PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Calthrina950]

"Electability" and January 6th does not sound like a winning general election message.

Still holding out hope that we can pull a victory out of our asses. Maybe Lamb is good for the primary but for the general he seems like an accident waiting to happen.

I've said before that both Lamb and Fetterman are unimpressive. The Democratic primary field in Pennsylvania is a very weak one.

[Calthrina950]

Never thought I'd see this headline, but here we are...

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1508475797534826506?cxt=HHwWlICzhdyvl-8pAAAA

To "lead" the people of Pennsylvania? He's running for Senate, not Governor. It would have been more appropriate for him to say that he will "represent" the people of Pennsylvania. But at any rate, Rick Perry actually competed on ABC's Dancing with the Stars after resigning as Energy Secretary. Obviously, he didn't get that far.

[Calthrina950]

Lamb officially goes there.

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1509667056760799234

Fetterman certainly does fit the trope of the burly, bearded, rough-looking, middle-aged, blue collar white male who loves his guns and his country, hates Muslims, blacks, illegals, and gays, drives a pickup truck, drinks beer, and is either a factory worker, truck driver, construction worker, contractor, or miner. And his actions in this incident certainly exemplify the trope. I see and deal with customers that look just like him at my job on a daily basis. Of course, as I'm very well aware at this point, you can't entirely judge a person by their appearance.

[Calthrina950]

Well, at least he's decided to drop bullsh*tting the good people of my former state.

What do you think of Lamb's recent shift in direction? Of this attack? What does this say about his prospects and the state of the race?

[Calthrina950]

Well, at least he's decided to drop bullsh*tting the good people of my former state.

What do you think of Lamb's recent shift in direction? Of this attack? What does this say about his prospects and the state of the race?

I think it's a great thing. Fetterman is an existential threat to the nomination, not to mention a virulent racist. He's just too far left for the state and it's about time someone finally said it.

I know it's April Fool's Day, but I was looking for a more serious response.

[Calthrina950]

Clearly somebody heard the criticisms. Conor Lamb joined all but two Democrats (Sawx's favorite reps, Cuellar and Pappas) in voting for the MORE Act.

https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2022107

Now if only he would run on federally legalizing weed! But this is a good step for him. I don't care his motivations, if he's willing to vote for legislation that helps people, then good for him.

Yeah, I think we crossposted that. Credit where credit is due - while I am still a bit cynical I'm not going to argue with reality here.

As for Pappas, I was willing to give him a second chance. The clown is clearly bought off by the police lobby (if you read between the lines) and got told no. Suffice to say this was not what I voted for when I voted for him in 2018 and 2020.

We are watching him. We will remember him. And come November, we will replace him.

I will repeat my questions from earlier though. What do you think Lamb's attack against Fetterman means? And what is the state of the race now?

[Calthrina950]

Hay, Conor, quick word mate: Every Democrat is a socialist as far as the Republicans are concerned.

I'm convinced Lamb would lose by more than Fetterman if he were the Democratic nominee at this point. He is such a bland, uninspiring, and opportunistic candidate, as his recent attacks against Fetterman show, and has few or no substantive accomplishments to speak of. He would not energize turnout among the Democratic base and wouldn't be able to sway over a sufficient number of swing voters to win.

[Calthrina950]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

Lamb, if he is the nominee (which looks unlikely at this point), won't lose by as much as they did, but it would still be a clear loss.

[Calthrina950]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

Lamb, if he is the nominee (which looks unlikely at this point), won't lose by as much as they did, but it would still be a clear loss.

Still, like them, he would be a Democrat who throw away a House seat for a Senate run in a year where a Democrat clearly can’t win a senate race.  I knew this back in July 2021 when he got in.  Not sure why he and others didn’t know this based on midterm election history. 

You're right, but ambitious politicians often let the facts get ahead of them.

[Calthrina950]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

Lamb, if he is the nominee (which looks unlikely at this point), won't lose by as much as they did, but it would still be a clear loss.

Still, like them, he would be a Democrat who throw away a House seat for a Senate run in a year where a Democrat clearly can’t win a senate race.  I knew this back in July 2021 when he got in.  Not sure why he and others didn’t know this based on midterm election history. 

You're right, but ambitious politicians often let the facts get ahead of them.

Nobody at the DCCC met with him and explained this to him?

I'm assuming not.

[Calthrina950]

Lol you guys are arguing about which guy will lose by 2% to the Republican candidate.

2% is a pretty generous estimate at this point.

Not sure why people are acting as if PA is going to be decided by like 5%. It's a red year but given the GOP's terrible bench and PA usually being close either way, it's likely going to be <2% in either direction.

I’m curious what kind of candidate does the GOP need for Dems in this forum to not think it’s a terrible bench? There’s no way that those two are much worse than the benches in Arizona, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Georgia. Maybe they’re slightly worse than Laxalt (but people think he’s a terrible candidate too). They’re absolutely better than Perdue/Loeffler/Tillis/McSally.

Also I believe Dems won both senate and governor races by blowout in 2018. I’m not disagreeing that the  GOP candidate likely wins by a couple points but it seems very plausible that they win by 5-7 especially if the popular vote is that lopsided and there’s low black turnout

My assumption is that the good Republican candidate which Atlas Democrats such as wbrocks67 have in mind would be an establishment or moderate Republican. Perhaps someone like John Katko, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Brian Fitzpatrick, or Adam Kinzinger, to give an example. But even such a Republican would be denounced extensively on here (like Glenn Youngkin was, even though he comes closest to fitting this "mold"), and they would be despised or at best only tolerated by the Republican base.

Given that swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin currently have, and in the past have had, elected Republicans who are much more conservative than the ones who would fit this "ideal" mold, and given that voters care less about voting records and more about how candidates present themselves, I'm not sure that their argument would hold water.

[Calthrina950]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

[Calthrina950]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

I'm sure in the end they mostly will, but given the intense dislike that appears to be towards Oz among some of the GOP electorate, you have to wonder if there's a chunk won't be too excited to go out and vote for him (especially if there's another terrible GOP candidate on the GOV side). I think the point here is that PA will likely be very close either way, so every vote counts, and Oz is lucky this is a red year b/c it appears that a lot of his own voters appear very apathetic to him.

But you're right, I think a lot of it has to do with the "RINO" label and carpet-bagging. Oz appears incredibly disingenuous with his entire schtick right now, and it appears even GOP voters are seeing that.

I've gone on to conservative websites to see their reaction to his candidacy, and it is largely negative. Many Republicans believe Trump is making a mistake by endorsing Oz. Perhaps they are fearful that once in the Senate, he will become another Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, or Lisa Murkowski. Or perhaps they remember Arlen Specter, who was too moderate for the Republican base, who almost lost the Republican primary to Pat Toomey in 2004 (and was bailed out by the support he got from Bush and Santorum), and who switched parties in 2010 because he knew he wouldn't win the Republican primary again. It's likely Republican voters don't want to repeat what happened with Specter.

[Calthrina950]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

I'm sure in the end they mostly will, but given the intense dislike that appears to be towards Oz among some of the GOP electorate, you have to wonder if there's a chunk won't be too excited to go out and vote for him (especially if there's another terrible GOP candidate on the GOV side). I think the point here is that PA will likely be very close either way, so every vote counts, and Oz is lucky this is a red year b/c it appears that a lot of his own voters appear very apathetic to him.

But you're right, I think a lot of it has to do with the "RINO" label and carpet-bagging. Oz appears incredibly disingenuous with his entire schtick right now, and it appears even GOP voters are seeing that.

I've gone on to conservative websites to see their reaction to his candidacy, and it is largely negative. Many Republicans believe Trump is making a mistake by endorsing Oz. Perhaps they are fearful that once in the Senate, he will become another Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, or Lisa Murkowski. Or perhaps they remember Arlen Specter, who was too moderate for the Republican base, who almost lost the Republican primary to Pat Toomey in 2004 (and was bailed out by the support he got from Bush and Santorum), and who switched parties in 2010 because he knew he wouldn't win the Republican primary again. It's likely Republican voters don't want to repeat what happened with Specter.

Though do GOP voters have that much trust in McCormick? Because IMO he's been just as disingenuous with his 180 into total MAGA as well.

McCormick isn't any better than Oz, but he has been running an extensive number of advertisements and seems to have garnered more support from Trump's associates and former subordinates than Oz himself has. It may just be a matter of "choosing the lesser evil" for some Republican primary voters.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1566227897500815360
Trump is hilarious, Oz should be calling him a stoner instead of a socialist.

I watched these clips of Trump's rally, and Trump does seem to be recapturing much of the "fire" and "spark" he had when he ran for President the first time in 2016. I can certainly understand why the base continues to remain firmly behind him, in spite of all that he has done and all that has happened over the last seven years.

Appearing with Trump is basically the final death knell for the Oz campaign at this point.

I'm of two views on this. On the one hand, Oz has struggled to consolidate the Republican base. Polls have shown that he's running a few points behind Mastriano, and many in the base do not trust Oz, considering him to be a RINO. This is because of his celebrity past, his prior policy positions, and his carpetbagging. That is to say nothing of probable Islamophobia, due to his name and religious background. So Oz needed to appear with Trump to increase their confidence in him. On the other hand, this could turn off swing voters in the Philadelphia Collar Counties that Oz needs for victory, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Fetterman ad attacking Oz, and using the image of him with Trump to that effect.

[Calthrina950]

Trump only appealing to the base is the feature, not the bug. Oz does not possess the confidence of Trump's base.

Apparently, the rally attendees were more enthusiastic for Mastriano than they were for Oz, and Trump referred to Oz as "that guy" after the latter had finished giving his stump speech. I wouldn't be surprised if Oz underperforms Mastriano in the rural, heavily Republican base areas in November, while slightly outperforming him in Philadelphia and its suburbs.

[Calthrina950]

Trump only appealing to the base is the feature, not the bug. Oz does not possess the confidence of Trump's base.

Apparently, the rally attendees were more enthusiastic for Mastriano than they were for Oz, and Trump referred to Oz as "that guy" after the latter had finished giving his stump speech. I wouldn't be surprised if Oz underperforms Mastriano in the rural, heavily Republican base areas in November, while slightly outperforming him in Philadelphia and its suburbs.

I will add that I also believe that while Oz/Trump rallies will help Oz will a lot of voters, they will not save him from his horrible approval numbers or the very easy-to-see perception that he is a fraud.

Agreed. Oz is certainly not a staunch conservative or ardent Trumpist at heart, and is only embracing Trump for his own personal and electoral gain. And that is precisely why the base distrusts him, and why he is toxic to swing voters. Republicans could have put this race away by now had they nominated McCormick or one of the row officers, like DeFoor or Garrity.

[Calthrina950]

And there it is

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1567238057811648519

This is certainly another example of Oz's flip-flopping. I don't agree with all of Fetterman's policy positions, but he's been consistent about them. Oz has shown that he is willing to abandon whatever is inconvenient for electoral gain.

[Calthrina950]

Maybe not the best thing to say when you’re already struggling with the MAGA base
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1567182934393688064?s=21&t=6s5SQgj5frJ...

As I noted the other day, the base had more enthusiasm for Mastriano at the Trump rally than they did for Oz. I certainly don't see this helping Oz with the base, although this is a position that would be palatable to swing voters. Oz is in a "damned if he does, damned if he doesn't" scenario. Any position that he could take could alienate swing voters, and the next position could alienate the base. Mastriano, who is all in on a base-only strategy and has no interest in winning over swing voters, doesn't have the same kind of problems.

[Calthrina950]

Maybe not the best thing to say when you’re already struggling with the MAGA base
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1567182934393688064?s=21&t=6s5SQgj5frJ...

As I noted the other day, the base had more enthusiasm for Mastriano at the Trump rally than they did for Oz. I certainly don't see this helping Oz with the base, although this is a position that would be palatable to swing voters. Oz is in a "damned if he does, damned if he doesn't" scenario. Any position that he could take could alienate swing voters, and the next position could alienate the base. Mastriano, who is all in on a base-only strategy and has no interest in winning over swing voters, doesn't have the same kind of problems.

I'm holding onto my prediction that Mastriano overperforms Oz

I'm leaning towards that view as well, especially since Mastriano has run ahead of Oz in every poll I've seen to date.

[Calthrina950]

Maybe not the best thing to say when you’re already struggling with the MAGA base
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1567182934393688064?s=21&t=6s5SQgj5frJ...

As I noted the other day, the base had more enthusiasm for Mastriano at the Trump rally than they did for Oz. I certainly don't see this helping Oz with the base, although this is a position that would be palatable to swing voters. Oz is in a "damned if he does, damned if he doesn't" scenario. Any position that he could take could alienate swing voters, and the next position could alienate the base. Mastriano, who is all in on a base-only strategy and has no interest in winning over swing voters, doesn't have the same kind of problems.

I'm holding onto my prediction that Mastriano overperforms Oz

I'm leaning towards that view as well, especially since Mastriano has run ahead of Oz in every poll I've seen to date.

I would also not be surprised if there are some Mastriano/senate third party voters as well which will hurt Oz.

Who are the third-party candidates running for Senate in Pennsylvania? I haven't heard anything about that.

[Calthrina950]

Tilt D -> Tilt R -> Tilt D

If Oz loses, I wonder if he goes back to his talk show.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1567956665751818243

1. Imagine if a Democrat said this.

2. Oz is not an immigrant.

Nikki Haley is out of her depth. The Republican base doesn't particularly like her, and any crossover appeal to Democrats she had, arising from the Charleston shooting, was eliminated by her service in the Trump Administration.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1567956665751818243

1. Imagine if a Democrat said this.

2. Oz is not an immigrant.

Nikki Haley is out of her depth. The Republican base doesn't particularly like her, and any crossover appeal to Democrats she had, arising from the Charleston shooting, was eliminated by her service in the Trump Administration.

She's yesterday's news.

True, and there's also this photograph of her with Oz at that campaign rally:

https://twitter.com/Andres__Weller/status/1567957915440496640

That crowd certainly isn't diverse, and seems to be composed mostly of middle aged to older white people. That's not the kind of coalition that will help Oz win.

[Calthrina950]

If the dog cruelty story pans out, Oz is toast.  Burnt toast.

I thought I had seen enough negative stories about Oz and Mastriano. The Republicans certainly screwed up by nominating these two. They'd be on a much smoother path with McCormick and Barletta.