PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1513587096644210689

The Copium Tour continues!

Time to move this race to Safe R?
https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513579838342377473?s=21

No surprise that the failing Philadelphia machine, which tried to coronate Cigna Conor over Malcolm Kenyatta, is virtue signaling about COVID at the expense of the ticket. They can't even rig a race right!

Imagine actually believing that someone endorsing a candidate you don’t support is the same as rigging an election

[wbrocks67]

Important to note that the GBAO poll is a Fetterman internal. I really wish there was more public polling of this race, and not just the primary but the GE as well.

RE: Philly mandates. It's funny how people who don't live here talk about the city. You'd be surprised at the amount of masks still worn before the announcement. Some people will be annoyed, but a lot of people in the city, especially minorities from what I've personally seen, have been masking all throughout, even when the mandate took a break.

[Schiff for Senate]

Oh, in case it wasn't clear, I'm supporting Fetterman for the win.

Lamb is a weak, fake moderate whose schtick everybody can see through. He is uncharismatic and has few (if any!) real views. He is the Kyrsten Sinema of PA and has literally zero crossover appeal because of it (it only hurts him with the Democrats who see through his shapeshifting views on policy and his being akin to a chameleon). On the other hand, objectively, Fetterman is more liberal/progressive and he's actually got views, and charisma. I know who the better candidate is and clearly, so does PA. I like real moderates - not politicians without principles, which is the category Lamb falls into. And lastly, I think Fetterman's a much better candidate with a much better chance at victory - I could see him actually doing better in rural areas where his earnestness and progressive populism is regarded more highly than Lamb's fake moderatism and his being a lapdog of neoliberalism and corporatism. It comes to me as no surprise that Fetterman's winning big - hopefully he keeps the lead - and it annoys me that a single Democrat seriously supports Lamb over Fetterman. They are DINOs (stupid DINOs at that) who, ironically/fittingly, are close to being extinct (and are an endangered species). I detest Lamb's shapeshifting of views for political expediency so much I would probably support McCormick over him (because McCormick at least has some consistent beliefs) in the general if it came to that.

Lamb is a WEAK chameleon.
Fetterman is STRONG and has a record of actually winning (and, perhaps importantly, also a record of actually having views on policy that don't always change depending on which way the wind is blowing for him).

b.) Citation that he'd be a stronger candidate than Fetterman? Fetterman actually has a solid record of winning statewide and a statewide profile. And you don't do well simply by being 'moderate' (especially not if you're very obviously not a genuine moderate and just an unprincipled career politician with views that change depending on which way the wind is blowing) - you also need to have charisma. Conor Lamb is very clearly an 'establishment' career politican and chameleon who will logically have less appeal in rurals than would the more charismatic, economically progressive, and populist Fetterman. And if you want other reasons as to why Chameleon Conor would be weaker in the general than Fetterman, just think of the attack ads by Oz/McCormick that would slam Chameleon Conor for being a chameleon with shapeshifting views and no principles (and they'd have a point). Also, the base will be a lot less excited to turn out for a guy like Lamb than they would be for Fetterman.

So...Fetterman is more liberal (and consistently liberal), is more popular with the base and can drive higher turnout, and might even do better than Chameleon Conor in the rurals. I don't understand how there can even be a question (let alone thinking Lamb is the answer to any question other than 'Which candidate is objectively worse?').

[Unelectable Bystander]

Honestly I think PA is going to be a media meltdown lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Time to move this race to Safe R?
https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513579838342377473?s=21

Fetterman, Lamb and Kenyatta(I know he probably won't win but just in case) need to denounce ASAP

[Schiff for Senate]

Time to move this race to Safe R?
https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513579838342377473?s=21

Fetterman, Lamb and Kenyatta(I know he probably won't win but just in case) need to denounce ASAP

No, they need to avoid coming out for or against this. They can just keep quiet and focus on campaigning. Now if they're asked point blank if they are for or against this, they might want to cautiously come out against it.

[wbrocks67]

Given he only got $1M from PA, I'm assuming most of this $4.3M is self-funding

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1514196505829249024

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Crossposting, looks like Fetterman has the primary locked up. The GOP primary, on the other hand, looks like an absolute sh*tshow:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1514549335815565312?s=20&t=0dTa4XBAiSy...

Full tabs here: https://www.getrevue.co/profile/fandmpoll/issues/franklin-marshall-poll-release-april-2022-1133315

Key items:

D Primary

Fetterman - 41%
Lamb - 17%
Kenyatta - 4%
"Someone else" - 9%
None of the above - 2%
Undecided - 26%

R Primary

Oz - 16%
McCormick - 15%
Barnette - 7%
Bartos - 6%
Sands - 5%
Bochetto - 2%
"Someone else" - 6%
Undecided - 43%(!!!)

Sample: 785 RV (356 D, 317 R, 112 I/O)
MoE: +/- 4.2%

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Seems the Congressional delegation can't quite get on the same page:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1514571682068971526?s=20&t=qxtJJTqaAFZ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lamb needs to drop out he won't win and support Fetterman just like Mrgan Harper won't win it's time to unite the party


Morgan Harper is down 31/4

Trudy Valentine is gonna be out nominee sorry Kunce and Barnes is gonna be the Nominee and Crist not Fried is gonna be nominated it's time to face the music that it's time to unite the party not run for yourself

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

[Calthrina950]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

I'm sure in the end they mostly will, but given the intense dislike that appears to be towards Oz among some of the GOP electorate, you have to wonder if there's a chunk won't be too excited to go out and vote for him (especially if there's another terrible GOP candidate on the GOV side). I think the point here is that PA will likely be very close either way, so every vote counts, and Oz is lucky this is a red year b/c it appears that a lot of his own voters appear very apathetic to him.

But you're right, I think a lot of it has to do with the "RINO" label and carpet-bagging. Oz appears incredibly disingenuous with his entire schtick right now, and it appears even GOP voters are seeing that.

[Calthrina950]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

I'm sure in the end they mostly will, but given the intense dislike that appears to be towards Oz among some of the GOP electorate, you have to wonder if there's a chunk won't be too excited to go out and vote for him (especially if there's another terrible GOP candidate on the GOV side). I think the point here is that PA will likely be very close either way, so every vote counts, and Oz is lucky this is a red year b/c it appears that a lot of his own voters appear very apathetic to him.

But you're right, I think a lot of it has to do with the "RINO" label and carpet-bagging. Oz appears incredibly disingenuous with his entire schtick right now, and it appears even GOP voters are seeing that.

I've gone on to conservative websites to see their reaction to his candidacy, and it is largely negative. Many Republicans believe Trump is making a mistake by endorsing Oz. Perhaps they are fearful that once in the Senate, he will become another Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, or Lisa Murkowski. Or perhaps they remember Arlen Specter, who was too moderate for the Republican base, who almost lost the Republican primary to Pat Toomey in 2004 (and was bailed out by the support he got from Bush and Santorum), and who switched parties in 2010 because he knew he wouldn't win the Republican primary again. It's likely Republican voters don't want to repeat what happened with Specter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conservative websites think it's 2010/14 again with 90 M votes and it was same day voting and 10% unemployment, it's 3.8 percent unemployment and 110/150VBM votes that will surely help out D's, the R nut maps are stuck in dark ages it's not gonna be a 2010 election and it's VBM 110/150M votes  and it was only 90M in 2010 with 10% unemployment

Biden isn't at 33% QU he is back in You Gov 46/49

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

I'm sure in the end they mostly will, but given the intense dislike that appears to be towards Oz among some of the GOP electorate, you have to wonder if there's a chunk won't be too excited to go out and vote for him (especially if there's another terrible GOP candidate on the GOV side). I think the point here is that PA will likely be very close either way, so every vote counts, and Oz is lucky this is a red year b/c it appears that a lot of his own voters appear very apathetic to him.

But you're right, I think a lot of it has to do with the "RINO" label and carpet-bagging. Oz appears incredibly disingenuous with his entire schtick right now, and it appears even GOP voters are seeing that.

I've gone on to conservative websites to see their reaction to his candidacy, and it is largely negative. Many Republicans believe Trump is making a mistake by endorsing Oz. Perhaps they are fearful that once in the Senate, he will become another Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, or Lisa Murkowski. Or perhaps they remember Arlen Specter, who was too moderate for the Republican base, who almost lost the Republican primary to Pat Toomey in 2004 (and was bailed out by the support he got from Bush and Santorum), and who switched parties in 2010 because he knew he wouldn't win the Republican primary again. It's likely Republican voters don't want to repeat what happened with Specter.

Though do GOP voters have that much trust in McCormick? Because IMO he's been just as disingenuous with his 180 into total MAGA as well.

[Calthrina950]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

I'm sure in the end they mostly will, but given the intense dislike that appears to be towards Oz among some of the GOP electorate, you have to wonder if there's a chunk won't be too excited to go out and vote for him (especially if there's another terrible GOP candidate on the GOV side). I think the point here is that PA will likely be very close either way, so every vote counts, and Oz is lucky this is a red year b/c it appears that a lot of his own voters appear very apathetic to him.

But you're right, I think a lot of it has to do with the "RINO" label and carpet-bagging. Oz appears incredibly disingenuous with his entire schtick right now, and it appears even GOP voters are seeing that.

I've gone on to conservative websites to see their reaction to his candidacy, and it is largely negative. Many Republicans believe Trump is making a mistake by endorsing Oz. Perhaps they are fearful that once in the Senate, he will become another Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, or Lisa Murkowski. Or perhaps they remember Arlen Specter, who was too moderate for the Republican base, who almost lost the Republican primary to Pat Toomey in 2004 (and was bailed out by the support he got from Bush and Santorum), and who switched parties in 2010 because he knew he wouldn't win the Republican primary again. It's likely Republican voters don't want to repeat what happened with Specter.

Though do GOP voters have that much trust in McCormick? Because IMO he's been just as disingenuous with his 180 into total MAGA as well.

McCormick isn't any better than Oz, but he has been running an extensive number of advertisements and seems to have garnered more support from Trump's associates and former subordinates than Oz himself has. It may just be a matter of "choosing the lesser evil" for some Republican primary voters.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trafalgar poll releasing soon. Hopefully it'll tell us a bit about how this race is playing out post-endorsement.

[wbrocks67]

Here's how Q1 fundraising went. This is just donors and excludes self-funding

Dave McCormick (R) $4.35M
John Fetterman (D) $3.10M
Conor Lamb (D) $1.75M
Mehmet Oz (R) $1.71M
Kathy Barnette (R) $357K
Malcolm Kenyatta (D) $306K
George Bochetto (R) $205K
Jeff Bartos (R) $120K
Carla Sands (R) $104K

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Here's how Q1 fundraising went. This is just donors and excludes self-funding

Dave McCormick (R) $4.35M
John Fetterman (D) $3.10M
Conor Lamb (D) $1.75M
Mehmet Oz (R) $1.71M
Kathy Barnette (R) $357K
Malcolm Kenyatta (D) $306K
George Bochetto (R) $205K
Jeff Bartos (R) $120K
Carla Sands (R) $104K

Malcolm's fundraising woes continue unfortunately. He did just go live with a TV ad, so hopefully that gives him some momentum but the lack of funds going into the home stretch is tough.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Totally dropped the ball and didn’t post anything about tonight’s debate that just wrapped up. Lamb, Fetterman, and Kenyatta participated. The long and short is that everyone pretty much stuck to their talking points. Fetterman STILL refuses to apologize for the jogger incident and seemed incredibly unpolished as a debater but was fine otherwise. Malcolm got a few really good jabs in at both Fetterman and Lamb but I’m afraid it’s too little too late for him. Lyin’ Conor Lamb is still parroting GOP talking points, giving the run around, and being bland as all get out.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Fetterman is the Dem nominee for PA-SEN. Lamb doesn't have a chance at this point.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lamb should be ahead by now with this jogger incident getting more attention. The fact he isn't shows how pathetic his campaign is