The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[brucejoel99]

Another great prediction from brucejoel99, lol

Alright y'all, it's officially April 16th, Election Day, in Alberta so you know what that means: it's final prediction time! Please feel free to post your predictions of how you think the election will have played out by this time tomorrow.

As for me, I'm gonna say screw it, go w/ my heart (likely stupidly), & roll the dice to say:
NDP 43 (41.3%)
UCP 43 (39.4%)
AP 1 - Clark (12%)
LIB 0 (3.2%)
Freedom 0 (2.2%)

NDP minority government (possibly w/ Greg Clark providing confidence & supply), just b/c it'd be amazing to hopefully see the NDP snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

I don't even recall why the qualifier of "Another" was apparently required for this post lol

[brucejoel99]

This display name.

Lol ok

Never count out the Comeback Kid.

[brucejoel99]

This post

https://i.imgur.com/rGdxdXx.png

Even I have to concede that OP literally said "Barring some kind of miracle."

[brucejoel99]

An oldie but a goodie:

Biden had his chance, he blew it (it's unclear if he or a top aid decided to plagerize a speech by Neil Kanock).

[brucejoel99]

Speaking of goodies:

GA is actually looking like it's going to come down to 1% either way. The votes are coming in around metro ATL and they are not good for Trump vs. 2016 and 2018.

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Christ. Stop. Just stop

What's your thinking? You can quote me on this. Look at the margins and swings from 2016 coming out of Fulton, Dekalb, Gwinnett, Cobb. Even Cherokee and Fayette...

Called it

You called nothing. It’s NOT HAPPENING. You’ll see. Quote me. Write it down

[brucejoel99]

In light of Doug Jones' magnificent time in the Senate coming to an end:

There's a very reasonable argument that we should just play it safe and make Strange the nominee, rather than enter the high-risk high-reward situation of Moore vs. Jones.

[brucejoel99]

Sometimes, you just have to cringe at yourself:

Rachel Bitecofer is a QUEEN & all of you non-believers will be begging for her mercy come the morning of November 4th!

[brucejoel99]

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE!

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

[brucejoel99]

NYT on Bidenworld.

Those around Mr. Biden would not speculate about what might happen to the groups if he entered the 2020 race. But at least one set of plans has already been shelved.

When the Biden Foundation applied to the I.R.S. for tax-exempt status in February 2016, it stated that one mission would be to “educate the public regarding Vice President Biden’s career in public service” by building “a first-of-its-kind vice-presidential library and museum for the study of the vice presidency.”

Then Donald J. Trump was elected, perversely reviving Mr. Biden’s three-decade dream of winning the presidency, a job that comes with its own library. “Since that time,” said Mark Gitenstein, the foundation’s president, “the board of the Biden Foundation determined that was no longer a relevant objective.”

Oh, he's running.

Biden may run, but he's not going get anywhere near the nomination. In fact, I bet he doesn't do any better than he did in 2008.

[brucejoel99]

Sometimes, you just have to cringe at yourself:

Rachel Bitecofer is a QUEEN & all of you non-believers will be begging for her mercy come the morning of November 4th!

Honestly respect to you for being big enough to lean into self deprication, I did not expect that and I am impressed. It’s about time for my sig to come down anyways, so Imma replace it.

Perhaps you had me confused with the poster formerly known as the 35th Vice President of the United States

[brucejoel99]

Read my lips:

The Republicans are not going to win IA-2. Anyone who says otherwise is either a dumbass, someone who doesn't live in Iowa, or someone who wants to sell you an agenda.

I may have technically been wrong, but I don't regret it. Miller-Meeks literally won by Gore 2000 numbers, and you seriously cannot blame me for not trusting this outlier poll which had IA-2 to the right of IA-3, even if that did end up being the case.

I don't think anybody's blaming you. Your post just happens to be a prime example of "exquisitely aged content"

[brucejoel99]

No need to wait for this one.

If Democrats gain control of the Senate, then the filibuster will be eliminated & they'll do all of these things. If not, the only thing that happens is a new justice being confirmed to replace Breyer (thereby not changing the ideological balance of the Court) & maybe an infrastructure package. I'm sure there'll be another COVID stimulus package in any event, but whether or not it includes $2K checks is entirely dependent on Senate control.

manchin will not vote to abolish the filibuster.

This also belongs here for the concept of a Republican Senate taking up a nomination to replace Breyer.

Incorrect, given that Senate Republicans would have no incentive to not take up a nomination to replace Breyer & all the incentive to do so. Not allowing any decent judge who gets nominated to be confirmed & holding the seat open for the entirety of a Biden presidency would just be an unnecessary political headache when the ideological leaning of the Court wouldn't even be in jeopardy: replace Breyer with a Kruger or a Jackson & the ideological balance of the Court stays the same, 6-3 in conservatives' (& 5-4 in arch-conservatives') favor. Not to mention, he'd probably even get bipartisan brownie points from the American people for it, since it'd give him the opportunity to say "see, we Senate Republicans are fair. We let Joe Biden appoint somebody to the highest court."

[brucejoel99]

No need to wait for this one.

If Democrats gain control of the Senate, then the filibuster will be eliminated & they'll do all of these things. If not, the only thing that happens is a new justice being confirmed to replace Breyer (thereby not changing the ideological balance of the Court) & maybe an infrastructure package. I'm sure there'll be another COVID stimulus package in any event, but whether or not it includes $2K checks is entirely dependent on Senate control.

manchin will not vote to abolish the filibuster.

Or this one:

in fact, the 5 vote majority in the house may be even more of an issue than joe manchin. Not hard at all to find 5 house dems who represent wealthy business districts who will oppose tax increases.  

Dude, seriously, you're approaching MM-levels of stubbornly refusing to stop being incorrect here.

I will have my left testicle surgically removed and provide medical proof to this board (in form of a document, not anatomical photos)  if manchin votes to remove filibuster.

For posterity's sake:

[brucejoel99]

If liberals had spent half as much time trying to actually win the election as they did making up stuff about what Trump would do if he lost, they might have beaten him.

[brucejoel99]

I know that this is supposed to be a compilation thread for posts that were NOT all that prescient in hindsight, but I just couldn't find a better thread to post this in (so if somebody could please point me to a better thread for such a legitimately prescient post as the following, that'd be much-appreciated!):

I know it sounds ridiculous but politics is big for me. I truly wanted to see some decent conservative policy implementation and now it looks like nothing will get done before the dems take the house, and that makes trump a lameduck for 2 years until he loses reelection.

[brucejoel99]

Some goodies about the President that I just stumbled upon:

When he was considering getting in, I said that he probably wasn't the best choice since he had little luck running for President before. Looks like I was right.

This whole debacle is so hilarious because Biden probably would've been a serious contender in Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada (etc.) if he made even 0.001% of the effort a viable presidential candidate is supposed to make on the campaign trail. Imagine if he appeared in public more than once a month or didn't call voters ugly/tell them to vote for his opponents? Even for someone as totally decrepit as Biden the sheer laziness he's displayed on this campaign is surreal.

Honestly, Biden's campaign, I think, is probably best comparable to Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Led national polls the whole way, but as more of a placeholder/name recognition thing, rather than actual enthusiasm. Collapsed as soon as actual voting happened because he was always a paper tiger, with placeholder national poll answers masking a terrible campaign and a mediocre candidate (there's a reason he got nowhere in 1988 and 2008.)

 Amusingly, Biden basically ran on "A noun, a verb and Barack Obama", much like Giuliani ran on "A noun, a verb and 9/11."

With 36% in and Biden trailing in fifth place with 9%, I can say with certainty his campaign is effectively over. Amazing that he was leading in the national polls until two weeks ago.

Et tu, GMac? (feat. from heatcharger what would perhaps turn out to be the most prescient NH primary night analysis):

Yep.  Biden is over.  Totally incompetent execution.  These are embarrassing results for a campaign that's supposed to be run by some of the best in the biz, and I would never trust a campaign that executes like this to beat Trump.

It's a shame, Biden is a really great guy and would have been a good president.  He has by far the most complete resume and best track record of success in the race, represents a diverse and winning coalition, and holds positions that Democrats can run on and win.  He's been treated like absolute dogsh*t by everyone this campaign, especially the media, and persevered for a year only to implode because the folks running his campaign couldn't drive turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all good choices for the nominee, in that order IMO.  I'm on board Bloomberg 2020 at this point.

I really don't think you've thought this through. Buttigieg just doesn't have it with black voters and lacks the charisma needed to connect. I like Klobuchar's chances of finding a winning coalition better, but she's got a long way to go. But if you think Biden's campaign is proving to be a paper tiger, Bloomberg is a bigger one who just happens to have an unseemly sum of money to waste. He hasn't been in a single debate and is still negative nationally before the opposition onslaught.

I've soured on Bloomberg hard in the past week -- his strategy is moronic and threatening to detonate the party. Let's be real, there's no real path for him to get a majority of delegates. The scenario where he gets 30-35% of delegates and somehow overcomes extreme obstacles to get to 50% at a contested convention is a nightmare and you know it.

His entry into the race and his spending have made it astronomically more likely that there's a contested convention by tanking Biden's prospects, and he's an extremely flawed general election candidate if he makes it there. I'm admittedly bitter and more annoyed by the former, as I quite like Joe Biden and a hell of a lot more than anyone else in the race. But I don't think the moderates have the stomach for what's gonna happen next if they abandon him.

It's looking dire for the Democratic Party. Even if you're a Bernie Sanders fan you'd have to admit his time as frontrunner hasn't been so glorious.

It's problems all around.  But Biden has now dramatically underperformed in both contests and his campaign hasn't shown any capability to recover.  If that's the kind of campaign he's running, he won't beat Trump, and I care about that more than anything else.

Sanders will not only lose to Trump, but bring the party down with him.  Warren's campaign is dead in the water.  That leaves us with Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg.  Of the three, I think Bloomberg is clearly the most capable when it comes to taking on Trump, and he already has quadruple the black support of Buttigieg and Klobuchar combined.  I'll have to see him on the debate stage before I'm certain, but Bloomberg feels like the best bet.  None of them are good bets though.  I really wanted those "Biden +6 in Ohio, -2 in Texas" poll results to play out.  But if he continues dramatically underperforming in these primary states, I'm not willing to sign onto that risk in the general election.

Featuring another voice of sanity, this time tinged in (relative) optimism:

No nominee since the McGovern-Fraser Commission reforms of 1972 has ever done as poorly as placing 4th and 5th in both of the first two states respectively. Biden needs a miracle.

Twinned with a voice of sanity tinged in (relative) pessimism:

Not gonna say it's over until NV and SC vote, but Biden's campaign is pretty much dead now. Go Pete, I guess?

Feat. John Dule:

[Snipped Above]

This is so demonstrably untrue on every level; Biden has no track record of electoral success and he clearly does not represent any kind of coalition, let alone a "winning" one. The media has treated him with kid's gloves this entire cycle, as have his fellow candidates (with the notable exception of Harris). The fault here is not with the campaign. It is with the candidate. And the fact that you don't understand that even now does not bode well for your prognostications of "electability" in the future. Biden was an embarrassment from the get-go.

And last but not least:

I guess its time for me to stop tracking Biden vs Trump polls state by state as it seems Biden is finished, it looks like it will be a Trump vs Bernie contest. Trump has knocked out the democratic candidate that has polled the best against him on average it seems, the attacks over Ukraine surely helped weaken Biden.

[brucejoel99]

What a mess. Anyway, people shouldn’t be writing Biden’s obituary yet. Yes, it looks like he did terribly, but last I checked, SC is still coming up, and Buttigieg is at 0% among black voters (and Sanders isn’t exactly doing great, either.) Assuming what we know is right, this hurts Biden (less than it would have if the results had come in properly) but unless another candidate scoops up a lot of his support, he’s nowhere near out of the race.

Yeah, Biden underperforming is definitely a far less talked about news story right now than it otherwise would've been, & that's good for him considering he doesn't really need Iowa at all to win the primary.

He's still done, though. He surely won't win New Hampshire or Nevada, either.

You dont come back from a 4th or 5th place finish in Iowa if you’re a Democrat. He’s done.

[brucejoel99]

Congresswoman Turner would be awesome.

She's probably looking at a 4th or 5th place finish, maybe a distant 3rd at best.

Oof, rip

[brucejoel99]

Harris will not be VP. If picked, she would ensure that the entire ticket gets dragged down to defeat. It would be a disaster.

[brucejoel99]

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51057171647_40b0261f8d_c.jpg

Here it is in quote form for a direct link to the thread:

Electoral College wise....it was an absolute LANDSLIDE for Trump. in 2020 I wouldn't be shocked if one of NV, CO or NH turns red as well.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1329827474931216384

Okay, Deval Patrick yesterday & now Merrick Garland of all people today? Yeah, they're definitely at the "Doug Jones is probably the pick but let's just throw some random names out there for the hell of it to see how people react" stage & nobody can convince me otherwise.

Don't get me wrong, if they actually take Garland off the bench to be AG, I'll eat my hat. But this post just isn't going to a white guy not named Doug Jones.

[brucejoel99]

Basically everything in the first 200 pages of the Biden campaign thread. It seemed like everyone on the site had decided that Biden was going to go down in flames before 2020 or lose the general if he won the primary. I forgot how silly it got at times.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=313625.0

If he wasn't Obama's Magic Grandpa he would have lost the former, and if Covid hadn't happened he most likely would have lost the latter.

The usage of if being operative there, of course. This is the thread for "exquisitely aged content," after all.

[brucejoel99]

His launch video demonstrates how similar to Hillary it looks like he's going to run. Only one event/key issue brought up during his video (Charlottesville) and nothing about the economy or things that people are impacted by or care about. He went for Trump's judgment and character rather than his policies and track record. Vague platitudes about America and its people. I don't think he'll win the nomination, but if he does I think he'll lose to Trump.

[brucejoel99]

His launch video demonstrates how similar to Hillary it looks like he's going to run. Only one event/key issue brought up during his video (Charlottesville) and nothing about the economy or things that people are impacted by or care about. He went for Trump's judgment and character rather than his policies and track record. Vague platitudes about America and its people. I don't think he'll win the nomination, but if he does I think he'll lose to Trump.

To be fair, without Trump's botched handling of COVID, Trump likely would have won reelection, and Democrats likely would have gone with someone other than Biden. Obviously, we'll never know for sure, but this post was hardly absurd for April 2019.

Yeah, but to be fairer, this isn't the absurd thread. It's the exquisitely aged content thread, & the content is definitionally "exquisitely aged content" in the obviously sarcastic sense that said phrase was originally invoked in this thread's creation.

[brucejoel99]

Yikes, just 12 days:

I admire the cockiness in this message thread about a man who may well fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat.

And we admire your cockiness in thinking he'll ever get the chance.