NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

From the NYT live blog:

Astead Herndon, in Charleston, S.C. 23m ago

Sanders’s win in Nevada should reshape the narrative about his supporters, and is a wake-up call to rivals who have ignored the warning signs

Astead Herndon, in Charleston, S.C. 22m ago

If the “Bernie Bros” are real, so are the working-class Latino moms who put Sanders over the top in Nevada.

[jaichind]

I am surprised on how resilient Buttigieg is.  I figured he will fall below both Biden and Warren in NV but it seems while he will fall short of beating out Biden for 2nd he is keeping it close.

[Vern]

So will this make it a Bernie vs Biden race now?

[Storr]

Bernie is just as much a narcissistic cult leader as Trump is and he's going to win the nomination the sane way Trump did: a militant base and a fractured field of opponents.

Bernie won moderates & conservatives... And 1 vs 1 against any of the other candidates, he wins in recent polls - especially against candidates like Bloomberg & Buttigieg who he beats head to head by 20+ points.

The only people in the Democratic party who are "fractured" are party elites, not so much the actual voters.

He won’t be leading after people start seeing the ads about Venezuela and videos of homeless people defecating on the sidewalk in San Francisco.

What does socialism have to do with homeless people in San Francisco?

[RI]

484 precincts:

   Round 1   
Sanders   9709   33.2%
Biden   5695   19.5%
Buttigieg   4573   15.6%
Warren   3534   12.1%
Steyer   2643   9.0%
Klobuchar   2627   9.0%
Bennet   37   0.1%
Uncom   125   0.4%
Gabbard   100   0.3%
Yang   184   0.6%
Patrick   3   0.0%
Delaney   1   0.0%

   Round 2   
Sanders   11267   39.3%
Biden   6404   22.3%
Buttigieg   5058   17.6%
Warren   2992   10.4%
Steyer   1020   3.6%
Klobuchar   1798   6.3%
Bennet   6   0.0%
Uncom   99   0.3%
Gabbard   0   0.0%
Yang   15   0.1%
Patrick   17   0.1%
Delaney   7   0.0%

   Delegates   
Sanders   1933   46.2%
Biden   986   23.6%
Buttigieg   581   13.9%
Warren   371   8.9%
Steyer   156   3.7%
Klobuchar   141   3.4%
Bennet   4   0.1%
Uncom   4   0.1%
Gabbard   3   0.1%
Yang   0   0.0%
Patrick   1   0.0%
Delaney   0   0.0%

[Florida Man for Crime]

484 precincts:

   Round 1   
Sanders   9709   33.2%
Biden   5695   19.5%
Buttigieg   4573   15.6%
Warren   3534   12.1%
Steyer   2643   9.0%
Klobuchar   2627   9.0%
Bennet   37   0.1%
Uncom   125   0.4%
Gabbard   100   0.3%
Yang   184   0.6%
Patrick   3   0.0%
Delaney   1   0.0%

   Round 2   
Sanders   11267   39.3%
Biden   6404   22.3%
Buttigieg   5058   17.6%
Warren   2992   10.4%
Steyer   1020   3.6%
Klobuchar   1798   6.3%
Bennet   6   0.0%
Uncom   99   0.3%
Gabbard   0   0.0%
Yang   15   0.1%
Patrick   17   0.1%
Delaney   7   0.0%

   Delegates   
Sanders   1933   46.2%
Biden   986   23.6%
Buttigieg   581   13.9%
Warren   371   8.9%
Steyer   156   3.7%
Klobuchar   141   3.4%
Bennet   4   0.1%
Uncom   4   0.1%
Gabbard   3   0.1%
Yang   0   0.0%
Patrick   1   0.0%
Delaney   0   0.0%

If those #s hold up, the delegates would be:

Sanders: 24
Biden: 11
Buttigieg: 1

congressional district breakdown of delegates here: https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/NV-D

[NOVA Green]

Official results (Final Alignment)--- (13/20 Precincts reporting):

Carson City

1,459 Attendees...

Sanders: 521 Voters     (35.7%)   
Amy:      344 Voters     (23.6%) 
Pete:      211 Voters     (14.5%)
Warren:  120 Voters      (8,2%)
Steyer:    114 Voters    (7.8%)
Biden:       91 Voters     (6.2%)
Yang:         2  Voters

[NOVA Green]

So will this make it a Bernie vs Biden race now?

Been positing this for the past week or so, but strongly suspecting this will be case after Super Tuesday, where Bernie will win CA & TX, as well as possibly MN, NC, MA for starters, not to mention potential wins in places like OK.

[jaichind]

So will this make it a Bernie vs Biden race now?

Been positing this for the past week or so, but strongly suspecting this will be case after Super Tuesday, where Bernie will win CA & TX, as well as possibly MN, NC, MA for starters, not to mention potential wins in places like OK.

I actually think it is a battle between Sanders and Biden-Bloomberg where Biden and Bloomberg will be de facto fighting to get the sum of their delegates to be roughly equal to Sanders.  They do this by having both be above 15% in most states.  If they can accomplish that they can get Sanders to fall significantly short of majority of delegates.

[Bidenworth2020]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

[cvparty]

lol if no one drops out after this

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

Biden is only popular with them because he's familiar to them.

[We Live in Black and White]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

It would be concerning if he was winning literally no black voters at all like Buttigieg.

[ElectionsGuy]

lol if no one drops out after this

No one is. We'll have to wait until Super Tuesday.

[Bidenworth2020]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

Biden is only popular with them because he's familiar to them.

And Bernie is not? He ran a primary campaign four years ago and garnered 45% of the vote.

[ElectionsGuy]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

He gets an outright majority with Latino voters in an 8 person field and does as well with blacks as whites. But yes, be concerned.

[Beet]

Warren right out of the gate justifying why she wants to keep going. She's clearly talked herself into staying until the loss in Massachusetts. It's her funeral.

While the debate appears to have done little to bolster her support in Nevada, it has confirmed her status as the cult candidate for liberals.

So much time spent mulling whether Sanders' second run would be reminiscent of Ron Paul while a better comparison was lurking under our nose all along.

Cry all you want, she's in it. To call for her to drop out when 98% of the country hasn't voted yet is profoundly undemocratic. And might I remind you, you support Amy Klobuchar? If anyone should drop out after today it's her and Steyer.

[junior chįmp]

Biden choking like a dog yet again

[DrScholl]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

Black voters are clearly the establishment, so that's not a concern. In seriousness, if black voters are being dismissed moving forward because they didn't vote for Sanders and he gets the nomination, then that would be trouble in November. A Democratic nominee cannot win a general election without decent black turnout in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[MaxQue]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

That comment is racist towards Latinos.

[libertpaulian]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

Black voters are clearly the establishment, so that's not a concern. In seriousness, if black voters are being dismissed moving forward because they didn't vote for Sanders and he gets the nomination, then that would be trouble in November. A Democratic nominee cannot win a general election without decent black turnout in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

If Bernie is the nominee, Pennsylvania is already gone anyway, so Black turnout there won't matter.  Every single registered Black voter in the state could turn out, and Bernie would still lose, due to his position on fracking.  Bernie would get demolished in Western Pennsylvania.

[super6646]

Time to take Biden out back lmfao...

Seriously, what an embarrassment. Wasn't he leading in polling in Nevada just a couple weeks back?

[Bidenworth2020]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

Black voters are clearly the establishment, so that's not a concern. In seriousness, if black voters are being dismissed moving forward because they didn't vote for Sanders and he gets the nomination, then that would be trouble in November. A Democratic nominee cannot win a general election without decent black turnout in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Exactly. Bernie can and almost certainly will win the primary if the current numbers hold among other demos, but AA's-- democrats most loyal voters-- will have been denied their candidate of choice.

[n1240]

If those #s hold up, the delegates would be:

Sanders: 24
Biden: 11
Buttigieg: 1

congressional district breakdown of delegates here: https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/NV-D

They seem to be using different numbers than the NSDP for their calculations, this is what I have based on the NSDP numbers:

CD1: Sanders 4 Biden 1
CD2: Sanders 4 Biden 2 Buttigieg 2
CD3: Sanders 3 Buttigieg 2 Biden 1
CD4: Sanders 3 Biden 3
PLEO: Sanders 3 Biden 2
At-Large: Sanders 5 Biden 3

Total:
Sanders 22
Biden 10
Buttigieg 4

[Storr]

Is it not at least a bit concerning that the frontrunner is losing black voters by double digits?

Black voters are clearly the establishment, so that's not a concern. In seriousness, if black voters are being dismissed moving forward because they didn't vote for Sanders and he gets the nomination, then that would be trouble in November. A Democratic nominee cannot win a general election without decent black turnout in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

If Bernie is the nominee, Pennsylvania is already gone anyway, so Black turnout there won't matter.  Every single registered Black voter in the state could turn out, and Bernie would still lose, due to his position on fracking.  Bernie would get demolished in Western Pennsylvania.

Lol. He doesn't have to win Western Pennsylvania to win Pennsylvania, just look at 2018.