in the primary; you can be a radical and a moderate as we saw in Nevada, and a progressive and a restorationist as we saw in New Hampshire. Restorationists mainly want to return the dignity to the White House that was lost by Trump. Restorationists in that regard want to turn back the clock, no matter how hard that may be. Defeating Trump is step one and the most important step. Restorationists are usually in tune with the race, which is why Pete can tenetiusly keep getting delegates with minimal ad money - the restorationists see his polling and his position.

All four paths could theoretically keep going, especially since the primary is mostly over by March 31st. The problem of course is that if things take too long, both the AA path and the restorationist path vanish. The AA path gets subsumed into Bloomberg, and the restorationists will divide if there is no clarity.

So what likely happens? Warren tried to walk the line between the progressives and the restorationists, but Bernie locked her out. She should have dropped tonight, but it was clear she talked herself into continuing until MA. Klobuchar seems committed to ending in St. Paul, so that's another restorationist drop. Tulsi is already irrelevant, but she probably continues and gets a weird, tiny, irrelevant, slice of the electorate. Steyer has constantly undershot his polls, likely meaning SC is also going to be poor. He could continue, or he could drop after Super Tuesday. However, even if he continues, he would have been recognized as irrelevant and not get a meaningful amount of votes.

So what can disrupt the 4 paths? If Biden loses or has a weak win in SC, AA voters will abandon the wounded campaign for Bloomberg. Remember, all of the restorationists have horrible AA affinity (so they have no media expectations in SC) and Bernie only gets AA voters when they align with his youth campaign. So Bloomberg is somehow the least worst option, according to polls. If the restorationists don't consolidate after their home states on Tuesday, or buttigieg drops as well on Super Tuesday, then their voters will move to those that can like Biden or Bloomberg. Or they will give up the ghost and fall behind Bernie.

That's the path we are on right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Biden's vote share most likely will fall somewhat over time. Current results on CNN is somewhat Clark County heavy and as that gets normalized the weak Biden levels of support outside of Clark County will drag down his vote share.  He is still likely to be ahead of Buttigieg overall at the end of the day.

The NYT page has no results from Washoe County. I don't know what that means for individual candidate support (Biden, Pete, etc.), but nothing from the second most populated county in the state means the current results aren't representative of what the final results will likely be.

Clark has like 5 times more people than Washoe

Yes, but most of the Clark Vote is Inner City Las Vegas or North Las Vegas. That's why Bernies & Bidens Vote Share will fall once the suburbs begin to report.

To put this in perspective, here is NYT's map. most of Clark's Minority communities are to the right of the diagonal line or just over it in the center of Las Vegas. It's generally Hispanics, but nearly all of Nevada's AAs are in North Las Vegas. The the south and west of the line are the whiter parts - some GOP, some Democratic, some swingy. At least to me, it appears that there is more empty space to the South and west than to the North and East. So Pete's Clark share will likely rise, and Biden's will fall.

[Oryxslayer]

42,170 Votes have been counted per NBC.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1231414127265927170?s=19

[Oryxslayer]

If Biden wins South Carolina by like 5 points, that would still be a bad result for him and he would not suddenly be on track for the nomination. If Biden gets a double digit win or pretty close to it then a comeback is more plausible but not likely. South Carolina is not the bellwether no matter how much Biden wishes it is.

SC is a bellwether for the AA community, nothing more, nothing less. The big takeaway so far from the primary is that momentum is limited and no universal these days that's to the internet allowing for rapid information distillation. So voters are just off limits of require too much effort to reach depending on your target base and message.

If Biden does well in SC, it will give him clear momentum with the AA community allowing him to push back against Bloomberg in Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, and the rest. The wounded lion would have recovered some of his glory. If he flops or has a weak showing, then older AA voters will begin looking at other AA targeting campaigns like Bloomberg and steyer. Since Klobuchar, Pete, and to a lesser extent Warren have abandoned the state, they will not really suffer a bad effects of an expected loss, other than the obvious 0 next to their names. However, they also have little to gain if Biden flops.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT:

Latest dump (607/1257 Precincts)

Clark County:

Delegates

Sanders--- 48.3%
Biden---    23.7%
Pete---      13.5%
Warren--     8.9%

Washoe it appears has also decided to join the party.

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone's excitement to prove a point has caused this thread to miss the fact that NV just jumped to 60% of precincts in. 57.6K votes, 46-19.6-15.3 when it comes to delegates.

[Oryxslayer]

More precincts came in, everything from Clark with the exception of Mineral county, which added a precinct. This precinct put Steyer on top in the county, so I went digging. Could steyer be the preferred candidate of Native Americans, or at least, one of the preferred candidates?

Here's the results from a few of the reasonable Native% reservation precincts reporting so far, (final alignment):

Nye 3 - 1 Pete, 1 Bernie
Nye 4 - 2 Steyer, 1 Biden, 1 Warren
Mineral 11 (the one dropped now) - 17 Steyer, 5 Bernie
Churchill 16 - 25 Bernie, 12 Steyer
Churchill 9 - 4 Bernie, 3 Steyer, 3 Klob, 3 Warren
Lyon 5 - 1 Biden
Elko 12 - 9 Biden, 7 Pete, 3 Bernie
Humbolt 10 - 1 Bernie
Washoe 7581 - Bernie 13 , Warren 6, Biden 2, Steyer 1, Klob 1
Washoe 7412 - Bernie 11, Steyer 8, Pete 6, Warren 6
Washoe 7576 - Steyer 15, Bernie 11, Klob 8, Uncommitted 1
Carson City 409 (urban with lower Native%, so different from the rest. Steyer did get 22 on round 1) - Sanders 60, Klob 55, Pete 41, Warren 10, Biden 2

Certainly seems that steyer is doing better than average in the reservations, though they are a tiny voter pool.

[Oryxslayer]

So what does this mean in terms of state delegates?

Let's say Mayor Pete somehow pulls off 15% statewide, does this mean he will be shut out of delegates in CD-03 and possibly CD-04?

Not sure what this is trying to say. There are two pools of delegates. Some are awarded statewide , some by CD. They are separate. Both are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold. This is near universal across the democratic contests.

So if candidate a passes 15% in a district, but misses statewide, they do get district delegates like Klob did in Iowa. You can also pass 15% statewide but fail to pass 15% in a district.

[Oryxslayer]

So what does this mean in terms of state delegates?

Let's say Mayor Pete somehow pulls off 15% statewide, does this mean he will be shut out of delegates in CD-03 and possibly CD-04?

Not sure what this is trying to say. There are two pools of delegates. Some are awarded statewide , some by CD. They are separate. Both are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold. This is near universal across the democratic contests.

So if candidate a passes 15% in a district, but misses statewide, they do get district delegates like Klob did in Iowa. You can also pass 15% statewide but fail to pass 15% in a district.

The latter is not mathematically possible.

Not in Nevada with only 4 CDs, or in any of the smaller states so far. It certainly will when we hit super tuesday or for that matter any of the states with vacant (uber-GOP) districts thanks to voter sorting. One could easily imagine Bernie passing 15% in Texas but at the same time missing the threshold in a place like TX32/31. Or we can have districts like TX13 where Biden may fail to pass 15% thanks to the low voter pool and those voters mostly being Hispanic, but Biden still gets statewide delegates. Bernie's domination of TX-13 in this scenario wouldn't really dent the statewide numbers, since most of the dem votes come from the four metro areas and the Border.

[Oryxslayer]

Their site seems to have strong cache, so, you need to refresh cache too (usually Shift+ Refresh button on most browsers).

Thanks. I can see it now.

So, since this is updating at an Iowa-esque pace now, might as well take a look at how this most recent batch broke down. Doing only CCDs because I'm lazy:

Bernie 51.7%
Biden 24.6%
Pete 8.7%
Warren 7.3%
Steyer 5.7%
Klob 1.6%

So, even relative to the rest of Clark, this was an exceptionally good batch for Bernie and a bad one for Pete. Here's hoping there's more like it to come.

As someone noted these were the strip caucus's which were very good for Bernie - aka outliers. However, they are heavy outliers, so the dent is felt in the statewide total.

Interesting, based on Green Papers it looks like Biden isn't that far off from tying Sanders for delegates in NV-04.

Well Biden is winning more percents then Bernie in AA North Las Vegas, he's just not doing as hot in the other communities and Bernie isn't that far behind him inside said precincts.